A comprehensive analysis released at the recent COP30 climate summit in Brazil has sounded a stark warning: despite urgent climate commitments, countries worldwide continue to neglect fundamental actions required to curb greenhouse gas emissions by addressing deforestation and forest degradation. Instead, many are placing dangerous bets on large-scale carbon removal strategies, such as massive tree planting initiatives, which may prove unrealistic and insufficient for the scale of the climate crisis. The new report, The Land Gap 2025, led by the University of Melbourne in collaboration with a global consortium of experts, lays bare the critical discrepancies between what nations pledge and what is practically feasible for land-based climate mitigation.
The Land Gap 2025 report scrutinizes recently updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term climate strategies submitted to the United Nations ahead of COP30. It reveals a profound “land gap” — a mismatch between the amount of land governments are counting on to absorb carbon dioxide emissions and the actual capacity of that land to sustainably deliver carbon sequestration. Equally troubling is a distinct “forest gap” delineating the disparity between current global commitments to halt deforestation and forest degradation by 2030 and the likely ecological outcomes if current policies persist. The findings indicate that, even with pledged efforts, deforestation will continue at an annual average of four million hectares, with an additional 16 million hectares suffering degradation, amounting to an alarming 20 million hectares of forest loss or damage.
A central problem underscored by the report is the reliance on land-based carbon removal technologies that are largely speculative or require decades to manifest their full climate benefits. Countries are betting on vast tree-planting drives and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) projects to offset emissions, but these approaches face significant ecological, economic, and social constraints. The land needed for these carbon removal efforts exceeds one billion hectares — an expanse larger than the entire landmass of Australia. Such extensive land-use shifts risk displacing marginalized groups, including Indigenous Peoples, local communities, and smallholder farmers, thereby exacerbating social injustices under the guise of climate action.
The report highlights systemic barriers that interfere with effective forest protection. Chief among these is the conflict between economic development imperatives and environmental preservation. Many countries, burdened by sovereign debt and shaped by industry-friendly tax and trade policies, feel compelled to exploit forests for short-term economic gains. However, this myopic approach undermines long-term economic resilience because intact forests provide essential climate regulation, biodiversity support, and livelihood opportunities that are critical for sustainable development. Lead author Dr. Kate Dooley emphasizes this paradox, noting that governments’ fiscally driven decisions to degrade forests ultimately threaten the very economic foundations they seek to protect.
Remarkably, the report reveals a disappointing lack of ambition in the latest round of climate pledges. Less than 40 percent of Parties to the Paris Agreement submitted updated plans in time for COP30, and those that did often failed to prioritize meaningful strategies to halt deforestation and degradation. This inertia jeopardizes the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Instead of ramping up direct forest conservation measures, countries are overly dependent on promised future carbon removals from land-based initiatives which remain uncertain and protracted.
The analysis also touches on the broader implications for global temperature trajectories. The researchers warn that even if countries meet their current commitments fully and punctually, temperature increases are still projected to land between 1.8 and 2.0 degrees Celsius by mid-century. Should nations falter in implementing these pledges, warming could rise substantially further, exacerbating climate-related risks worldwide. Dr. Alister Self, co-author and Senior Research Analyst at Climate Resource, underscores that the window for effective climate action is narrowing and that current land-based strategies are inadequate for averting the looming climate tipping points.
This assessment reinforces a critical call for reforming policies that govern land use, economic development, and climate financing. Solutions include realigning debt obligations and trade policies with environmental objectives, promoting forest-friendly economic incentives, and integrating Indigenous knowledge systems in forest stewardship. Many initiatives are already underway, but they require accelerated scaling, international cooperation, and political will to break the entrenched dichotomy between growth and conservation that hinders global climate progress.
The Land Gap 2025 report presents compelling evidence that the global community must recalibrate its climate strategies to place forest protection and restoration at the core of mitigation efforts. Protecting existing forests is not only ecologically imperative but also economically beneficial. Well-managed forests stabilize climate systems by sequestering carbon, maintaining watershed health, preserving biodiversity, and supporting sustainable livelihoods. Achieving net-zero emissions targets is thus fundamentally tied to preserving these natural assets rather than relying predominantly on largescale land conversion schemes.
Furthermore, the report advocates for enhanced transparency and accountability in climate planning. Governments must rigorously assess the ecological limits and social impacts of land-based carbon removal projects before embedding them into their commitments. Otherwise, reliance on uncertain technological credits risks undermining the credibility of international climate frameworks and distracting from urgent emission reductions needed in fossil fuel sectors.
In summary, the findings from The Land Gap 2025 offer a critical reality check for COP30 and beyond. Forests remain a frontline defense against climate change, but the international community’s current trajectories suggest insufficient ambition and misguided reliance on speculative offsets. As Dr. Dooley concludes, an urgent paradigm shift is needed — one that transcends economic constraints and empowers forest protection as a central pillar of climate policy. The future of global climate stability depends on confronting these land and forest gaps with pragmatic, equitable, and scientifically grounded solutions.
Subject of Research: Land-based climate mitigation strategies and national climate plan efficacy.
Article Title: The Land Gap 2025 Report Exposes Realities Behind Forest Protection Failures at COP30.
News Publication Date: October 31, 2025.
Web References: https://landgap.org/2025/report
Image Credits: Image supplied.
Keywords: Climate change effects, Environmental issues, Forest degradation, Deforestation, Carbon removal, Paris Agreement, Climate policy, Land use, Indigenous rights, Economic development, Carbon sequestration, Biodiversity.
