The Quantum Sovereignty Gap: Why Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic Risk Entering the Quantum Era Unprepared

Quantum computing is advancing faster than the institutional capacities of most small island jurisdictions, and a new study published in Frontiers in Human Dynamics argues that this mismatch is not merely a technological lag but a structural condition of sovereignty itself. The research, led by Karen L. Orengo-Serra, an independent researcher based in Mayagüez, Puerto Rico, introduces the concept of a Quantum Sovereignty Gap (QSG) to explain why Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic risk entering the quantum era without the infrastructural, regulatory, or strategic foundations required for autonomy. Using documentary analysis of policy instruments published between 2012 and 2025, a 0–2 ordinal scoring matrix, and a qualitative evidence audit trail, the study evaluates the extent to which both jurisdictions exhibit quantum-ready intent across five dimensions: systemic resilience, infrastructure and cloud sovereignty, regulatory and post-quantum readiness, knowledge sovereignty, and implementation friction.

The geopolitical stakes are considerable. Estimates cited in the article suggest quantum technologies will contribute more than USD 1 trillion to the global economy by 2035, and the World Economic Forum’s Quantum Economy Blueprint warns that countries lacking coordinated quantum strategies will face structural vulnerabilities limiting their participation in the emerging quantum economy. The anticipated moment when quantum algorithms will be capable of breaking widely used cryptographic standards—often labeled Quantum Decryption Day, or QDay—signals not only a technical disruption but a structural reordering of global power. For small island states, whose vulnerabilities include geographical isolation, fragile energy grids, exposure to climate-driven disasters, and dependence on external digital infrastructures, the risks are amplified. The study argues that small states are disproportionately exposed to quantum asymmetries but also possess the potential to leverage quantum technologies as strategic equalizers, particularly in cybersecurity and critical infrastructure optimization, provided their national innovation systems are integrated into global value chains and capable of developing specialized niches.

The QSG is defined as the structural misalignment between a jurisdiction’s constitutional authority, its digital and scientific capabilities, and the infrastructural, regulatory, and algorithmic requirements of the quantum era. Crucially, the framework builds on the WEF’s position that quantum sovereignty does not depend on owning quantum hardware but on securing a strategic position in the quantum value chain, including access to critical infrastructures, post-quantum cryptographic standards, and specialized human capital. The study distinguishes this from adjacent concepts: the digital divide refers to disparities in access to connectivity and devices; technological dependency describes reliance on external industrial ecosystems; and digital, data, and cyber sovereignty each address specific layers of control over infrastructures, data flows, and network governance. None of these frameworks fully capture the quantum-specific vulnerabilities associated with cryptographic collapse, quantum-enabled optimization, or the geopolitical concentration of quantum hardware and cloud infrastructures.

The comparative Policy Gap Audit reveals stark asymmetries between the two territories. Puerto Rico scores 1 on infrastructure sovereignty, reflecting heavy reliance on U.S.-based FedRAMP cloud providers that ensure compliance with federal cybersecurity standards but limit the development of autonomous quantum-ready nodes. The Dominican Republic scores 2 on this dimension, driven by its Sovereign Artificial Intelligence initiative and an NVIDIA Memorandum of Understanding that explicitly mandates the creation of Sovereign AI infrastructure and local data hosting, signaling early movement toward computational autonomy. On knowledge sovereignty, Puerto Rico scores 0, as its industrial policy remains oriented toward external funding and multinational corporate needs with limited endogenous quantum research and development, while the Dominican Republic scores 1, demonstrating emerging capability formation through the NVIDIA Academy and targeted training pathways. Both jurisdictions score 1 on systemic resilience, regulatory readiness, and implementation friction, with neither integrating quantum-enabled optimization or high-performance computational modeling into resilience strategies.

The most critical shared vulnerability is regulatory. Puerto Rico’s Law 40-2024 mandates NIST-standard encryption but does not define a timeline for post-quantum cryptography (PQC) migration, while the Dominican Republic’s National Cybersecurity Strategy prioritizes cryptography yet omits quantum-resistant protocols. Neither jurisdiction has articulated timelines, institutional coordination mechanisms, or technical requirements for PQC migration, representing a critical vulnerability given global store-now-decrypt-later risks, in which encrypted data harvested today can be decrypted once quantum capabilities mature. The study is careful to note that PQC migration does not require sovereign quantum infrastructure; it depends primarily on institutional readiness, regulatory coordination, and the modernization of existing public-key infrastructures. What sovereign control does influence is the degree of autonomy with which jurisdictions can implement, govern, and secure these transitions without relying on external cloud providers, foreign standards, or non-sovereign computational architectures.

Knowledge asymmetries constitute one of the most consequential dimensions of the gap, and the study documents two distinct modalities of brain drain. Puerto Rico maintains one of the strongest STEM talent pipelines in the Caribbean, producing between 10,000 and 12,000 graduates annually, with the University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez and Río Piedras accounting for more than 60 percent of academic R&D expenditure and graduating 1,500 to 2,000 engineers and computer scientists per year. Yet 25 to 35 percent of this high-skill cohort migrates annually to U.S. national laboratories, federal agencies, and deep-tech industries, with outward migration surging after Hurricane María in 2017 and stabilizing above 600 specialized professionals annually by 2025. The result is a paradox of excellence: the island generates quantum-relevant talent but lacks the industrial absorptive capacity to retain it. The Dominican Republic exhibits a more contemporary modality—intangible or virtual brain drain—where STEM programs represent only 15 to 18 percent of total university enrollment and the country has fewer than 100 full-time equivalent researchers per million inhabitants, yet since 2021 a permanent block of cross-border remote digital work has emerged in which high-tier developers and data scientists, while physically located in Santo Domingo, are contracted exclusively by foreign multinationals, strengthening external innovation ecosystems without contributing to domestic R&D, taxation, or intellectual-property registers.

Infrastructural vulnerability further compounds the gap. The study’s FLE tri-diversity assessment shows that Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic are the only Caribbean territories with full tri-diversity—redundant submarine cables, terrestrial fiber loops, and satellite gateways—with Puerto Rico exhibiting the strongest quantum-ready profile in the region through systems including ARCOS-1, SAm-1, CFX-1, the U.S. backbone, MAYA-1, and Columbus-II. However, neither territory meets sub-minute failover requirements for mission-critical systems, and extreme events such as Hurricanes María, Georges, and Fiona demonstrate that blackout and black-sky conditions can disable physical infrastructure for days or weeks, undermining continuity thresholds required for quantum-safe replication and quantum key distribution. Hurricane María produced a 100 percent power outage, approximately 95 percent of cellular towers offline, and an estimated $80 to $95 billion in economic losses, with full grid restoration taking roughly 11 months.

Despite these structural constraints, the study identifies emerging scientific and entrepreneurial assets in both jurisdictions. The Department of Physics at the University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez hosts the Quantum Materials Dynamics Laboratory, where a faculty member secured a US$1 million Army Research Office grant to investigate ultrafast control of quantum phases in superconducting materials, work with direct applications in quantum information science. Venture capital flows from Silicon Valley have materialized through investments from Softbank and 305 Ventures, which jointly allocated approximately one million dollars to local startups Raincoat and Beauty911, while platforms such as Parallel18, Endeavor, and the Bravo Family Foundation have expanded access to global investment networks. In the Dominican Republic, a recent national diagnostic on semiconductor physics and applied electronics outlines growing academic and technological capacities, including university programs in physics and electrical engineering, early development of microelectronic laboratories, and strategic proposals for fabless design, OSAT-based manufacturing, and cleanroom infrastructure, though the country lacks semiconductor manufacturing capacity and relies instead on assembly, testing, and limited fabless design.

The study concludes that quantum readiness will depend less on formal sovereignty and more on the ability to mobilize talent, govern data, and finance resilient computational infrastructures. It identifies a potential regional opportunity through a proposed Puerto Rico–Dominican Republic Quantum Corridor, a binational platform capable of coordinating investment, harmonizing regulatory approaches, and pooling scientific and industrial capabilities. Puerto Rico’s research infrastructure and diaspora-linked venture networks, combined with the Dominican Republic’s emerging digital industrial strategy and expanding entrepreneurial ecosystem, create complementary strengths that neither jurisdiction possesses alone. Recent policy signals reinforce this trajectory: during the Third Ministerial Summit on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence held in Santo Domingo in June 2026, ministers from across Latin America and the Caribbean approved the Declaración de Santo Domingo and a regional roadmap for 2026–2027, emphasizing cooperation, interoperable governance mechanisms, talent development, and coordinated regulatory approaches—precisely the institutional conditions the study argues are required for quantum-ready governance. The quantum transition, the article argues, is not merely a technological shift but a redefinition of sovereignty itself, and for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic the stakes are existential.

Subject of Research: Quantum sovereignty and constitutional asymmetry: mapping the sovereignty gap in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic

Article Title: Quantum sovereignty and constitutional asymmetry: mapping the sovereignty gap in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic

Article References: Orengo-Serra, K. L. (2026). Quantum sovereignty and constitutional asymmetry: mapping the sovereignty gap in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Frontiers in Human Dynamics, 8, Article 1885922. https://doi.org/10.3389/fhumd.2026.1885922

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.3389/fhumd.2026.1885922

Keywords: Quantum Sovereignty Gap, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Post-Quantum Cryptography, QDay, Small Island Developing States, FedRAMP, NVIDIA Sovereign AI, Brain Drain, Quantum Corridor, Digital Sovereignty, Caribbean