In the escalating battle against climate change, a formidable barrier has emerged—not in the form of politics or science denial but rather through a subtle and insidious human psychological phenomenon. Despite an abundance of data signaling an urgent crisis, the global populace exhibits a growing sense of climate apathy, largely because the warming of the planet unfolds gradually, prompting people to adapt their mental baseline of “normal” conditions. This phenomenon, sometimes referred to as the “boiling frog” effect, describes how incremental changes can slip under the radar of public concern, undermining the urgency required for immediate, meaningful climate action. A pioneering study from researchers at UCLA and Princeton uncovers a promising communication strategy that could pierce through this apathy by transforming the way climate data is presented to the public.
Climate science often hinges on continuous data—temperature increases measured in fractions of degrees, the slow rise of sea levels over decades, or incremental reductions in the frequency of lake ice cover. Such continuous datasets, while precise, can render the reality of climate change abstract and intangible for many. This abstraction dulls public urgency because humans are neurologically wired to notice stark disruptions more than gradual trends. The UCLA-Princeton team leveraged this insight by comparing people’s responses to two different presentations of the same data: traditional continuous temperature records versus binary, either-or data indicating whether a lake froze during winter seasons.
Their cognitive experiments reveal that the binary framing—“Did a lake freeze or not?”—dramatically enhances individuals’ perception of climate change impacts. When participants assessed climate risks based on gradual temperature graphs, their average concern metric rated 12% lower compared to those provided with binary freeze data for lakes. This distinctive framing evokes stronger emotional resonance because it leverages concrete, relatable seasonal markers rather than abstract numerical trends. The loss of frozen lakes, historically linked to winter traditions like ice skating and ice fishing, conveys a tangible and emotionally charged narrative of climate deterioration.
One might ask why this matters. The crux is that psychological adaptation to gradual environmental changes fosters complacency. People continually recalibrate what they perceive as “normal,” which can delay behavioral and policy responses essential to slowing down greenhouse gas emissions. Rachit Dubey, incoming UCLA communications professor and cognitive psychologist leading the study, explains that individuals have adapted “disturbingly fast” to intensifying environmental stressors such as recurrent wildfire seasons. This recalibration, according to Dubey, diminishes perceived risk and urgency, even as empirical evidence underscores the worsening crisis.
The study’s design incorporated simulated and real-world contexts to test this hypothesis robustly. Initially, participants were introduced to a fictional city, “Townsville,” and asked to evaluate climate impacts introduced via either temperature trends or lake freeze data. Subsequently, the focus shifted to real lakeside cities such as Lake George in New York and Grand Traverse Bay in Michigan. Crucially, the binary data contextualized temperature increases through the disappearance of lake freezing events, making the warming trend visually and emotionally concrete. Furthermore, participants learned about the fading of community activities such as ice skating and fishing tied to the frozen lakes, deepening the emotional connection to environmental loss.
This approach aligns with broader psychological insights highlighting that humans respond more vividly to loss-based framing than to probabilistic or incremental changes. Grace Liu, the study’s lead author and a doctoral candidate at Carnegie Mellon University, emphasizes the necessity of “making the emotional connection to local traditions.” She suggests that the portrayal of climate change should move beyond abstract temperature metrics to communicate the real-world implications, such as the loss of seasonal joys, canceled outdoor youth sports amid heatwaves, or diminishing snow cover affecting skiing traditions. These vivid examples refract the complex science of global warming into relatable, immediate consequences.
Beyond simply reframing data in binary terms, the study’s findings have significant implications for climate communication strategies. Climate change visualizations and educational materials frequently rely on continuous datasets represented with color gradients or line charts, which may fail to elicit needed concern or behavior change. Dubey points to the success of the well-known "Show Your Stripes" climate visualization as evidence of this principle: by reducing complex global temperature patterns into distinctive “stripes” corresponding to warmer or cooler years, the visualization implicitly employs a binary contrast that intuitively conveys change. This insight suggests a paradigm shift in how scientific information is disseminated.
Importantly, the researchers propose their findings as a guide not only for scientists but also policymakers, journalists, and data visualization professionals. Through the intentional use of binary or either-or representations—such as whether extreme weather events occur or the presence or absence of ecological phenomena—climate communication can be made more compelling and accessible to broader audiences. These strategies may help bridge the gap between scientific prediction and public grasp, accelerating societal engagement with climate challenges.
The study also intersects with the pressing need to communicate climate-driven increases in extreme weather events. Rare but devastating incidents like “thousand-year floods,” protracted drought zones, or heat waves are becoming far more frequent and may lend themselves naturally to binary interpretation (Did event X occur this year? Yes/No). Highlighting these shifts using concrete events rather than statistical averages could amplify the perceived immediacy of climate risks.
Furthermore, the psychological phenomenon of “shifting baselines” underscores why many fail to notice long-term environmental decline. The human tendency to continuously reset expectations leads to the normalization of fire seasons, heat extremes, and other ecological disruptions that would previously have been considered exceptional. By employing stark binary data to counteract this adaptation, climate communicators give audiences tangible anchors to evaluate environmental change more accurately.
This study serves as a reminder that the battle against climate change is as much about refining social and cognitive pathways as it is about technology and policy. As the global community endeavors to meet emissions targets and mitigate environmental harm, understanding how people internalize and respond to information will be pivotal. The next wave of climate communication must ensure that the message prompts meaningful awareness, compassion, and action, circumventing the mental mechanisms that foster indifference.
In sum, the UCLA and Princeton study illuminates a critical cognitive challenge that impedes public recognition of climate change’s severity. By converting the slow creep of temperature rise into vivid, binary indicators like the disappearance of frozen lakes or the occurrence of extreme weather, the study offers a scientifically grounded tactic to overcome climate apathy. Bridging empirical data and human psychology, their research charts a promising course for future climate messaging—one that transforms abstract numbers into palpable experiences, forging a stronger emotional connection that could galvanize collective action before critical thresholds are crossed.
Subject of Research: Cognitive and communication strategies to improve public perception of climate change impacts by reframing continuous climate data into binary forms.
Article Title: Informing the Boiling Frog: Binary Climate Data Amplifies Climate Change Perception
News Publication Date: April 17, 2025
Web References:
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-025-02183-9
- https://communities.springernature.com/posts/informing-the-boiling-frog-binary-climate-data-amplifies-climate-change-perception
- https://showyourstripes.info/
- https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/evidence/
- https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/7/7/21311027/covid-19-climate-change-global-warming-shifting-baselines
References:
Dubey, R., Liu, G., et al. (2025). Binary framing of climate data amplifies perception of climate change impacts. Nature Human Behaviour, April 17.
Keywords: Climate change, climate communication, cognitive psychology, climate apathy, data visualization, shifting baselines, environmental perception, temperature trends, binary data representation, seasonal changes, extreme weather events, public engagement.
