In an age defined by an unprecedented convergence of threats, the resilience of critical infrastructures faces challenges of a magnitude never before encountered. Recent research spearheaded by A.S. Jovanović, published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Science in 2025, explores the pressing need for stress-testing mechanisms capable of assessing the robustness of essential systems under the strain of polycrises triggered by emerging risks. As societies worldwide increasingly depend on interconnected infrastructure, understanding how these systems react under compounded pressures is critical for disaster preparedness and mitigation.
Modern critical infrastructures—encompassing power grids, transportation networks, water and sanitation systems, communication channels, and healthcare facilities—stand as the backbone of societal functioning. Their failure during crises can precipitate cascading effects, crippling economies and endangering lives on a massive scale. Yet, traditional approaches to resilience testing have often considered threats in isolation, overlooking the complex interactions that arise when multiple crises co-occur. Jovanović’s work addresses this glaring gap by focusing on polycrises—simultaneous, overlapping emergencies driven by multiple, interlinked emerging risks.
Emerging risks, as characterized by the research, refer to threats that arise from fast-evolving technological, environmental, geopolitical, or socio-economic domains. For instance, the rise of cyber-physical systems integrates digital technologies with physical infrastructure, introducing vulnerabilities previously unseen. Simultaneously, climate change intensifies natural hazard risks, while geopolitical conflicts exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The result is a multifaceted threat landscape where traditional resilience frameworks may no longer suffice to anticipate or withstand such compounded stressors.
The methodology proposed by Jovanović employs advanced simulation-based stress-testing models that replicate scenarios in which multiple risk factors interact dynamically. Unlike historical stress tests focused primarily on singular events like hurricanes or blackouts, these models push infrastructures into hypothetical states of duress caused by concurrent events, such as a cyberattack during a widespread flood, or a pandemic coinciding with an energy crisis. By capturing these interactions, the models yield a more realistic evaluation of systemic vulnerabilities and potential failure points.
Central to the analysis is the recognition that critical infrastructures do not operate in isolation. Their interdependencies mean that failure in one system frequently precipitates failures in others, leading to rapid cascades of disruption. For example, an outage in the electrical grid can disable water treatment plants, which may, in turn, affect public health services and emergency response capabilities. The research underscores the complex networked nature of modern infrastructure and emphasizes the necessity for resilience metrics that account for these interconnected feedback loops.
Jovanović’s research also highlights the role of adaptive capacity — the ability of infrastructure systems to respond, recover, and transform in the wake of shocks. Stress-testing scenarios probe whether existing systems can dynamically reroute resources, implement contingency protocols, and leverage redundancies to maintain operations. The findings indicate that many infrastructures exhibit brittle points where adaptive capacity is constrained, underscoring the urgency for redesigning systems with greater flexibility and modularity.
Of particular interest is the study’s examination of governance frameworks surrounding infrastructure management. Polycrises often demand coordinated responses across multiple agencies, jurisdictions, and sectors. The paper discusses how fragmented governance can hamper effective mitigation and recovery, especially in the face of novel, compounding risks. It advocates for integrated governance structures that promote real-time data sharing, joint contingency planning, and cross-sector collaboration as fundamental enablers of resilience.
Technological innovation emerges as a double-edged sword in the analysis. On one hand, digital monitoring systems, artificial intelligence, and predictive analytics enhance situational awareness and decision-making. On the other, increased digitalization opens pathways for cyber risks that, when combined with physical hazards, could undermine the very infrastructures they intend to safeguard. The research calls for a holistic approach to infrastructure security that merges cyber resilience with traditional physical protection.
Jovanović pays special attention to the human element within resilience strategies. Infrastructure operators, emergency responders, policymakers, and communities all play critical roles in managing and adapting to polycrises. The research advocates for regular training, stakeholder engagement, and public communication strategies that enhance collective situational awareness and accelerate recovery efforts. Stress-testing can serve as a powerful tool to prepare these actors for the complexity and unpredictability inherent in compounded crises.
The study also raises the question of investment prioritization under resource constraints. Given the broad scope of emerging risks and infrastructure vulnerabilities, decisions about where to allocate capital for upgrades, redundancies, or replacements become fraught with uncertainty. By identifying which components or nodes within infrastructure networks are most susceptible to failure cascades, the stress-testing framework guides policymakers and planners in targeting their investments for maximum resilience impact.
Jovanović introduces a conceptual shift away from resilience as merely surviving shocks toward resilience as a dynamic process encompassing anticipation, absorption, recovery, and transformation. This aligns with emerging paradigms in disaster risk science that emphasize learning from crises and proactively redesigning systems to thrive amid uncertainty and change. The stress-testing tools described in the research are designed to support this transformative ambition by uncovering hidden vulnerabilities and fostering innovation in infrastructure design.
The implications of this work extend beyond traditional disaster risk management. As the world increasingly confronts the realities of climate change, pandemics, geopolitical instability, and technological revolutions, the resilience of critical infrastructures becomes a linchpin of global security. Jovanović’s research thus serves as a clarion call to engineers, policymakers, and society at large to reimagine infrastructure resilience through the lens of polycrises and emerging risks.
Importantly, the research also emphasizes the need for international collaboration and knowledge sharing. Polycrises frequently transcend national borders, and infrastructure systems are embedded within global supply chains and communication networks. Building resilience requires coordinated efforts on a global scale, where lessons learned from stress-testing in one context inform preparations and policies elsewhere. The paper advocates for establishing platforms to foster such cooperation and disseminate best practices.
From a technical standpoint, the stress-testing approach leverages cutting-edge computational methods, including system dynamics modeling, agent-based simulations, and network theory analytics. These tools enable researchers to capture the nonlinear, often unpredictable interdependencies that characterize critical infrastructure systems. The integration of real-time data feeds and historical incident databases enhances the fidelity and relevance of simulations, providing actionable insights for decision-makers.
Finally, the research acknowledges limitations and challenges in implementing these stress-testing frameworks. Data gaps, institutional inertia, and the thorny issue of balancing transparency with security considerations pose ongoing obstacles. Nevertheless, Jovanović remains optimistic that continued interdisciplinary research, combined with policymaker engagement and technological advancement, can overcome these barriers and realize a new standard in infrastructure resilience assessment.
In sum, the work presented in this 2025 study advances our collective understanding of how critical infrastructures can be stress-tested against the brutal realities of polycrises catalyzed by emerging risks. By capturing the complex, interconnected nature of today’s threat environment, the research provides a roadmap for more robust, adaptive, and forward-looking resilience strategies. As societies face an uncertain future marked by volatility and complexity, such innovations in disaster risk science are not just timely—they are essential.
Subject of Research: Stress-testing resilience of critical infrastructure systems exposed to polycrises from emerging risks.
Article Title: Stress-Testing the Resilience of Critical Infrastructures Exposed to Polycrises Triggered by Emerging Risks.
Article References:
Jovanović, A.S. Stress-Testing the Resilience of Critical Infrastructures Exposed to Polycrises Triggered by Emerging Risks. Int J Disaster Risk Sci (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-025-00663-0
Image Credits: AI Generated
