Across the expansive farmlands of West Africa, the vagaries of weather dictate the fate of millions who rely on agriculture for their livelihoods. In an environment where droughts, floods, heat waves, and erratic winds have become commonplace, farmers grapple with uncertainty that threatens both their crops and their incomes. Yet, despite advances in meteorological data and satellite forecasting, many smallholder farmers remain disconnected from timely, actionable climate information that could transform their decision-making and resilience. This disconnect has driven an unprecedented collaborative inquiry by scientists affiliated with the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, INERA, and the University of Ghana, culminating in a landmark survey of over 1,200 farmers across Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, and Senegal.
The study, published in the journal Frontiers in Climate on July 9, 2025, represents the first large-scale examination of agricultural climate services preferences in this region, employing advanced stated choice modeling to decode the real needs of farmers. By presenting five different “bundles” of climate and agricultural support services—ranging from basic weather forecasts to integrated packages including insurance and credit—the research sought to identify which combinations resonate most with farmers’ complex realities. The findings challenge conventional wisdom about service delivery and underscore the critical importance of melding scientific precision with local context.
What emerged is a narrative of persistent hardship, where every farming season is a high-stakes gamble against an unforgiving climate. Every farmer surveyed reported experiencing drought conditions within the past decade, with half additionally affected by sudden flooding and over a third suffering heat stress on their harvests. The range of climatic stressors—violent winds that flatten millet stalks, storms that damage granaries, pest outbreaks following irregular rains—compound these threats. Under such variability, farmers face impossible choices: whether to sow early and hope for timely rain or delay planting and risk missing key market opportunities. These decisions are made under conditions of limited reliable information, forcing reliance on traditional knowledge and visible environmental signals rather than scientific forecasts.
Yet, when dependable weather intelligence arrives promptly and in a usable form, the benefits can be profound. Parallel studies in Niger and Ethiopia demonstrate that coupling simple, season-long SMS forecasts with practical advice on seed selection and agronomy can enhance farming margins by over 20% every season. Despite this potential, a troubling disparity surfaces in the survey. Fewer than 10% of farmers regularly consult scientific weather information. Instead, most continue to depend on indigenous indicators—the flowering of the néré tree, early-maturing seed varieties, or herd movements in search of less risky pastures.
This gap between information availability and uptake is not for lack of data but rather the absence of meaningful localization and accessibility. Scientific forecasts are often disseminated exclusively in official languages like French, alien to the majority who speak local tongues such as Bambara. Messages frequently arrive after critical farming decisions are finalized, rendering them moot. Adding to these challenges are prohibitive subscription fees that exclude many poor households. Coupled with illiteracy rates nearing 74% in Burkina Faso and widespread cash scarcity, these barriers reduce scientific advice to a hollow promise. Weather forecasts, valuable though they are, essentially become diagnoses lacking actionable remedies unless integrated within broader financial instruments such as microcredit and drought-indexed insurance.
Focusing on farmer preferences, the researchers conducted a detailed choice experiment, offering participants contrasting climate service bundles. These combinations varied in temporal granularity of weather information—daily versus weekly—and in the inclusion of ancillary features like seed selection advice, insurance policies, credit access, and market intelligence. Additionally, delivery methods ranged from SMS and community radio broadcasts to interactive voice response systems. The decisive finding was the overwhelming preference for what was designated “Bundle 4,” a comprehensive offering that merged daily localized weather data, tailored agronomic guidance, drought insurance, and access to seasonal credit. Garnering the endorsement of 45% of respondents, this integrated package decisively outperformed simpler or less frequent forecast models.
Regional nuances punctuate these findings. Farmers in Mali prioritized varietal expertise to confidently time planting amidst unpredictable seasons. Ghanaian farmers placed particular value on insurance mechanisms to mitigate risk, while cash-starved Burkinabe producers emphasized credit access to finance farm inputs and labor. Econometric analysis further confirmed that services providing highly prescriptive and context-specific recommendations—such as exact sowing dates or fertilization rates—significantly elevated perceived utility. Conversely, generic weekly bulletins or non-interactive radio programming barely shifted behavioral intentions. Despite literacy hurdles, SMS messaging emerged as the most effective channel, its advantages lying in rapidity, low cost, and adaptability through culturally relevant pictograms that visually articulate weather phenomena like clouds and rainfall.
The economic valuation embedded in the study reveals intriguing disparities. Senegalese farmers expressed willingness to pay approximately 70 cents per day for ultra-local daily forecasts, whereas Ghanaian peers valued drought insurance at nearly double that figure. These valuations fluctuate based on crop type and farm scale. For instance, irrigated rice producers, who can tolerate more risk due to controlled water supplies, display different demand profiles compared to rainfed millet cultivators. Recognizing such heterogeneity, experts suggest a tiered pricing mechanism combined with targeted subsidies to accelerate massive uptake and ensure equitable access.
Why does Bundle 4 command such strong loyalty? Its strength lies in integrating anticipatory knowledge with protective financial instruments. Adding a hypothetical USD 1,000 loan to this bundle boosts adoption propensity by nearly 40%, yet even without credit incentives, it dominates preference rankings. Farmers’ perception of drought as an existential enemy reinforces the appeal of a service that not only informs when to sow but offers compensation security through insurance and unlocks necessary input financing. This synergy exemplifies circular logic: precise daily weather forecasts validate insurance payouts, which in turn reassure lenders about credit risks. The model echoes the experience of index-insurance deployment in Senegal’s peanut-producing regions, where lack of granular weather data undermined trust, suppressed enrollment, and tempered bank lending.
Additionally, Bundle 4 exemplifies operational efficiencies through cost sharing and service integration. Instead of farmers paying independently for weather data, insurance coverage, and credit administration, a unified subscription streamlines expenses and management overhead. Providers benefit from economies of scale as national meteorological agencies, insurtech startups, microfinance NGOs, and agricultural input firms collaborate to deliver bundled solutions. Projections indicate that such alliances could reduce marginal costs by nearly 40%, making climate services financially sustainable without sacrificing quality or accessibility.
The survey’s implications extend beyond academic curiosity into an urgent policy and implementation roadmap. To catalyze smallholders’ capacity to harness weather information, climate services must evolve far beyond simple radio alerts or standalone datasets. They require embedding within a holistic ecosystem that addresses literacy, financial inclusion, linguistic diversity, and trust. Among the critical strategic imperatives are the prioritization of prescriptive, immediately actionable messages tailored to local contexts, integration of insurance and credit facilities, diversification of communication channels to encompass voice-based solutions for low-literacy and nomadic populations, and segmentation of service offerings attuned to crop types and farming profiles.
Furthermore, the enduring value of local knowledge and indigenous indicators must be recognized and harmonized with scientific outputs to foster ownership and credibility. Providers and policymakers alike must also champion sustainable business models leveraging differential pricing and targeted subsidies, ensuring these vital services remain viable over the long term. Importantly, while Bundle 4 offers an ideal template, maintaining free, low-threshold packages is essential to guarantee universal baseline access.
By strongly advocating for the institutional adoption of these integrated climate service bundles within national agricultural policy frameworks, researchers envision a transformative shift. Governments can underwrite initial insurance premiums, telecommunications companies can facilitate affordable climate SMS pricing, and scientific institutions can refine forecast granularity down to the plot level. Collectively, these measures could reposition farmers at the epicenter of early warning and adaptive decision systems, enhancing resilience and fostering sustainable rural livelihoods in the face of relentless climate disruption.
This pioneering research illuminates a pathway out of the traditional information paradox—the conundrum where data abound but remain uncoupled from users’ real needs and capacities. As the climate crisis intensifies, such innovative, farmer-centric solutions offer hope not only for West Africa’s vulnerable smallholders but for agricultural communities worldwide navigating a future of increasing weather volatility. The challenge now lies in translating these insights into scaled action, catalyzing partnerships, and mobilizing investments to create climate-smart landscapes rooted in knowledge, protection, and empowerment.
Subject of Research: People
Article Title: Climate services bundles preferences of smallholder farmers in West Africa: a stated choice modelling
News Publication Date: 9-Jul-2025
Web References: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/climate/articles/10.3389/fclim.2025.1581001/full
References: DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2025.1581001
Image Credits: Ouedraogo et al. in Frontiers in Climate
Keywords: West Africa, smallholder farmers, climate services, weather forecasts, drought insurance, microcredit, agricultural resilience, stated choice modeling, weather communication, rural development
