A groundbreaking study set to be published in the prestigious journal Nature reveals a stark and urgent reality about the state of the global economy and environment. Despite the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) more than doubling from 2000 to 2022, billions of people remain deprived of essential life needs, while simultaneously, humanity is pushing Earth’s life-support systems dangerously beyond their ecological thresholds. This comprehensive analysis, led by researchers Andrew Fanning and Kate Raworth, introduces an innovative annual global dashboard that tracks the interplay between social shortfall and ecological overshoot throughout the 21st century. The findings highlight the profound imbalance where affluent countries disproportionately drive environmental degradation, whereas poorer nations disproportionately suffer social deprivation.
At the heart of this study is the application of the Doughnut Economics framework, a sophisticated model developed to evaluate global progress through the lens of both social and planetary boundaries. The Doughnut framework conceptualizes a safe operating space for humanity, delineated by a social foundation that guarantees life’s essentials for all and an ecological ceiling that prevents environmental harm beyond sustainable limits. Humanity’s challenge, researchers argue, lies in remaining within this doughnut-shaped space where both social justice and environmental sustainability coexist. Data spanning 35 indicators between 2000 and 2022 illuminate the persistent gaps in social welfare alongside escalating breaches in planetary boundaries.
The study’s revelation that economic growth has vastly outpaced human well-being is particularly chilling. Although global GDP has surged, meaningful reductions in deprivations related to food security, health outcomes, educational access, and adequate housing remain painfully slow. The researchers estimate that progress in alleviating social shortfall must accelerate by a factor of five to meet the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Current trajectories suggest that without drastic policy shifts and systemic economic reforms, the vision of equity and basic human dignity for all will remain out of reach.
Ecological overshoot presents an equally pressing crisis. By 2022, humanity had transgressed at least six of the nine critical planetary boundaries, encompassing critical systems such as climate regulation, nutrient cycles, freshwater availability, and biodiversity conservation. The magnitude of overshoot indicates not just a marginal overshooting but a systemic failure to operate within Earth’s safe limits. To restore ecological balance, the pace of environmental repair must nearly double from current rates of degradation. This entails transformative changes in consumption patterns, energy use, agricultural practices, and resource management globally.
A particularly sobering dimension of the analysis is the stark inequality embedded within these global patterns. The richest 20% of countries—housing merely 15% of the global population—are responsible for over 40% of the ecological overshoot. In contrast, the poorest 40%, home to 42% of humanity, endure more than 60% of social deprivation. This asymmetry underscores the moral imperative to rethink global economic systems that enable overconsumption in wealthy nations while perpetuating deprivation elsewhere. It dismantles the assumption that economic growth alone can address both justice and sustainability.
Fanning and Raworth emphasize that traditional metrics like GDP are woefully inadequate to assess true progress in the 21st century. GDP growth often masks the exploitation of natural capital and social inequities rather than reflecting genuine improvements in human and planetary welfare. Their call is clear: policies must shift toward economies designed for regeneration and equitable distribution—economic systems that prioritize human well-being and ecological integrity over endless expansion.
The researchers have also launched an interactive online dashboard that visualizes these critical data trends, providing a powerful tool for policymakers, economists, environmental scientists, and civil society. This platform is set to be updated annually, serving as a dynamic “report card” that monitors global performance on social and ecological indicators. By integrating diverse datasets across social and planetary domains, the dashboard enables nuanced understanding of trade-offs and synergies critical for informed decision-making.
In contextualizing their findings, Fanning and Raworth explain how countries have been categorized into income clusters: the poorest 40%, middle 40%, and richest 20%, based on average gross national income per capita from 2000 to 2022. This stratification helps clarify how economic status influences both social deprivation and environmental impact, revealing systematic patterns of inequality. Such classification also aids in tailoring policy interventions appropriate to each cluster’s specific challenges and capacities.
The indicators measuring social shortfall cover essential human needs, including food security, healthcare access, educational attainment, housing adequacy, energy availability, and public services. These metrics quantify the proportion of populations living below these minimum standards, highlighting where human rights and dignity remain unfulfilled on a massive scale. Meanwhile, ecological overshoot is assessed using per capita resource consumption against downscaled planetary boundaries for climate change, nutrient loadings (nitrogen and phosphorus), freshwater use, and biodiversity loss.
Importantly, the data underlying this analysis capitalize on the most recent and comprehensive global datasets, with a cut-off around 2017 for most indicators, though some, such as public transport metrics, extend to 2020. By anchoring their study in robust empirical evidence, the authors ensure the credibility and actionable potential of their conclusions. The transparency of the methodology also invites scrutiny, replication, and iterative improvements—crucial for evolving sustainability science.
The urgent policy messages emerging from this study resonate with growing calls from global ecological economists, environmentalists, and human rights advocates. The dual imperative to rapidly reduce ecological overshoot while accelerating social progress demands fundamental reengineering of global economic systems. This involves transitioning energy systems to renewables, adopting circular economy principles, enhancing social safety nets, and revising policy incentives from consumption-driven growth to well-being-centered prosperity.
In summary, this study delivers a compelling, data-driven narrative that challenges prevailing paradigms of growth and development. It confirms that the current path is unsustainable and unjust, and posits the Doughnut Economics framework as a pivotal tool for steering humanity toward a balanced future. The evidence for urgent and systemic change is overwhelming—ushering in an era where ecological health and social equity are not competing objectives but intertwined pillars of progress.
Subject of Research: Global social shortfall and ecological overshoot analyzed through Doughnut Economics framework
Article Title: Doughnut of social and planetary boundaries monitors a world out of balance
News Publication Date: 1 October 2025
Web References: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09385-1; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09385-1
Image Credits: Fanning and Raworth (2025)
Keywords: Climate change, Climate data, Anthropogenic climate change, Social sciences
