New Research Predicts a Shift to Larger but Less Frequent Hailstorms in a Warming Europe
Emerging climate science reveals a complex and alarming future for hailstorms across Europe, with warming temperatures poised to bring about fewer but more severe hail events. In a groundbreaking study led by experts from Newcastle University, the UK Met Office, and the University of Bristol, high-resolution climate simulations spanning the European continent reveal a nuanced transformation in the dynamics of hail formation under a high-emissions scenario known as RCP8.5. Their work, published in the prestigious journal Nature Communications, offers crucial insights into the evolving threat environment posed by severe weather in a rapidly warming world.
The crux of the research is that while the overall frequency of severe hailstorms—hailstones exceeding 2 centimeters in diameter—may decline across most of Europe, the incidence of exceptionally large hailstones, those measuring 5 centimeters or more, could increase regionally. This finding upends simplistic expectations that global warming would uniformly reduce hail hazards due to melting effects and altered storm characteristics. Instead, the interplay of atmospheric conditions in a hotter climate appears to favor the sporadic emergence of particularly damaging hail events, thereby elevating the societal risks associated with hail impacts.
Hailstone genesis is intrinsically tied to deep convective storm dynamics, where updrafts loft water droplets into subzero atmospheric layers, allowing ice particles to grow before falling to earth. The study elucidates that warming drives these hail-forming processes higher into the troposphere, increasing the altitude of freezing levels. In concert with this, the researchers found that vertical wind shear—key to maintaining organized thunderstorm structures—weakens as large-scale circulation patterns adjust to climate change. These shifts collectively result in generally weaker updrafts and enhanced likelihood of hail melting en route to the ground, reducing hail occurrence but modifying storm profiles.
Crucially, the study identifies the forecasted proliferation of warm-type thunderstorms reminiscent of those observed in tropical regions. Such storms are capable of producing giant hailstones that can survive longer melting paths and reach the surface intact. This tropical analog thunderstorm type is predicted to increase most prominently over southern Europe, particularly influencing autumn and winter hail activity. The authors highlight this emergent pattern as an important driver of regional hailstorm severity, underscoring its potential to amplify weather hazards in Mediterranean climates.
Commenting on the broader implications, lead author Dr. Abdullah Kahraman emphasized that the findings reflect a more intricate relationship between severe thunderstorm behavior and climate change than previously appreciated. “Our advanced, kilometer-scale simulations reveal that conventional models may underestimate the future damage potential of hailstorms,” he remarked. Dr Kahraman’s observations highlight how sophisticated computational techniques afford a more detailed understanding of regional weather phenomena within a high-carbon future scenario estimated to raise average temperatures by approximately five degrees Celsius.
Professor Lizzie Kendon of the UK Met Office and University of Bristol further stressed the gravity of the findings, noting, “The possibility that tropical-type hailstorms could gain footholds in Europe is deeply concerning. This transformation implies infrastructure and emergency preparedness sectors must anticipate hail impacts of unprecedented scale.” While affirming that the risk remains comparatively low over the British Isles and much of northern Europe, Kendon noted the spatial variability of hail risks demands tailored regional adaptation efforts.
Additionally, Professor Hayley Fowler of Newcastle University’s School of Engineering underscored the socio-economic stakes tied to evolving hailstorm behaviors. She pointed to recent Mediterranean hail events that caused substantial damage to homes, agriculture, and even aviation operations. “Our study highlights the increasing need for robust infrastructure resilience and damage mitigation strategies to confront these emerging, oversized hailstorms,” Fowler commented. Her statement encapsulates a growing consensus around proactive policy responses to mitigate climate-induced weather extremes.
The research also revealed a geographic differentiation in hailstorm characteristics across Europe. While the occurrence of very large hail decreases over Central Europe and remains low over the British Isles and Northern Europe, Southern Europe faces heightened risks during cooler seasons. This seasonal and spatial heterogeneity reflects the complex interplay between thermal profiles, storm dynamics, and climate-driven alterations in atmospheric circulation.
One of the study’s most striking insights is the apparent amplification of severe hail hazard potential linked to the rising prevalence of warm-type thunderstorms. These systems feature different microphysical and dynamical attributes compared to classic hail-producing storms—attributes that may allow them to generate giant hailstones despite elevated freezing levels and associated melting tendencies. Given the relatively limited understanding of these storm types in temperate regions, the researchers call for intensified investigation to refine predictive models and improve hazard assessments.
The team acknowledged extant uncertainties about how enhanced melting tied to higher freezing altitudes might counterbalance hailstone growth, particularly for the largest stones. They advocate for continued, high-resolution simulation studies paired with targeted observational campaigns to elucidate the microphysical processes governing hailstone survival and aggregation in a warming climate. Advancing this frontier research is essential to accurately forecasting hailstorm impacts and guiding adaptation measures.
In sum, this study draws attention to a nonuniform, yet potentially devastating shift in European hailstorm patterns under climate change. The prospect of infrequent but extraordinarily destructive hailstorms demands that meteorologists, urban planners, and emergency managers rethink hail risk frameworks and invest in flexible, forward-thinking adaptation strategies. As global temperatures rise, the findings underline the importance of holistic approaches that integrate climate science with societal resilience initiatives to address the multifaceted challenges posed by extreme weather events.
The results presented by Kahraman et al. challenge prior assumptions and enrich the scientific discourse on thunderstorm and hailstorm climatology in a warming world. Their high-resolution, continent-wide simulations represent a leap forward in understanding how fundamental atmospheric processes will evolve and impact surface hazard regimes. The emergence of tropical-like hailstorms in southern Europe marks a paradigm shift that may redefine regional threat landscapes and test the limits of current resilience infrastructure.
Overall, this comprehensive study calls for a heightened awareness of changing hailstorm dynamics, promoting anticipation, preparedness, and innovation. With the dual forces of changing storm types and warming atmospheric layers impacting hail behavior, Europe faces a future where the devastating power of hailstones could grow despite fewer storms occurring. This paradoxical scenario underscores the layered complexity of climate change impacts on weather extremes and the critical importance of science-led policy guidance.
Subject of Research: Severe hailstorm changes in a warming climate and associated thunderstorm dynamics across Europe.
Article Title: Future changes in severe hail across Europe, including regional emergence of warm-type thunderstorms.
News Publication Date: 26-Sep-2025
Web References: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62780-0
References: Kahraman, A., Kendon, E.J., Fowler, H.J. et al. (2025). Future changes in severe hail across Europe, including regional emergence of warm-type thunderstorms. Nature Communications, 16, 8438.
Keywords: Severe hail, thunderstorm dynamics, climate change impacts, high-resolution climate simulation, European weather extremes, warm-type thunderstorms, hailstone size, climate adaptation, Mediterranean climate, atmospheric circulation, hail hazard, urban resilience
