In a groundbreaking study that seamlessly blends seismology, hydrology, and geotechnical science, researchers have unveiled the complex interplay between seismic activity and groundwater fluctuations as key drivers of land deformation in the Kermanshah Province of western Iran. This region, straddling significant tectonic boundaries, has long been a hotspot for geological disturbances, making it an ideal natural laboratory for investigating how the Earth’s crust responds to both seismic forces and subsurface water dynamics.
Kermanshah Province is situated within the Iranian Plateau, a geodynamically active area where the Arabian and Eurasian plates converge. This tectonic setting fosters frequent seismic events, ranging from subtle quakes to more violent tremors, which invariably alter the mechanics of the Earth’s crust. However, seismicity alone does not fully explain the patterns of land deformation observed. Groundwater level changes, driven by seasonal recharge, irrigation, and extraction, overlay additional stresses on an already strained crust, creating a complex feedback system that influences land stability.
The study meticulously analyzed spatial and temporal variations in land elevation across both the western and eastern sectors of Kermanshah Province by integrating seismic data with groundwater measurements collected over several years. The researchers implemented cutting-edge remote sensing methodologies, including Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), to detect minute ground displacements. This allowed for a precise quantification of deformation patterns, revealing that seismic activities and groundwater level changes cannot be examined in isolation when assessing land stability.
Seismic forces induce fracturing and fault movements that alter the subsurface stress regime. These changes can create pathways for groundwater migration or trap water pockets, thereby influencing hydraulic pressures at depth. Conversely, fluctuations in groundwater pressure can modify the stress distribution on fault planes, potentially triggering or dampening seismic events. The study’s findings highlight this bidirectional relationship, emphasizing the need for integrated models that consider both seismicity and hydrological conditions to predict land deformation risks effectively.
The western part of Kermanshah displayed notable land subsidence correlated with a series of moderate seismic events that disturbed existing hydrogeological conditions. The earthquake-induced fracturing appeared to enhance groundwater infiltration into underlying aquifers, increasing pore pressure which, over time, facilitated gradual ground sinking. This phenomenon was particularly evident near major fault zones where the crust was already weakened by tectonic stresses.
In contrast, the eastern region showed a dynamic pattern of alternations between uplift and subsidence tightly linked to seasonal groundwater extraction and recharge cycles. Intensive water withdrawal for agriculture during dry periods caused a sharp drop in groundwater levels, leading to compaction of unconsolidated sediments and associated land subsidence. Subsequent recharge phases partially reversed this deformation, proving that hydrological forces exert spatially and temporally varying influences on land stability.
An intriguing aspect of this investigation is the modulation of seismic hazard by groundwater levels. The study posits that decreased groundwater pressure reduces the normal stress on faults, potentially enabling them to slip more easily during seismic events. Conversely, saturated conditions prior to seismic shaking might either stabilize faults or exacerbate deformation depending on local geological conditions. This nuanced understanding challenges traditional seismic hazard assessments that often overlook hydrological parameters.
Advanced geomechanical models were utilized to simulate the stress-strain behavior of the soil and rock formations under combined seismic loading and groundwater pressure variations. These simulations aligned closely with empirical observations, reinforcing the hypothesis that earthquake-induced changes in groundwater and subsequent land deformation are intrinsically linked processes. The ability to predict deformation hotspots based on combined datasets paves the way for more resilient infrastructure planning and disaster risk reduction strategies in tectonically active regions.
Importantly, the research sheds new light on anthropogenic factors that amplify natural processes. Groundwater extraction, essential for sustaining agriculture and urban demands in Kermanshah, inadvertently exacerbates land subsidence, heightening vulnerability to seismic shaking and surface ruptures. This creates a pressing need for sustainable water management policies that integrate geotechnical insights to mitigate land deformation and improve public safety.
The findings carry significant implications beyond the Iranian Plateau. Arid and semi-arid regions worldwide, where water resources are scarce and seismic risks are elevated, can benefit from similar integrated approaches to monitor and manage land stability. By leveraging remote sensing, ground-based measurements, and numerical modeling, scientists and policymakers can better anticipate ground surface changes and preempt infrastructural damages.
Moreover, the study advocates for the incorporation of groundwater monitoring into seismic hazard frameworks—a shift that would mark a paradigm change in earthquake risk assessment and urban planning. Such multidisciplinary collaborations could extend to early warning systems, where real-time groundwater level data might complement seismic monitoring networks, enhancing predictive accuracy for land subsidence and related hazards.
Future research suggested by the authors includes expanding the temporal resolution of data acquisition to capture transient deformation phenomena associated with episodic seismic bursts and rapid changes in water table levels. High-frequency monitoring may unveil previously undetected couplings between seismic and hydrological processes. Additionally, detailed hydrogeological mapping could refine the understanding of fault permeability and fluid migration pathways, key parameters influencing the mechanics of deformation.
On a micro-scale, geochemical analyses of groundwater samples could reveal how seismic activity alters water chemistry, potentially affecting pore fluid pressures and rock strength at fault interfaces. Such multidisciplinary studies would complemented geophysical observations with chemical signatures, allowing even more comprehensive assessments of seismic-hydrological interactions.
The Kermanshah investigation underscores the importance of viewing geological hazards through an integrated lens, where natural phenomena and human activities are inseparably intertwined. As climate variability intensifies and groundwater resources come under increased demand globally, the lessons learned from this study serve as a cautionary tale and a guiding framework to safeguard vulnerable landscapes from compounded geohazards.
Ultimately, this pioneering research redefines our understanding of land deformation processes in tectonically complex environments. By illuminating the symbiotic relationship between earthquake dynamics and groundwater variations, it equips scientists, engineers, and decision-makers with critical knowledge essential for developing adaptive resilience strategies in an era marked by growing environmental challenges.
Subject of Research: The interaction between seismic activity and groundwater level changes as factors driving land deformation in Kermanshah Province, Iran.
Article Title: The impact of seismic trends and groundwater level on land deformation: a case study of the Western and Eastern areas of Kermanshah Province, West of Iran.
Article References:
Heidari, M., Saedi, B., Mahdiabadi, N. et al. The impact of seismic trends and groundwater level on land deformation: a case study of the Western and Eastern areas of Kermanshah Province, West of Iran. Environ Earth Sci 84, 648 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-025-12667-6
Image Credits: AI Generated
