Thursday, August 14, 2025
Science
No Result
View All Result
  • Login
  • HOME
  • SCIENCE NEWS
  • CONTACT US
  • HOME
  • SCIENCE NEWS
  • CONTACT US
No Result
View All Result
Scienmag
No Result
View All Result
Home Science News Athmospheric

Making waves in hurricane prediction

August 28, 2024
in Athmospheric
Reading Time: 5 mins read
0
Aquaplanet simulation of Kelvin Waves
66
SHARES
598
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT

More accurately predicting periods of increased hurricane activity weeks in advance may become possible due to new research published this month.

Aquaplanet simulation of Kelvin Waves

Credit: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR).

More accurately predicting periods of increased hurricane activity weeks in advance may become possible due to new research published this month.

The study, led by the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR), shows that twice as many hurricanes form two days after the passing of large-scale atmospheric waves called Kelvin waves than in the days before. This finding may enable forecasters and emergency managers to anticipate clusters of hurricanes days to weeks in advance. 

The research team used an innovative computer modeling approach to tease out the influence of Kelvin waves, which are large-scale atmospheric waves that can extend more than 1,000 miles in the atmosphere and shape global weather patterns. 

“If weather forecasters can detect a Kelvin wave over the Pacific Ocean, for example, then they can anticipate that a few days after the wave there will be an uptick in hurricanes forming over the Atlantic,” said NSF NCAR scientist Rosimar Rios-Berrios, the lead author of the paper. “This would help them communicate with emergency managers and local governments who could prepare for the likelihood of an active hurricane period and alert the public. This research has the potential to save many lives.” 

The study was published in Monthly Weather Review. 

Aquaplanet 

For decades, scientists have noticed that hurricanes form in clusters followed by several weeks of little to no hurricane activity. Several studies have suggested that Kelvin waves could be responsible for the surge in hurricanes, but scientists were unable to separate out other potential factors and prove Kelvin waves were responsible. To overcome this, Rios-Berrios and her colleagues used a novel combination of computer modeling tools to confirm that Kelvin waves do indeed boost hurricane formation. 

The research team used a simulation called aquaplanet that was run on NSF NCAR’s Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), which is a next-generation computer model that can capture fine-scale weather phenomena and global-scale atmospheric patterns simultaneously.  Aquaplanet is a configuration that simulates a hypothetical world that behaves like Earth, but doesn’t have land or seasons. The simplified world acts like a lab and makes it easier to isolate the effects of Kelvin waves on hurricane formation. 

The scientists ran the simulations on the Cheyenne supercomputer at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center.

To investigate the connection between Kelvin waves and hurricanes, the research team measured the number of days between hurricane formation and Kelvin wave crests. The measurements showed a significant peak after two days, with hurricane development being twice as likely. Because the aquaplanet simulations capture the physical process of hurricane formation, the results go beyond correlation and suggest that Kelvin waves are actually impacting hurricane formation.

The new study also emphasizes the importance of recent research that Rios-Berrios co-authored with NSF NCAR postdoc Quinton Lawton about the need to improve the ability of weather forecast models to simulate Kelvin waves.

“I started this research on Kelvin waves in 2017. It was a big project that took years to go from an idea to scientific results and really highlights why this type of research is so valuable,” said Rios-Berrios. “There are still a lot of gaps in scientific knowledge about how hurricanes form and research like this helps us narrow where scientists should focus to better understand these powerful storms.” 

About the article: 

Title: Modulation of tropical cyclogenesis by convectively coupled Kelvin waves
Authors: Rosimar Rios-Berrios, Brian Tang, Christopher Davis, and Jonathan Martinez
Journal: Monthly Weather Review

 

Web | X | Instagram | Facebook 

This material is based upon work supported by the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, a major facility sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation and managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF.



Journal

Monthly Weather Review

DOI

10.1175/MWR-D-24-0052.1

Method of Research

Computational simulation/modeling

Article Title

Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis by Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves

Article Publication Date

1-Aug-2024

Share26Tweet17
Previous Post

Lackluster prioritization of the health sector in government spending and dwindling donor contributions drive slow growth in health spending in Sub-Saharan Africa

Next Post

New pancreatic cancer treatment proves effective in shrinking, clearing tumors

Related Posts

blank
Athmospheric

Arctic Reindeer Populations May Plummet by 80% by 2100, Study Warns

August 13, 2025
blank
Athmospheric

Study Reveals Soybeans May Inherit Parental Stress Memories

August 13, 2025
blank
Athmospheric

North American Monarch Butterflies Rely on Magnetic Fields and Cold Temperatures for Migration, Study Finds — Climate Change Could Disrupt This Navigation Mechanism

August 13, 2025
blank
Athmospheric

Mexican Cave Stalagmites Uncover Length and Intensity of Drought During Maya Collapse

August 13, 2025
blank
Athmospheric

‘Revolutionary’ Seafloor Fiber Optic Sensing Uncovers How Ice Collapse Accelerates Greenland’s Glacial Retreat

August 13, 2025
blank
Athmospheric

Revealing Fresh Insights into Earth’s Upper Atmosphere

August 13, 2025
Next Post

New pancreatic cancer treatment proves effective in shrinking, clearing tumors

  • Mothers who receive childcare support from maternal grandparents show more parental warmth, finds NTU Singapore study

    Mothers who receive childcare support from maternal grandparents show more parental warmth, finds NTU Singapore study

    27533 shares
    Share 11010 Tweet 6881
  • University of Seville Breaks 120-Year-Old Mystery, Revises a Key Einstein Concept

    947 shares
    Share 379 Tweet 237
  • Bee body mass, pathogens and local climate influence heat tolerance

    641 shares
    Share 256 Tweet 160
  • Researchers record first-ever images and data of a shark experiencing a boat strike

    507 shares
    Share 203 Tweet 127
  • Warm seawater speeding up melting of ‘Doomsday Glacier,’ scientists warn

    310 shares
    Share 124 Tweet 78
Science

Embark on a thrilling journey of discovery with Scienmag.com—your ultimate source for cutting-edge breakthroughs. Immerse yourself in a world where curiosity knows no limits and tomorrow’s possibilities become today’s reality!

RECENT NEWS

  • Leading ALS Organizations Unveil ‘Champion Insights’ to Explore Elevated ALS Risk Among Athletes and Military Personnel
  • Seafloor Fiber Reveals Fjord Calving Dynamics
  • Heritable Factor Links BMI, Fat, Waist in Kids
  • Vector Field-Guided Toolpaths Revolutionize 3D Bioprinting

Categories

  • Agriculture
  • Anthropology
  • Archaeology
  • Athmospheric
  • Biology
  • Bussines
  • Cancer
  • Chemistry
  • Climate
  • Earth Science
  • Marine
  • Mathematics
  • Medicine
  • Pediatry
  • Policy
  • Psychology & Psychiatry
  • Science Education
  • Social Science
  • Space
  • Technology and Engineering

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 4,859 other subscribers

© 2025 Scienmag - Science Magazine

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • HOME
  • SCIENCE NEWS
  • CONTACT US

© 2025 Scienmag - Science Magazine

Discover more from Science

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading