Africa Needs Rapid Climate Attribution Science

A perspective published in Discover Hazards argues that African nations must urgently operationalize extreme event attribution to address a significant gap in climate science evidence. The study, authored by Mastawesha Misganaw Engdaw, highlights that while attribution science has evolved to provide the pinnacle of evidence for assessing the contribution of multiple causal factors to observed climate changes, most such studies are concentrated in the Global North. Africa has not yet made substantial progress in producing this critical information, and when attribution studies do exist for the continent, they are predominantly led by institutions based in the Global North. This lack of in-house capacity hinders the ability to explicitly demonstrate the influence of anthropogenic climate changes on the increasing magnitude and probabilities of climate hazards in the region.

Attribution science supports the estimation of the quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural forcings on observed changes in the climate system. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines attribution as the process of evaluating the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to a change or event with an assessment of confidence. At its core, detection and attribution methods compare the statistical properties and physical understanding of processes of observed climate variables against those simulated by climate models under different forcing scenarios. These developments form the foundations of the IPCC’s evolved statements that human influence on the climate system is unequivocal, making attribution evidence critical in informing climate policies and actions.

Africa experiences more detectable warming than other continents because of its relatively lower year-to-year climate variability. This characteristic makes it essential to assess the amplitude of climate change signals relative to the magnitude of local climate variability for impacts that require adaptation interventions. In high-latitude regions, natural and human systems adapt to higher variability, but in low-latitude regions, disentangling observed changes relative to natural variability is a sounder indicator for assessing anthropogenic influence. Studies have shown the early emergence of climate extremes over low-latitude vulnerable countries, with Africa and tropical regions experiencing disproportionately the highest anthropogenic influence on the ongoing increase in temperature extremes.

Beyond providing robust scientific evidence on the contribution of anthropogenic climate hazards, Africa and other tropically located warmer regions have experienced a loss in agricultural Total Factor Productivity. This reduction is approximately 26–34%, which is higher than the global average reduction of 21% since 1961. The disproportionate occurrence of some of the deadliest hazards, such as droughts and floods, in developing countries exacerbates the situation. Extreme event attribution studies have demonstrated that anthropogenic influence is detectable in heat extremes, droughts, heavy precipitation, and floods, providing compelling evidence of Africa’s exposure to human-caused climate change.

However, most extreme events that have caused widespread damage and loss of life, particularly in the Global South, are rarely assessed for the presence or magnitude of anthropogenic contribution. Africa is among regions where only a small number of event attribution studies have been conducted, despite the number of people affected by extremes being much higher. The proportion of such extreme events that have been studied is extremely lower than other continents, mainly the United States of America and Europe. Due to several challenges, most notably the lack of skilled expertise, national meteorological and hydrological institutions in Africa have lagged in joining the global effort to operationalize event attribution.

The perspective proposes an inverted approach to operationalize extreme event attribution for African countries. Rather than following the conventional pathway of transition from applied research to operational centers, the inverted approach aims to use in-house capacity for rapid event attribution first. It then seeks to strengthen this capacity through strategic partnerships with institutions in the Global North, and finally use the enhanced capacity to conduct rigorous operational event attribution within the continent. These adaptable and scalable suggestions aim to create reinforcing loops that strengthen extreme event attribution practice over time while maintaining the highest scientific rigor.

Operationalizing near-real-time climate hazard attribution information is vital for several reasons. It informs climate change adaptation, climate finance, climate litigation, the effectiveness of geo-engineering solutions, and enhances public awareness and risk understanding. Integrating information on human influence on observed and future changes in extremes enhances the relevance and usability of attribution findings for local decision-making. Identifying which types of extremes are becoming more frequent or intense enables enhancing early warning systems and the design of targeted and effective adaptation measures.

Extreme event attribution can also play a substantial role in operationalizing the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage for Global South countries. By objectively quantifying the anthropogenic component of climate extremes that disproportionately affect vulnerable communities, attribution science helps governments, insurers, and financers calibrate compensation mechanisms. It also supports prioritizing investments in resilient infrastructure and negotiating climate finance under the Paris Agreement’s Loss and Damage framework. However, utilizing event attribution for climate finance assumes availability of data, which otherwise raises ethical, fairness, and justice concerns.

Robust scientific evidence is instrumental in underpinning climate litigation and regulatory action by establishing causal links between emissions and specific extreme events. This strengthens accountability and liability, which is particularly important as climate justice on the continent remains at a nascent stage. Leveraging recent methodological advances in impact attribution while building in-house event attribution capacity can support the assessment of national and regional legal frameworks and further anchor climate justice in Africa. Additionally, near-real-time event attribution information enables timely engagement with the media and the public, addressing the common question of whether climate change played a role in specific events.

Attribution science also enables the assessment of the effectiveness of negative emission geoengineering technologies and the timing of effective net-negative and net zero emissions. This helps in limiting greenhouse gas concentrations and warming levels below critical thresholds, thereby reducing the severity of climate change impacts. Due to the lack of representative evidence on the influence of anthropogenic climate change in Africa, the continent has not been able to sufficiently benefit from all these potential applications. Therefore, there should be initiatives and efforts that can accelerate attribution evidence generation in Africa and other developing regions.

Accelerating the currently slow progress of evidence generation on anthropogenic climate change in Africa requires a multi-faceted approach. Efforts on operationalizing extreme event attribution on the continent should recognize the most critical and constraining bottlenecks, which are the lack of quality observational data and skilled expertise. Providing demand-driven operational near-real-time hazard attribution has near- and long-term benefits in enhancing observational data accessibility. The inverted approach addresses these bottlenecks by starting with the generation of operational attribution information, feeding it into academic research, and creating a positive reinforcing feedback loop.

Climate data in Africa is not only scarce and often of low quality when available, but also frequently inaccessible. One viable solution is to advocate for and raise awareness among the relevant authorities mandated to collect and store climate data. Clearly and effectively communicating the policy relevance of attribution evidence can strengthen demand for climate information and ultimately improve access to available observational datasets. Access to high-resolution convection-permitting climate models is essential for reliably simulating and capturing local-scale processes, and the improved performance of such models in more realistically simulating precipitation in the continent has already been demonstrated.

Establishing strategic partnerships and collaborations with academic and research institutions in the Global North remains essential while consolidating in-house capacity. Knowledge transfer through strategically designed short- and long-term advanced training programs for African climate science experts could be an effective approach ensuring that advanced skills become immediately available. The strategic design of capacity-building initiatives should also consider all available and effective mechanisms for partnerships and collaboration within and among national and regional organizations. An important component of capacity development is the integration of attribution science into postgraduate curricula, ensuring that the highest state-of-the-art scientific standards are maintained in the operationalization of extreme event attribution.

Securing the financial resources needed to enable strategic and effective partnerships remains a challenge. An adequate amount of initial funding could catalyze coordinated efforts to operationalize event attribution and integrate it within National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Climate Centres in Africa, and continental institutions. However, advancing these efforts further and ensuring their long-term sustainability requires the mobilization of internal financial resources. Increased attention and support from regional and continental African organizations could provide the financial basis needed to sustain attribution efforts, ensuring that the resulting evidence is effectively used for climate negotiations and in informing climate policies.

Subject of Research: Operationalizing extreme event attribution in data-scarce African regions

Article Title: Operationalizing extreme event attribution in data-scarce regions: why and how

Article References: Engdaw, M. M. (2026). Operationalizing extreme event attribution in data-scarce regions: why and how. Discover Hazards, 2(1), Article 33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44475-026-00043-2

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s44475-026-00043-2

Keywords: climate attribution, African climate policy, extreme weather events, climate finance, meteorological data, climate litigation, adaptation planning, Global South, anthropogenic influence, climate governance, Operationalizing, extreme