Model projects 77% fewer HIV infections with UNAIDS 2030 targets

Achieving the UNAIDS global HIV targets for 2030 could reduce annual new HIV infections by 77%, according to a modeling study that paired epidemic projections with country-level intervention costs. The model estimates that new infections would fall from 1.3 million in 2023 to 300,000 in 2030, while AIDS deaths would decline by 50% over the same period. These are modeled projections rather than observed results from a program already operating at the target level.

The analysis was designed after UNAIDS convened a Global Task Team in 2024 to recommend new targets and approaches for key HIV interventions in 2030. Researchers calibrated the Goals HIV simulation model to the historical HIV epidemic in 134 countries, then used it to project the impact of reaching the targets. The modeling scope included global epidemiological outcomes, while the cost analysis focused on 118 low-, lower-middle- and upper-middle-income countries.

To calculate resource requirements, the authors assembled a database of unit costs for individual interventions. Information came from published studies, country reports and commodity costs, and the researchers combined these estimates with modeled requirements for HIV services. Reaching the targets in the 118-country cost analysis would require US$21.9 billion by 2030. Of that amount, 17% would be needed in low-income countries, 38% in lower-middle-income countries and 45% in upper-middle-income countries. The source does not specify an annual basis for the US$21.9 billion estimate.

The projected HIV burden in 2030 would also remain well below earlier epidemic peaks. If the targets were achieved, annual new infections would reach 9% of their 1995 peak, while AIDS deaths would fall to 13% of their 2004 peak. These comparisons describe the modeled 2030 outcome against historical peak values; they do not by themselves establish a trend across countries or demonstrate the effects of a specific intervention.

HIV funding has declined over the past decade, producing a large gap between available resources and the funding required to pursue global HIV targets. The estimated US$21.9 billion needed for the 118 analyzed countries is nevertheless US$7 billion less than the previous estimate of US$29.3 billion cited in the study. The findings therefore present a model-based assessment in which the UNAIDS 2030 targets are associated with large projected reductions in infections and deaths while requiring fewer resources than the earlier cost estimate, although the magnitude of the health effects depends on the modeled achievement of those targets.

Subject of Research: Modeled impact and cost of reaching UNAIDS global HIV targets for 2030

Article Title: The impact and cost of reaching the UNAIDS global HIV targets

Article References: Stover, J., Mattur, D., Siapka, M., Pliakas, T., & Valladares-Cardona, R. (2026). The impact and cost of reaching the UNAIDS global HIV targets. PLOS Global Public Health, 6(10), e0007360. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0007360

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0007360

Keywords: HIV, UNAIDS, HIV prevention, AIDS deaths, epidemic modeling, health funding, resource costs, 2030 targets, impact, cost, reaching, global