Despite notable advancements in statin therapy and improvements in cholesterol management, the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in Mexico has paradoxically escalated between 2016 and 2023. This trend emerges from a recent study presented at ACC Latin America 2025, which employed region-specific predictive tools designed to capture the unique epidemiological characteristics and risk factors prevalent in Latin American populations. The findings underscore the complexity of cardiovascular health dynamics in Mexico despite enhanced pharmacological interventions targeting lipid profiles.
Cardiovascular disease remains the foremost cause of mortality globally, imposing a substantial economic burden on healthcare systems through the costs associated with diagnosis, treatment, and long-term management. The spectrum of risk factors influencing CVD incidence is heterogeneous and includes socio-economic determinants, demographic shifts, hypertension, dyslipidemia, exposure to environmental pollutants such as air pollution, obesity prevalence, and others. Conventional predictive models for cardiovascular risk predominantly derive from datasets gathered in high-income countries or from low- and middle-income regions outside Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), which inevitably limits their precision when applied to the Mexican population or similar cohorts.
Given these limitations, the recent study employed two region-centric risk assessment tools—Globorisk-LAC and World Health Organization (WHO) models—to provide a more accurate appraisal of cardiovascular disease trends in Mexico. Both models incorporate classical risk parameters such as systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes presence, smoking status, body mass index, sex, and age. Notably, Globorisk-LAC constructs its predictive algorithm using data pooled from nine longitudinal cohorts spanning six LAC countries, thereby tailoring risk stratification to the regional context. Conversely, the WHO model relies heavily on data from high-income countries and presents risk charts averaged over subregions within LAC, potentially diluting local specificity.
Analyses utilizing these models revealed an unequivocal increase in the average predicted 10-year risk for cardiovascular events from 2016 through 2023. While Globorisk-LAC’s lab-based and office-based models estimated mean risks of approximately 9.5% and 9.2%, respectively, the WHO model reported a more modest 4.4% increase. This discrepancy likely results from the WHO model’s incorporation of population subsets already undergoing preventive therapies—such as statins and antihypertensive medications—which can understate the background risk in untreated individuals. Furthermore, the Mexican population exhibits a disproportionately high burden of metabolic risk factors, including obesity, early-onset diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia, which may not be fully reflected in globally derived coefficients.
One of the most striking findings relates to the adoption of statin therapy over the observed period. Among individuals deemed eligible according to Globorisk-LAC criteria, statin use surged dramatically from a mere 1% in 2016 to 59% in 2023. This increase coincided with improvements in LDL cholesterol control across low, moderate, and high-risk groups. However, patients classified within the very high-risk category paradoxically displayed worsening LDL-C levels, highlighting significant gaps in secondary prevention measures, adherence, or possibly therapeutic inertia within clinical practice frameworks.
Glycemic control showed encouraging trends, with blood glucose levels falling within targeted thresholds for 78.6% of patients by 2023. In contrast, blood pressure management attained control in only 46.5% of patients, indicating persistent challenges in achieving adequate hypertension control—a known pivotal factor in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular events. These divergent outcomes suggest that while pharmacologic and lifestyle interventions targeting certain cardiovascular risk factors have yielded measurable gains, others remain inadequately addressed.
Public health policies have played a central role in shaping cardiovascular risk factor management in Mexico. Initiatives such as imposing taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages, implementing front-of-package warning labels, banning industrial trans-fatty acids, and restricting advertising and sale of ultra-processed foods in schools have demonstrated substantial effectiveness. These measures, replicated across several LAC countries, have contributed to modifying dietary behavior and reducing the population-wide burden of obesity and metabolic syndrome.
Despite these advances, the study emphasizes that integrating evidence-based clinical guidelines into national healthcare policy remains imperative. The Mexican Ministry of Health has recently endorsed standardized protocols targeting hypertension, type 2 diabetes, obesity, and metabolic syndrome, developed under the auspices of the General Health Council. Successful implementation of these guidelines depends on seamless health system infrastructure, including reliable procurement systems for essential medications and diagnostics, robust screening programs, and mechanisms to prevent treatment discontinuation.
Environmental and social determinants further complicate cardiovascular risk in Mexico. Urban air pollution, socio-economic inequities, and variable access to healthcare resources shape the risk profile in ways not easily captured by conventional biomedical models. The study’s application of region-specific predictive models attempts to address some of these complexities by incorporating local epidemiological data, yet underscores the continuous need for data refinement and model validation to depict evolving disease patterns accurately.
The divergence between Globorisk-LAC and WHO model outputs also raises concerns about the global applicability of widely used cardiovascular risk calculators. The flattening of local risk gradients within the WHO model illustrates how reliance on non-representative data can lead to systemic underestimation of burden, potentially impeding appropriate resource allocation and public health responses in middle-income countries like Mexico.
Ultimately, the research presented advocates for a multi-faceted approach to CVD prevention that synergizes pharmacologic intervention, public health policy, social determinants mitigation, and regionally calibrated risk assessment. This integrated framework promises to deliver tailored, cost-effective strategies capable of reversing the recent upward trends in cardiovascular risk observed in Mexico despite improved statin use and cholesterol control.
The American College of Cardiology (ACC), a globally recognized authority in cardiovascular medicine, continues to champion research and education efforts aimed at optimizing heart health worldwide. The insights offered through region-specific studies such as this one not only enhance understanding of cardiovascular epidemiology in Latin America but also pave the way toward more precise, culturally sensitive clinical and public health interventions.
As cardiovascular disease remains America’s and the world’s leading cause of death, the imperative to develop and adopt accurate, population-specific risk prediction models grows ever more urgent. Future efforts should focus on continuous epidemiologic surveillance and refinement of predictive tools using longitudinal regional datasets. Only then can the global cardiovascular community hope to curtail the pervasive impact of this group of disorders on human health and health systems.
Subject of Research: Cardiovascular disease risk trends and predictive modeling in Mexico using region-specific tools.
Article Title: Rising Cardiovascular Risk in Mexico Despite Improved Statin Use: Insights from Region-Specific Predictive Models
News Publication Date: 2025 (Presenting at ACC Latin America 2025)
Web References:
Keywords: Cardiovascular risk, Mexico, Globorisk-LAC, WHO cardiovascular models, statin therapy, cholesterol control, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, public health policy, Latin America, cardiovascular disease epidemiology
