Friday, August 8, 2025
Science
No Result
View All Result
  • Login
  • HOME
  • SCIENCE NEWS
  • CONTACT US
  • HOME
  • SCIENCE NEWS
  • CONTACT US
No Result
View All Result
Scienmag
No Result
View All Result
Home Science News Climate

How climate change will affect malaria transmission

May 9, 2024
in Climate
Reading Time: 5 mins read
0
How climate change will affect malaria transmission
67
SHARES
608
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
ADVERTISEMENT

University of Leeds news release 

University of Leeds news release 

ADVERTISEMENT

Embargoed until 1900 BST, 9 May 2024 

How climate change will affect malaria transmission 

A new model for predicting the effects of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa could lead to more targeted interventions to control the disease according to a new study. 

Previous methods have used rainfall totals to indicate the presence of surface water suitable for breeding mosquitoes, but the research led by the University of Leeds used several climatic and hydrological models to include real-world processes of evaporation, infiltration and flow through rivers. 

This groundbreaking approach has created a more in-depth picture of malaria-friendly conditions on the African continent. 

It has also highlighted the role of waterways such as the Zambezi River in the spread of the disease with almost four times the population estimated to live in areas suitable for malaria for up to nine months of the year than was previously thought. 

The research entitled “Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology” was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and is published today (9 May 2024) in the journal Science. 

Dr Mark Smith an Associate Professor in Water Research in the Leeds’ School of Geography and lead author of the study said: “This will give us a more physically realistic estimate of where in Africa is going to become better or worse for malaria. 

“And as increasingly detailed estimates of water flows become available, we can use this understanding to direct prioritisation and tailoring of malaria interventions in a more targeted and informed way. This is really useful given the scarce health resources that are often available.” 

Malaria is a climate-sensitive vector-borne disease that caused 608,000 deaths among 249 million cases in 2022. 

95% of global cases are reported in Africa but reductions in cases there have slowed or even reversed in recent years, attributed in part to a stall in investments in global responses to malaria control. 

The researchers predict that the hot and dry conditions brought about by climate change will lead to an overall decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission from 2025 onwards. 

The new hydrology-driven approach also shows that changes in malaria suitability are seen in different places and are more sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought.  

For example, projected reductions in malaria suitability across West Africa are more extensive than rainfall-based models suggested, stretching as far east as South Sudan, whereas projected increases in South Africa are now seen to follow watercourses such as the Orange River. 

Co-author of the study Professor Chris Thomas from the University of Lincoln said: “The key advancement is that these models factor in that not all water stays where it rains, and this means breeding conditions suitable for malaria mosquitoes too can be more widespread – especially along major river floodplains in the arid, savannah regions typical of many regions in Africa.  

“What is surprising in the new modelling is the sensitivity of season length to climate change – this can have dramatic effects on the amount of disease transmitted.” 

Simon Gosling, Professor of Climate Risks & Environmental Modelling at the University of Nottingham, co-authored the study and helped to coordinate the water modelling experiments used in the research. He said: “Our study highlights the complex way that surface water flows change the risk of malaria transmission across Africa, made possible thanks to a major research programme conducted by the global hydrological modelling community to compile and make available estimates of climate change impacts on water flows across the planet.  

“Although an overall reduction in future risk of malaria might sound like good news, it comes at a cost of reduced water availability and a greater risk of another significant disease, dengue.” 

The researchers hope that further advances in their modelling will allow for even finer details of waterbody dynamics which could help to inform national malaria control strategies. 

Dr Smith added: “We’re getting to the point soon where we use globally available data to not only say where the possible habitats are, but also which species of mosquitoes are likely to breed where, and that would allow people to really target their interventions against these insects.” 

Ends 

Further information 

“Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology” is published today (9 May 2024) in Science 

The DOI is 10.1126/science.adk8755 

A graphic to illustrate changes in the patterns of transmission can be found here 

Caption to read: 

Projected changes in the season length of malaria transmission suitability by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Red shades show extended season lengths while blue shades show a reduction in season lengths. The intensity of the shading indicates the confidence of estimates.  

This work was undertaken with support from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) award FLOODMAL (NE/P013481/1) (MWS and CJT), and Leeds-York-Hull NERC Doctoral Training Partnership (NE/S007458/1) (EM). The paper is also based upon work undertaken as part of COST Action PROCLIAS, supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology), www.cost.eu. 

For media enquiries, please contact Kersti Mitchell in the University of Leeds press office via k.mitchell@leeds.co.uk 

University of Leeds  

The University of Leeds is one of the largest higher education institutions in the UK, with more than 40,000 students from about 140 different countries. We are renowned globally for the quality of our teaching and research.  

We are a values-driven university, and we harness our expertise in research and education to help shape a better future for humanity, working through collaboration to tackle inequalities, achieve societal impact and drive change.   

The University is a member of the Russell Group of research-intensive universities, and is a major partner in the Alan Turing, Rosalind Franklin and Royce Institutes www.leeds.ac.uk   

Follow University of Leeds or tag us in to coverage: Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Instagram 

 

 



Journal

Science

DOI

10.1126/science.adk8755

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology

Article Publication Date

9-May-2024

Share27Tweet17
Previous Post

Transformation of ocean management is underway, study finds

Next Post

Indian ocean temperature anomalies predict global dengue trends

Related Posts

blank
Climate

Navigating Energy Transition Amid Minerals Constraints

August 7, 2025
blank
Climate

Warming Speeds Up Arctic Ocean Deoxygenation

August 3, 2025
blank
Climate

Marine Heatwaves Favor Heat-Tolerant Reef Corals

August 3, 2025
blank
Climate

Satellite-Era Sea Surface Temperature Trends Vary Widely

August 3, 2025
blank
Climate

Thermal Adaptation in Ecosystems Reduces Carbon Loss

August 3, 2025
blank
Climate

Antarctic Phytoplankton Shift with Changing Sea Ice

August 3, 2025
Next Post
Indian ocean temperature anomalies predict global dengue trends

Indian ocean temperature anomalies predict global dengue trends

  • Mothers who receive childcare support from maternal grandparents show more parental warmth, finds NTU Singapore study

    Mothers who receive childcare support from maternal grandparents show more parental warmth, finds NTU Singapore study

    27531 shares
    Share 11009 Tweet 6881
  • University of Seville Breaks 120-Year-Old Mystery, Revises a Key Einstein Concept

    942 shares
    Share 377 Tweet 236
  • Bee body mass, pathogens and local climate influence heat tolerance

    641 shares
    Share 256 Tweet 160
  • Researchers record first-ever images and data of a shark experiencing a boat strike

    507 shares
    Share 203 Tweet 127
  • Warm seawater speeding up melting of ‘Doomsday Glacier,’ scientists warn

    310 shares
    Share 124 Tweet 78
Science

Embark on a thrilling journey of discovery with Scienmag.com—your ultimate source for cutting-edge breakthroughs. Immerse yourself in a world where curiosity knows no limits and tomorrow’s possibilities become today’s reality!

RECENT NEWS

  • Bendamustine Triggers ER Stress Apoptosis in Breast Cancer
  • Exploring Renal Pseudotumors in Pediatric Imaging
  • Mapping Soil Carbon Changes Across the U.S. Since 1955
  • Low Genetic Diversity Threatens Mozambique’s Iconic Corals

Categories

  • Agriculture
  • Anthropology
  • Archaeology
  • Athmospheric
  • Biology
  • Bussines
  • Cancer
  • Chemistry
  • Climate
  • Earth Science
  • Marine
  • Mathematics
  • Medicine
  • Pediatry
  • Policy
  • Psychology & Psychiatry
  • Science Education
  • Social Science
  • Space
  • Technology and Engineering

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 4,858 other subscribers

© 2025 Scienmag - Science Magazine

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • HOME
  • SCIENCE NEWS
  • CONTACT US

© 2025 Scienmag - Science Magazine

Discover more from Science

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading