At the end of October 2024, the eastern region of the Iberian Peninsula experienced an extraordinary meteorological event that left an indelible impact on the province of Valencia. Within a single day, rainfall measurements in locations such as Turís surpassed 700 litres per square meter—a staggering volume that eclipses the average annual precipitation across mainland Spain. This intense deluge triggered catastrophic flooding, leading to a tragic death toll exceeding 200 and causing extensive infrastructural and economic damages amounting to billions of euros. This event became a stark reminder of the destructive potential of extreme weather phenomena in a warming world and highlighted the urgency for in-depth scientific investigation.
A newly published study, spearheaded by a multidisciplinary team from the Earth Sciences Department at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), sheds crucial light on the atmospheric and oceanic factors that converged to create such an unprecedented episode of rainfall. The research emphasizes the pivotal influence of elevated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in both the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean during that period. While prior analyses had primarily attributed the severity of the event to local Mediterranean warming, the novel aspect of this study is its identification of the exceptional warmth in the North Atlantic as a significant contributor, an aspect that had previously gone unexplored in this context. The interplay of these oceanic temperature anomalies boosted moisture availability and created atmospheric conditions conducive to intense precipitation over Valencia.
The BSC team harnessed the computational power of MareNostrum 5, one of the world’s most advanced supercomputers, to simulate the atmospheric dynamics at a high spatial and temporal resolution. Utilizing sophisticated climate models, they generated multiple scenarios contrasting the actual SSTs observed during the event with climatological averages expected for that season. This methodology allowed the researchers to isolate the specific influence of anomalous sea temperatures on the rainfall extremity. Their simulations revealed that the recorded rainfall could have been up to 40% less intense without the contributory effect of the unusually warm waters. Notably, the North Atlantic warming alone accounted for an approximate 15% increase in precipitation intensity, indicating its marked role alongside Mediterranean influences.
Beyond its scientific novelty, this finding extends our understanding of climate extremes by placing them within a broader ocean-atmosphere systemic framework, rather than viewing them purely through local lenses. The valencian precipitation event exemplifies how regional climatic phenomena are often underpinned by interconnected processes spanning vast geographic scales. The study underscores the necessity of considering remote oceanic conditions that modulate atmospheric moisture and circulation patterns, thereby shaping localized weather extremes. Such comprehensive perspectives are essential in an era where climate change is altering ocean temperatures globally, potentially amplifying the frequency and severity of analogous events worldwide.
Ramiro Saurral, the lead author of the study and a prominent researcher at BSC’s Climate Variability and Change group, articulates this integrative approach succinctly: understanding the devastation wrought by an extreme event demands examining factors far beyond the immediate impacted zone. “The state of the ocean, even hundreds of kilometers away, can decisively magnify the intensity and impact of extreme weather. This study exemplifies the importance of multi-scale environmental diagnostics in climate science,” he explains. This paradigm shift challenges traditional localized hazard assessments and promotes a holistic assessment of climate risk.
From a societal vantage point, the implications of this research are profound. Improved comprehension of the ocean-atmosphere nexus that fuels extreme weather enhances predictive capabilities, enabling more accurate anticipation and management of such catastrophes. Enhanced forecasting models can guide emergency responses, infrastructure resilience planning, and adaptive land-use policies, thereby reducing human and economic losses. As the global climate continues to evolve, the capacity to model and predict these multi-scale interactions will become indispensable for safeguarding vulnerable populations and essential services.
Efforts such as the Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT), part of the European Destination Earth initiative, illustrate the forward trajectory inspired by these findings. The BSC is deeply engaged in developing this ambitious system, which seeks to deliver precise global climate simulations at unprecedented spatial and temporal granularity. By integrating planetary-scale data and enabling scenario-driven analyses of extreme events like the Valencia flood, Climate DT aims to become an essential tool for policymakers and scientists alike. Such digital twin frameworks promise to revolutionize real-time climate risk assessments and strategic adaptation planning in a warming world.
Francisco Doblas-Reyes, an ICREA professor and BSC’s Earth Sciences Department director, emphasizes why global, high-resolution climate modeling is critical. “Climate change does not manifest as isolated local phenomena; instead, it is the cumulative effect of interconnected processes occurring across the planet. Tools like the Destination Earth’s Climate DT allow us to dissect how large-scale oceanic and atmospheric dynamics influence regional climatic events, elevating our understanding and response capabilities,” he states. This perspective advocates for investment in computational infrastructure and interdisciplinary collaboration as foundations of modern climate science.
The March 2026 publication of this study in the journal Weather and Climate Extremes represents a milestone in climate research, highlighting the nuanced roles played by multiple ocean basins in a single, devastating weather event. Through advanced computational simulation and modeling, it bridges gaps between atmospheric sciences, oceanography, and climate dynamics while producing actionable insights for society. The authors collectively call attention to the imperative of enhancing our observational networks and simulation tools to capture the complexity of Earth’s climate system, particularly as anthropogenic warming accelerates extreme event occurrence and intensity.
Diego Campos, co-author and fellow researcher at BSC, underscores the human dimension intertwined with these scientific discoveries: “Extreme weather events like the Valencia flood are not merely meteorological curiosities; they translate into very real impacts on human lives, community safety, and critical infrastructure. Recognizing the broader oceanic influences empowers us to better anticipate and mitigate these profound risks.” The study thus serves as a clarion call for bridging scientific research with social preparedness and policy development.
Looking ahead, the findings invite further exploration into how oceanic anomalies in other regional contexts might similarly exacerbate or attenuate extreme weather phenomena. Given the accelerating pace of sea surface warming across multiple ocean basins, understanding these ocean-atmosphere couplings assumes ever-greater urgency. Integrating multidisciplinary approaches that combine high-performance computing, satellite data assimilation, and regional climate modeling will be key to unraveling the complex feedbacks that govern extreme precipitation events and their socioeconomic repercussions.
In conclusion, the 2024 Valencia precipitation event serves as a vivid illustration of the interconnectedness of Earth’s climate system and the need to transcend isolated regional analyses. By revealing the synergistic roles of Mediterranean and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, the BSC-led study marks a significant advance in our capacity to decode and forecast extreme weather episodes. This progress not only deepens fundamental scientific knowledge but also equips societies with the tools necessary to confront the mounting challenges posed by climate change-induced extremes in a more informed and resilient manner.
Subject of Research: The influence of elevated Mediterranean and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures on extreme precipitation events.
Article Title: The key role of Mediterranean and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures on the 2024 record-breaking Valencia precipitation event
News Publication Date: 27-Feb-2026
Web References:
- Study: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094726000289
- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100877
- Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin: https://destine.ecmwf.int/climate-change-adaptation-digital-twin-climate-dt/
- Destination Earth Initiative: https://destination-earth.eu/
References:
Saurral, R. I., Campos, D. A., Grayson, K., Lapin, V., Trascasa-Castro, P., Tourigny, E., Donat, M. G., Materia, S., Ferrer, E., Doblas-Reyes, F. J. (2026). The key role of Mediterranean and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures on the 2024 record-breaking Valencia precipitation event. Weather and Climate Extremes, 52, 100877. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100877
Keywords: Climate change, sea surface temperatures, Mediterranean Sea, North Atlantic Ocean, extreme precipitation, flooding, high-resolution climate modeling, ocean-atmosphere interaction, climate adaptation, supercomputing simulations, regional climate extremes
