Brazilian beef production stands as both a cornerstone of the nation’s economy and a formidable contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. Recent scientific analysis reveals that current beef production practices in Brazil emit more than double the greenhouse gases permissible under international environmental agreements designed to mitigate climate change. This significant finding emerges from a comprehensive study published in the reputable journal Environmental Science and Pollution Research, which assesses not only greenhouse gas emissions but also economic aspects related to the sector’s environmental impact.
The researchers behind this study undertook a detailed exploration of various projected emission scenarios linked to Brazil’s beef production. They calculated that, by 2030, emissions could range from 0.42 to 0.63 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e), far exceeding the 0.26 GtCO₂e cap necessary to align with Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets under the Paris Agreement. The NDCs, which represent the commitments countries have made to reduce emissions, are critical for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Mitigation strategies throughout the beef production chain, however, could avert economic losses that might otherwise reach up to USD 42.6 billion and foster a more competitive livestock sector.
The Paris Agreement, ratified in 2015, sets forth these NDCs as binding commitments to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. Brazil’s initial NDC targeted a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels. However, recent submissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have strengthened this commitment, promising reductions between 59% and 67% by 2035. This ambitious leap reflects Brazil’s recognition of its vital role in combating climate change amid alarming global temperature records, with 2024 reaching an unprecedented 1.55 degrees Celsius increase as reported by the World Meteorological Organization.
A central message of the study is the urgent need to transform the manner in which livestock is produced. Despite beef’s cultural and economic significance in Brazil, current methods linked to deforestation and high emissions cannot persist if climate goals are to be met. Lead author Mariana Vieira da Costa from the Federal University of São Paulo articulates this nuance clearly: the objective is not necessarily to reduce meat consumption, but rather to revamp production techniques to minimize environmental damage. This involves adopting sustainable agricultural practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions without compromising the sector’s economic vitality.
Crucially, the study employs the social cost of carbon (SCC) to articulate the financial ramifications of carbon emissions associated with beef production. The SCC concept quantifies the comprehensive economic damages incurred from emitting an additional ton of CO₂, incorporating factors such as agricultural yield reductions, health challenges, and extreme weather events stemming from climate change. This financial lens is intended to drive policy-making and incentivize producers to integrate sustainability into their operations through supportive public policies and credit availability.
By applying the SCC to Brazilian beef production, the researchers estimate potential savings between USD 18.8 billion and USD 42.6 billion by 2030, contingent on meeting emissions targets. This compelling economic argument complements environmental imperatives, underscoring the tangible benefits of transitioning to more sustainable livestock management regimes. While Brazil leads the world in beef exports—with a record 2.29 million tons shipped globally in 2023, generating over USD 10 billion in revenue—this export-driven demand intensifies the pressure on production systems and the environment.
The study also examines domestic consumption scenarios under constrained emission limits. If production is curtailed to comply with the recommended 0.26 GtCO₂e threshold, per capita beef availability in Brazil would vary between 2 and 10 kilograms annually by 2030. This analysis situates the country’s internal food security considerations within the broader dialogue on climate responsibility, emphasizing the challenge of balancing economic, cultural, and environmental priorities.
The research team, including co-authors Simone Miraglia and Daniela Debone of the Laboratory of Economics, Health and Environmental Pollution (LESPA) at UNIFESP, highlights the historic challenge of data scarcity in analyzing emissions tied to cattle farming with finer granularity. Overcoming these hurdles, the researchers developed new indicators that enable more precise assessment and policy recommendations. The urgency of such research is compounded by the observed consequences of unchecked emissions, including anticipated declines in agricultural productivity, increased incidence of forest fires, and heightened public health risks, such as elevated mortality rates.
Since 1985, Brazil’s agricultural land use has expanded dramatically, growing by 50% to encompass roughly one-third of the national territory. Most of this expansion has been pasture land—current estimates place pasture at about 164.3 million hectares. Critically, around 64% of this agricultural growth resulted from deforestation, especially in the Amazon biome, which has now surpassed the Cerrado savannah in pasture area. This land-use change is a major driver of greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss, exacerbating the environmental footprint of beef production.
The researchers advocate for enhanced collaboration between scientists and rural producers to drive the adoption of more efficient and low-emission livestock practices. Despite the Brazilian government’s initiatives such as the ABC+ Plan (Plan for Adaptation and Low Carbon Emissions in Agriculture), which supports investments in sustainable and intensive agricultural techniques, uptake remains limited. Expanding incentive mechanisms—including tax exemptions and carbon credit systems—will be crucial to scaling transformative practices across Brazil’s vast cattle industry.
In conclusion, this study marks a pivotal moment for Brazil’s beef sector, illustrating the intersection of climate science, economics, and socio-cultural considerations. Achieving emission reductions without undermining the economic livelihood tied to cattle farming demands innovative approaches and robust policy frameworks. The findings champion a future where sustainable livestock production can coexist with global climate targets, fostering resilience within Brazil’s agriculture and its role in the international market.
Subject of Research: Brazilian beef production, greenhouse gas emissions, social cost of carbon, climate change mitigation in agriculture.
Article Title: Brazilian beef production and GHG emission – social cost of carbon and perspectives for climate change mitigation
News Publication Date: 5-Feb-2025
Web References:
- Study in Environmental Science and Pollution Research: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11356-025-36022-1
- Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs#:~:text=Nationally%20Determined%20Contributions%20
- MapBiomas study on Brazilian land use: https://brasil.mapbiomas.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2023/10/FACT_MapBiomas_Agropecuaria_04.10_v2.pdf
- ABC+ Plan details: https://www.gov.br/agricultura/pt-br/assuntos/sustentabilidade/planoabc-abcmais/abc/programas-e-estrategias
References: 10.1007/s11356-025-36022-1
Keywords: Cattle, Environmental issues, Carbon debt, Climate change adaptation, Greenhouse effect, Deforestation
