In recent years, the urgent need to mitigate climate change has driven the scientific community to explore innovative avenues for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. One promising strategy is carbon capture and storage (CCS), wherein CO₂ is injected into deep geological formations to prevent its release into the atmosphere. A groundbreaking study led by Li, Wang, and Wang has now shed light on the potential of saline aquifers in the Permian Shiqianfeng formation, located in the Yulin area of the Ordos Basin, to securely store CO₂ despite inherent challenges such as low porosity and strong geological heterogeneity. Using advanced 3D geological modeling techniques constrained by horizontal probability trends, the research team offers new insights that could significantly influence future CCS projects.
The Ordos Basin, one of China’s largest sedimentary basins, harbors extensive saline aquifers that could serve as reliable repositories for CO₂. However, low porosity and complex heterogeneity in formations like the Permian Shiqianfeng pose significant technical obstacles for storage efficiency and long-term security. Porosity dictates how much pore space is available to accommodate injected CO₂, while heterogeneity impacts fluid flow pathways and plume migration dynamics. Traditionally, formations with such geologic characteristics were considered less suitable or required highly specialized modeling to evaluate their storage potential accurately.
To overcome these challenges, Li and colleagues employed a sophisticated three-dimensional geological modeling approach that factors in horizontal probability trends—a statistical method to better capture spatial sedimentary patterns and depositional controls. By integrating core sample data, well logs, and seismic interpretations, the model reconstructs a detailed representation of the formation’s structural and stratigraphic framework. This allows the team to simulate CO₂ injection scenarios realistically, illustrating how injected gases would migrate, dissolve into brine, or become trapped over time within the reservoir.
One of the key revelations of this study is how horizontal probability trends serve as an effective constraint to refine geological surfaces and facies distribution in heterogeneous reservoirs. Typically, vertical heterogeneity has dominated reservoir characterization, but horizontal facies variations—such as shifts in sediment grain size or permeability—can dramatically affect flow continuity and compartmentalization. The model demonstrates that incorporating these lateral sedimentological trends leads to more accurate predictions of storage capacity and injectivity, even in formations previously deemed problematic due to their complexity.
Furthermore, the simulation results indicate that despite the low porosity levels characteristic of the Shiqianfeng formation, the overall storage potential remains substantial when heterogeneity is properly accounted for. Enhanced understanding of channelized sediment pathways and isolated porous pockets enables optimization of injection well placement and operational parameters to maximize CO₂ sweep efficiency. This customized modeling approach mitigates risks such as early breakthrough or plume leakage, ensuring safer long-term containment.
This research also underscores the importance of multiscale geological data integration. Core samples provide microscopic insights into pore structure and mineralogy, well logs yield vertical stratigraphy continuity, and seismic data offer broader lateral context. The combined use of these datasets within the horizontal probability trend framework produces a robust, high-resolution digital twin of the reservoir. Such a tool facilitates iterative testing of different CO₂ injection schemes and pressure management strategies before field deployment.
Crucially, these advancements have global implications as CCS initiatives expand worldwide. Many potential storage sites share similar geological traits with the Permian Shiqianfeng—low porosity reservoirs peppered with complex sedimentary features that confound conventional characterization. By pioneering an approach that embraces rather than simplifies heterogeneity, Li and team’s methodology could unlock vast untapped capacity for geologic carbon sequestration in otherwise underutilized formations, accelerating the transition to net-zero emissions.
Moreover, the study suggests operational scenarios that optimize injection pressure regimes to minimize induced seismicity risks while maximizing reservoir injectivity. Since heterogeneous formations often include mechanically variable lithologies, differentiating stress response and fracture propagation becomes essential for safe CCS operations. The three-dimensional modeling provides a virtual laboratory to explore these coupled geomechanical-fluid flow processes, informing best practices for field implementation.
Environmental safety remains paramount in CCS projects, and the authors emphasize the critical role of monitoring strategies post-injection. Their model enables prediction of CO₂ plume movement pathways, improving the design of surveillance systems to detect leakage or unexpected migration promptly. The enhanced geological understanding significantly reduces uncertainty, promoting stakeholder confidence and regulatory approvals.
In conclusion, Li, Wang, and Wang’s research exemplifies how integrating cutting-edge geological modeling with advanced statistical constraints can transform our approach to carbon storage in challenging reservoirs. The use of horizontal probability trend analysis within 3D frameworks not only advances academic knowledge but also provides practical tools for industry-scale CO₂ sequestration projects. As climate pressures intensify, such innovations will become indispensable in deploying effective, large-scale carbon mitigation technologies.
Looking ahead, future work inspired by this study may explore coupling these geological models with reactive transport simulations to further assess mineral trapping potential and long-term geochemical stability. Additionally, digital twin frameworks like the one developed here could be adapted for other subsurface applications, including enhanced geothermal systems and unconventional hydrocarbon recovery, highlighting their versatility. The pathway carved by this investigation illustrates a paradigm shift where embracing complexity rather than simplifying it yields superior predictive power and operational insight.
This study serves as a beacon for researchers and policymakers alike, demonstrating that formidable geological challenges can be overcome by leveraging detailed spatial statistics and integrated subsurface characterization. Unlocking the CO₂ storage capacity of saline aquifers with low porosity and strong heterogeneity in globally significant basins is no longer a dream but an achievable goal. The pathway to a more sustainable energy future is clearer and more attainable thanks to these pioneering efforts.
Subject of Research: Assessing the carbon dioxide storage potential in saline aquifers with low porosity and strong heterogeneity in the Permian Shiqianfeng formation of the Yulin area, Ordos Basin, using advanced 3D geological modeling constrained by horizontal probability trends.
Article Title: Assessing CO₂ storage potential in saline aquifers with low porosity and strong heterogeneity in Permian Shiqianfeng formation in the Yulin area, Ordos Basin: optimization based on a 3D geological model constrained by horizontal probability trend.
Article References:
Li, H., Wang, Z. & Wang, C. Assessing CO₂ storage potential in saline aquifers with low porosity and strong heterogeneity in Permian Shiqianfeng formation in the Yulin area, Ordos Basin: optimization based on a 3D geological model constrained by horizontal probability trend. Environ Earth Sci 84, 329 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-025-12293-2
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