In the ever-evolving landscape of entrepreneurship, understanding how opportunities are evaluated remains a critical pursuit that blends cognitive science with contextual analysis. Recent research by Andrade-Valbuena and Dos Santos, published in BMC Psychology (2026), embarks on a pioneering exploration of this intersection by employing a nuanced methodological tool known as fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA). Their work sheds light on the complex configurations that shape entrepreneurial decision-making, emphasizing the interplay between cognitive processes and situational contexts.
At its core, entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation involves discerning whether a newly identified business idea or market possibility possesses sufficient promise to justify investment of time, capital, and resources. Traditional models often analyze this process through either purely cognitive lenses—such as individual heuristics and biases—or through contextual frameworks highlighting external environmental factors. However, the innovative approach taken by Andrade-Valbuena and Dos Santos transcends this dichotomy, proposing a configurational perspective that integrates multiple dimensions simultaneously.
The authors begin by grounding their study in cognitive psychology, drawing from theories related to mental models, pattern recognition, and bounded rationality. Entrepreneurs, they note, are not purely rational agents but individuals whose cognitive capacities filter perceptions of opportunity quality through prior knowledge, experience, and intuition. This interplay dictates how information is assimilated and how risk assessments are framed. Yet, cognitive processes alone cannot fully account for why some opportunities are embraced while others are discarded.
To complement this, the contextual dimension incorporates variables such as market dynamics, competitor presence, resource availability, and institutional influences. These external factors are not static backdrops but active forces that shape the entrepreneurial landscape. They modulate how cognitive processes unfold and can either amplify or mitigate perceived opportunity attractiveness. Recognizing this, Andrade-Valbuena and Dos Santos argue for an analytical approach that captures the contingent nature of opportunity evaluation.
fsQCA emerges as the methodological centerpiece enabling this integration. Unlike traditional quantitative methods that focus on isolated variables, fsQCA allows for the analysis of complex, interdependent causal configurations. It uses set theory to identify combinations of conditions leading to specific outcomes—in this case, the decision to pursue or reject an entrepreneurial opportunity. This method accounts for equifinality, where multiple pathways can lead to the same decision, reflecting the nuanced realities entrepreneurs face.
Applying fsQCA to empirical data gathered from entrepreneurs across diverse sectors, the study identifies distinct cognitive-contextual configurations that systematically influence opportunity evaluation outcomes. For instance, one prevalent pattern combines high cognitive alertness—characterized by strong industry knowledge and opportunistic thinking—with supportive contextual conditions like favorable market trends and accessible entrepreneurial networks. This synergy frequently correlates with affirmative opportunity assessments.
Conversely, another configuration reveals scenarios where even entrepreneurs with significant cognitive capacity may reject opportunities due to constraining external factors such as regulatory hurdles or intense competition. This finding underscores the importance of context as a filter that can override or amplify cognitive assessments. It challenges simplistic assumptions that internal traits alone dictate entrepreneurial success or failure.
The paper further elaborates on intermediate configurations where moderate cognitive engagement paired with evolving contextual signals result in cautious or delayed opportunity decisions. These nuanced insights portray entrepreneurial evaluation not as a binary judgment but as a dynamic negotiation between internal mindset and external realities, continuously shaped by feedback loops and perception shifts.
A particularly groundbreaking contribution of the research lies in illustrating how cognitive and contextual factors interact non-linearly. Rather than additive effects, these elements combine in multifaceted ways that create emergent properties influencing decision outcomes. This insight carries significant implications for theories of entrepreneurial cognition, suggesting that future models need to incorporate configurational thinking to accurately depict real-world processes.
Moreover, the use of fsQCA introduces a replicable framework for studying complex entrepreneurial phenomena previously resistant to conventional quantitative scrutiny. Its flexibility in handling small-to-medium sample sizes and its capacity to reveal causal complexity make it a valuable tool for entrepreneurship scholars and practitioners seeking deeper understanding beyond regression-based analytics.
The study’s implications extend to entrepreneurial training and policymaking. By recognizing which cognitive-contextual configurations foster positive opportunity evaluations, incubators and mentors can tailor programs to strengthen relevant cognitive skills while simultaneously advocating for ecosystem improvements that alleviate contextual barriers. This dual-pronged strategy could enhance opportunity recognition and exploitation rates, fueling innovation-driven growth.
Further ramifications lie in the realm of artificial intelligence and digital tools designed to support entrepreneurship. Insights from this configurational approach could inform the development of decision-support systems that simulate cognitive-contextual scenarios, aiding entrepreneurs in more rigorous opportunity assessments. Such AI-enhanced platforms might integrate real-time market data with cognitive profiling to provide personalized strategic guidance.
The research also invites critical reflections on entrepreneurial failure. By mapping out configurations linked to rejected opportunities, it highlights how seemingly negative evaluations are often rational responses to adverse contexts rather than mere cognitive shortcomings. This perspective invites a more compassionate and systemic understanding of entrepreneurial outcomes, reducing stigma associated with failure and encouraging iterative learning.
Throughout the paper, Andrade-Valbuena and Dos Santos emphasize that opportunity evaluation is inherently situated—a mosaic formed by the entrepreneur’s cognitive structures and the surrounding environment at a given temporal juncture. Recognizing this temporal dimension, they suggest longitudinal fsQCA studies as a promising direction to capture evolving configurations over the lifecycle of entrepreneurial ventures.
In sum, this innovative study contributes a sophisticated and empirically grounded framework that reframes entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation as a complex configurational phenomenon. By bridging cognitive psychology with contextual analysis through fsQCA, it advances theoretical debates and offers practical insights to nurture entrepreneurial success in an increasingly uncertain world. As entrepreneurship continues to drive economic transformation globally, such rigorous, integrative approaches mark a significant step toward demystifying its intricate decision-making processes.
Subject of Research: Entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation through cognitive and contextual configurations analyzed via fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA).
Article Title: Cognitive and contextual configurations in entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation: insights from fsQCA.
Article References:
Andrade-Valbuena, N.A., Dos Santos, M.A. Cognitive and contextual configurations in entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation: insights from fsQCA. BMC Psychol (2026). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40359-025-03940-1
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