In a groundbreaking exploration of the intersection between industrial integration and environmental sustainability, recent research has illuminated the intricate dynamics that define how China’s manufacturing and logistics industries collectively influence regional carbon emissions. This integrative relationship, characterized by a complex inverted U-shaped curve, reveals that the synergistic development of manufacturing and logistics innovations first accelerates emissions before ultimately catalyzing their decline. Such findings underscore the nuanced trajectory that economic progress and environmental stewardship chart in rapidly developing economies.
At the heart of this examination lies the concept of integration and innovation in manufacturing and logistics (IIML). The study reveals that as regions deepen the collaborative and innovative ties between these two critical sectors, the initial phase tends to see an upsurge in regional carbon emissions (RCE). This phenomenon can be attributed to the expansion of industrial activities and the energy demands that accompany early-stage integration. However, the turning point in this inverted U-shaped relationship marks the stage at which technological advancements and efficiency-driven practices begin to dominate, ushering a sustained reduction in carbon emissions.
Central to understanding this mechanism are two primary mediators: technological innovation (TI) and industrial structure upgrading (ISI). TI, which encapsulates improvements in manufacturing technology (MTI) and logistics technology (LTI), emerges as a significant conduit through which IIML exerts a positive influence on reducing carbon emissions. Empirical evidence shows that elevated levels of integration and innovation directly contribute to both MTI and LTI, which in turn enhance production and circulation efficiencies. This cascade effect results in optimized resource utilization and energy consumption, ultimately aligning industrial progress with the goals of carbon reduction.
Furthermore, rigorous bootstrap analyses have substantiated the mediating role of TI as partial rather than complete. This distinction is pivotal because it illustrates that while technological innovation plays a substantial role in mediating the influence of IIML on carbon emissions, other factors concurrently contribute to this complex relationship. It also reinforces the critical need for policies that support continuous technological upgrades in both manufacturing and logistics to sustain environmental benefits.
Conversely, the industrial structure upgrading pathway, involving advanced industrial structure (AIS) and rationalized industrial structure (RIS), presents a more ambiguous narrative. Whereas one might anticipate that evolution towards higher-value, less carbon-intensive industries would uniformly contribute to emission reductions, the evidence suggests otherwise. The current level of IIML in China appears insufficient to foster significant positive impacts through AIS and RIS. Notably, AIS shows a statistically significant negative correlation at preliminary integration stages, while RIS remains largely insignificant. This signals that industrial restructuring is still in nascent phases, and the benefits of structural optimization have yet to materialize fully in emission metrics.
Delving deeper into the heterogeneity of these mediating effects, subgroup analyses reveal that IIML’s influence on AIS and RIS varies with the intensity of integration. When provinces are classified into high and low IIML groups, distinct patterns emerge. Lower levels of IIML correlate with increased carbon emissions due to inhibited industrial upgrading, while higher IIML facilitates RIS advancement, which translates into emission reductions. This bifurcation underscores that integration efforts must reach a critical threshold before structural upgrading can effectively mitigate environmental impacts.
This insight is further refined through a granular examination of industrial upgrading within specific sectors. The logistics industry’s AIS consistently demonstrates a positive mediation effect irrespective of IIML levels, highlighting the logistics sector’s pivotal role as an enabler of efficient manufacturing operations and, by extension, decarbonization. Examples such as JD Logistics exemplify how specialized logistics innovations can optimize supply chain management, lower transportation energy consumption, and contribute to sustainable practices such as green packaging and circular material use.
The manufacturing industry’s AIS, however, tells a more complex story. Advanced manufacturing industrial structure improvements only manifest as significantly negative mediators in highly integrated environments. This counterintuitive outcome suggests that investment priorities may skew towards logistics and integrated areas, potentially detracting from investment in advanced manufacturing capabilities. Consequently, this may exacerbate carbon emissions by limiting the manufacturing sector’s ability to evolve technologically. Yet, this competition for resources between manufacturing and logistics does not negate the need for ongoing manufacturing innovation; rather, it highlights the need for balanced investment strategies that foster synergistic growth of both sectors.
To address concerns around measurement validity, alternative proxies for industrial structural upgrading—such as logarithmic transformations and the share of high-tech industries—were tested. Results confirmed the robustness of the observed mediating relationships, signifying that the absence of significant mediation effects via ISI is not simply a product of indicator selection, but reflects complex underlying realities about the state of industrial transformation.
In addition to mediation analyses, moderating factors like government regulation (GR) and social trust (ST) offer valuable lenses for interpreting the IIML-RCE nexus. The study indicates that GR does not universally moderate this relationship; however, in energy-intense provinces, government interventions significantly influence the flattening of the inverted U-shaped curve. This moderation implies that regulatory frameworks can temper the pace and magnitude of emission increases during early integration stages and enhance emission reductions later on.
Similarly, ST’s moderating effect is context-dependent. While no significant impact is observed across all regions, provinces with elevated urbanization levels demonstrate a pronounced interaction effect. High urbanization appears to amplify the efficacy of social trust mechanisms in smoothing the trajectory of carbon emissions amidst industrial innovation, likely due to enhanced public engagement and heightened environmental awareness in denser, more interconnected settings.
The intricate dance between economic advancement and carbon footprint is further complicated by regional heterogeneity. Economically developed provinces, including Beijing, Tianjin, and key economic belts along the Yangtze River and Pearl River Delta, show different patterns compared to their underdeveloped counterparts. In wealthier provinces, IIML is associated with modest but statistically notable reductions in emissions, albeit without a significant quadratic term. Conversely, less developed provinces robustly display the inverted U-shaped dynamic, reflecting a more pronounced initial emissions increase before eventual decline.
This divergence extends to industrial structures as well. Resource-dependent regions, characterized by a predominance of extractive and heavy industries, exhibit negligible effects of IIML on reducing emissions. This contrasts with provinces possessing diversified industrial bases, where integration catalyzes tangible emissions benefits. The findings highlight that economic diversity and flexibility are crucial facilitators for translating innovative integration into environmental gains.
The comprehensive analytical framework presented offers a nuanced understanding of how sectoral integration and innovation influence sustainability outcomes, emphasizing that policy frameworks, regional development status, and industrial characteristics jointly modulate the environmental footprint of industrial progress. It underscores the necessity for tailored strategies that consider these multifaceted dimensions rather than one-size-fits-all approaches.
Ultimately, this body of work charts a compelling narrative: integration and innovation between manufacturing and logistics reservoirs hold potent promise for reconciling growth with ecological responsibility. However, the journey is non-linear and fraught with transitional challenges. Early-stage investments may provoke higher carbon outputs, but sustained technological and structural progress can reverse these trends, enabling China to navigate its path towards low-carbon industrial modernization.
This research amplifies a call for harmonized policy interventions that foster technological upgrades, complement industrial restructuring with strategic investments balanced between manufacturing and logistics, and reinforce governance and social capital mechanisms. With such holistic undertakings, the promise of a greener industrial future becomes an attainable reality, not only for China but as a replicable model for industrializing nations worldwide.
Subject of Research: The study investigates the impact of integration and innovation between China’s manufacturing and logistics industries on regional carbon emissions, analyzing the mediating roles of technological innovation and industrial structural upgrading, as well as the moderating effects of government regulation and social trust.
Article Title: Integration and innovation of China’s manufacturing and logistics industries and carbon emissions.
Article References:
Liu, W., Lan, R., Yuan, C. et al. Integration and innovation of China’s manufacturing and logistics industries and carbon emissions. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 12, 993 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05320-x
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