A groundbreaking investigation spearheaded by an international coalition of climate scientists at the IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) at Pusan National University, South Korea, unveils compelling new evidence linking human-induced global warming and declining sea ice to an unprecedented escalation in ocean turbulence, specifically mesoscale horizontal stirring (MHS), across the Arctic and Southern Oceans. This process is pivotal in governing oceanic heat transport, nutrient distribution, and ecological dynamics, thus underscoring its critical impact on marine environments within polar realms.
Mesoscale horizontal stirring, a concept rooted in the fluid dynamics of oceanography, refers to the stretching and folding of seawater masses over spatial scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers. This stirring is analogous to the mixing phenomena observed in stirred liquids, where fluid parcels undergo elongation into filament-like structures, progressively enhancing turbulent mixing. In polar oceans, MHS plays a fundamental role by mediating the horizontal transfer of heat, dissolved nutrients, and biological materials such as plankton. Its influence extends to the dispersal of fish larvae, determining recruitment success and population connectivity, as well as the advection of marine pollutants including microplastics.
Studying MHS in polar regions poses profound challenges due to extreme remoteness, harsh conditions, and the spatial-temporal limitations of ship-based observations and satellite technologies. Moreover, prior climate models have lacked the spatial resolution required to capture the intricate small-scale ocean currents instrumental to MHS and turbulence generation. These constraints have historically impeded a comprehensive understanding of how accelerating global warming and sea ice retreat might reshape polar ocean circulation patterns and marine ecosystems.
To bridge this knowledge gap, the research team harnessed the extraordinary capabilities of the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2 configured with ultra-high horizontal resolution (CESM-UHR) and executed on the supercomputing infrastructure Aleph at the Institute for Basic Science in Daejeon. This sophisticated coupled climate model integrates interactive atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice components, allowing for realistic simulations of coupled processes with atmospheric and oceanic grid resolutions of approximately 0.25° and 0.1°, respectively. The simulations were conducted under three scenarios: present-day (PD), doubling (2xCO₂), and quadrupling (4xCO₂) of atmospheric CO₂ levels, permitting a rigorous examination of the response of MHS to varied levels of anthropogenic warming.
To quantify the efficiency and spatial extent of horizontal stirring, the scientists employed the advanced mathematical metric known as finite-size Lyapunov exponents (FSLE). FSLE quantifies the rate at which two fluid parcels, initially placed in close proximity, diverge due to oceanic motions such as mesoscale eddies, meandering currents, and sharp frontal zones. These computations, performed daily over simulated decades, are computationally intensive but invaluable for resolving transient and localized dynamic patterns of stirring and turbulence within polar waters.
The compelling results reveal a striking intensification of MHS in both the Arctic Ocean and along Antarctica’s coastal fringe under future warming scenarios, corresponding closely to dramatic reductions in sea ice cover. In the Arctic, the mechanism primarily hinges on mechanical energetics: the retreat of sea ice exposes the ocean surface directly to atmospheric winds, amplifying the transfer of kinetic energy into ocean currents. This process invigorates the mean flow strength and the generation of mesoscale eddies, which in turn escalate horizontal stirring and turbulence, as vividly depicted in analyzed FSLE snapshots.
Conversely, the Southern Ocean exhibits a distinct but equally potent mechanism. Melting sea ice drives near-shore freshening, enhancing the latitudinal density gradients between polar and subpolar waters. This density contrast amplifies the strength of coastal currents—such as the Antarctic Slope Current—promoting robust eddy activity and intensified horizontal stirring. This oceanographic response underscores the complex interplay between water column density stratification and mesoscale dynamical instabilities in driving future circulation changes.
The ramifications of an intensified MHS on polar marine ecosystems are profound. Enhanced stirring affects plankton distribution patterns, alters primary productivity, and significantly modifies larval dispersal pathways. While moderate levels of stirring can promote connectivity and genetic exchange among fish populations by transporting larvae across habitats, the predicted increase may exceed optimal thresholds, potentially delivering larvae into hostile environments detrimental to survival, thereby disrupting marine food webs and fisheries.
From a biogeochemical perspective, the escalation of MHS is poised to impact nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration in polar oceans. More vigorous stirring can enhance vertical nutrient fluxes but can also redistribute surface properties horizontally, influencing phytoplankton bloom dynamics and consequently the efficiency of the biological carbon pump, an important regulator of global climate feedbacks.
This pioneering research epitomizes the critical advancements afforded by high-resolution Earth system modeling. By resolving small-scale turbulent processes and explicitly representing sea ice–ocean interactions, the study proffers unprecedented insights into the physical drivers of future polar ocean dynamics under climate change. The findings are vital for informing ecosystem models, conservation strategies, and policy frameworks aimed at mitigating the ecological consequences of accelerating Arctic and Antarctic transformations.
Lead author YI Gyuseok highlights the stark contrast in physical boundaries between the Arctic—a semi-enclosed ocean encircled by continents—and the Southern Ocean, an open ocean basin surrounding the Antarctic continent. Despite these differing constraints, both regions exhibit convergent trends regarding intensified MHS, revealing the robust nature of the climate warming signal across diverse polar oceanographic settings.
Professor June-Yi Lee, a co-corresponding author, stresses the ecological significance of these dynamical changes, emphasizing the necessity to understand how enhanced horizontal stirring influences larval transport mechanisms, genetic connectivity, and species resilience as climate stressors intensify. Furthermore, Professor Axel Timmermann, Director of ICCP and co-author, underscores the imperative to develop next-generation Earth system models that integrate ecological and physical processes. Such models are expected to revolutionize predictions of climate impacts on polar marine life, facilitating adaptation and management in the face of rapid environmental change.
This seminal study opens new avenues for interdisciplinary research, urging the scientific community to combine high-resolution physical oceanography with marine ecology and biogeochemistry. Only through such integrative approaches can the full spectrum of global warming impacts on polar marine systems be comprehensively elucidated and addressed.
Subject of Research: Not applicable
Article Title: Future mesoscale horizontal stirring in polar oceans intensified by sea ice decline
News Publication Date: 5-Nov-2025
Web References: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02471-2
Image Credits: Institute for Basic Science
Keywords: Ocean currents, Climate change, Climatology, Earth sciences, Ocean circulation, Ocean physics, Ocean surface temperature, Ocean warming, Marine ecology, Environmental sciences, Horizontal stirring, Sea ice decline
