A new study from Bayes Business School, formerly known as Cass Business School and part of City St George’s, University of London, reveals a stark and unsettling reality underpinning the UK’s economic stagnation: the reversal of decades-long improvements in life expectancy. The research, published in the renowned journal Risks, delves into the intricate interplay between health inequalities, economic inactivity, and social pressures, painting a comprehensive picture of how stalled life expectancy is reshaping the fabric of British society and its economy. This study argues that without decisive and innovative prevention strategies targeting unhealthy lifestyles—especially in deprived communities—the UK faces a mounting crisis that extends well beyond healthcare.
Since 2010, the UK has witnessed a disquieting plateau in life expectancy, a trend sharply exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Among 17 advanced economies studied, the UK experienced the second most significant decline in life expectancy post-pandemic, trailing only behind the United States. This stagnation signals a critical and unprecedented challenge to public health infrastructure, raising urgent questions about the cumulative effects of deprivation, chronic illness, and social determinants of health on population longevity. The study highlights that deprived areas are burdened not only with shorter overall lifespans but also with disproportionately longer periods of poor health, creating an extensive “health gap” within the nation.
At the heart of this crisis lies the concept of “healthy life expectancy,” which measures the years individuals can expect to live in good health, free of disability or significant illness. Evidence from earlier studies by Professor Les Mayhew and colleagues suggests that a modest five-year improvement in healthy life expectancy could yield a two-year overall increase in lifespan. More importantly, it could prolong working lives by nearly one year, contributing markedly to economic productivity and reducing dependence on welfare benefits. These benefits, the study argues, carry a fiscal multiplier effect, translating into economic gains equivalent to approximately 2.4% of the UK’s tax revenue—a non-trivial sum capable of reshaping public finances.
Economic inactivity driven by poor health has emerged as a major catalyst in the rising welfare costs that currently strain the nation’s budget. Since 2019, the number of working-age individuals claiming health- or disability-related benefits has surged by 33%, climbing from 2.1 million to 2.8 million claimants. Projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility anticipate that welfare spending on these benefits will escalate to £63 billion annually by the decade’s end, almost doubling the £36 billion reported in 2019. This burgeoning financial burden not only challenges government budgets but also stymies economic growth by removing a significant segment of the working-age population from active labor force participation.
The socioeconomic consequences ripple beyond just welfare costs. The surge in economic inactivity has consequential knock-on effects on labor markets and immigration patterns. The study asserts a correlation between rising economic inactivity and increased net immigration, currently approximating half a million people annually. This influx largely stems from employers’ demand to fill low-wage positions that native workers, often hampered by poor health, cannot occupy. Such labor market distortions create political and social tensions, feeding into divisive narratives around post-Brexit immigration and intensifying pressures on housing infrastructure and community services.
Fundamentally, the study frames poor health and its economic repercussions as interwoven drivers behind many of the UK’s most pressing public policy challenges. These include overwhelming NHS waiting lists, expanded welfare dependency, constrained economic growth, and social cohesion difficulties. Importantly, these issues disproportionately afflict the poorest communities, perpetuating cycles of deprivation and reinforcing stark health inequalities. The authors argue that recognizing poor health as a root cause could reorient policy priorities toward prevention and cross-sectoral interventions rather than reactive expenditures.
One of the most compelling insights from Professor Mayhew’s research is the disconnect between life expectancy and health quality. While some regions exhibit modest gains in longevity, the corresponding quality of those additional years remains questionable. Deprived populations experience extended periods living with chronic illnesses, limiting their social and economic participation. This phenomenon, described as an “asymmetrical relationship” between health and lifespan, compounds public expenditure through increased healthcare utilization and social welfare dependency, further exacerbating economic pressure.
The study underscores a crucial need for a comprehensive framework that integrates health outcomes and economic analysis over individuals’ life courses. Traditional public health approaches often isolate medical metrics from economic imperatives, resulting in fragmented policies. By linking health directly to public finances and labor market outcomes, policymakers could craft evidence-based strategies that are fiscally sound and socially equitable. Professor Mayhew suggests that the ultimate policy challenge lies in balancing immediate political feasibility with the long-term horizon required to realize the benefits of health prevention.
Prevention, however, is no panacea and faces significant political and societal hurdles. The study points to legislative efforts such as banning tobacco sales to anyone born after 2008 as laudable but slow to manifest measurable health and economic outcomes. Early prevention policies risk alienating segments of the public and business sectors reliant on industries like tobacco or unhealthy food products. Thus, politicians must demonstrate courage and resilience to withstand short-term backlash from “sin taxes” or regulatory disruptions, knowing the true dividends unfold over decades.
The implications for the UK economy, as drawn from the study, extend beyond mere public health. Stalled life expectancy acts as an economic brake, lowering productivity growth at a time when the nation struggles to recover from the 2008 financial crisis and the unprecedented shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reduced labor force participation, amplified welfare costs, and stretched healthcare services collectively impair economic resilience. This reinforces calls for integrated health and economic policies that view wellbeing not just as a social good but as essential economic infrastructure.
In conclusion, the Bayes Business School research provides a clarion call for transformative action linking health and economic policy in the UK. By explicitly quantifying the economic costs of poor health and the benefits of prevention, the study attempts to fill a vital gap in evidence that could galvanize more effective interventions. The path forward requires a comprehensive, data-driven strategy emphasizing prevention, socioeconomic equity, and cross-disciplinary collaboration to reverse stalled life expectancy trends and unlock the latent potential of a healthier population.
Subject of Research: People
Article Title: Impact of Stalled Life Expectancy on Health and Economic Inactivity in the UK and the Case for Prevention
News Publication Date: 2-Nov-2025
Web References:
DOI link
References:
Counting the cost of inequality – putting a price on health, Journal of Demographic Economics 89(3), October 2023.
Keywords:
Demography, Socioeconomics
