In a groundbreaking study published in BMC Psychology, a team of Iranian researchers has unveiled a novel tool designed to gauge earthquake risk perception within the Iranian population, harnessing the theoretical framework of the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM). This innovative approach transcends traditional methods by intricately dissecting how individuals perceive and respond to the threat of earthquakes. Given Iran’s geographical vulnerability to seismic activity, such a tool promises to revolutionize disaster preparedness strategies and enhance public safety measures.
Earthquakes are among the most devastating natural disasters, with the potential to inflict catastrophic loss of life and property. Despite advances in structural engineering and early warning systems, the human factor—how people perceive and react to the risk—remains a critical determinant in mitigating earthquake impact. The psychological dimensions of risk perception are complex, influenced by cognitive, emotional, social, and cultural elements. Until now, there has been a glaring need for an indigenous, psychometrically robust instrument that could capture these nuances in the Iranian context.
The development process of this earthquake risk perception tool was meticulous and grounded in scientific rigor. The researchers adopted the Extended Parallel Process Model as their conceptual scaffold, a well-established psychological theory that elucidates how fear appeals influence individual behavior by balancing perceptions of threat and efficacy. The EPPM posits that individuals’ responses to risk messages depend not only on the perceived severity and susceptibility to the threat but also on their belief in the effectiveness of the recommended protective action and their own ability to carry it out.
The initial phase involved qualitative studies and literature reviews to identify the specific factors shaping earthquake risk perception among Iranians. Drawing from a diverse pool of participants across different demographics and seismic-prone regions, the researchers highlighted key determinants such as prior earthquake experience, trust in governmental preparedness, cultural beliefs, and information sources. These insights fed into generating a comprehensive item pool that captured various dimensions outlined in the EPPM.
Subsequently, the instrument underwent rigorous psychometric evaluations, including exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, to validate the underlying structure of the tool. These statistical techniques refined the questionnaire to ensure reliability and validity, confirming that the items coalesced into coherent subscales reflecting perceived threat, efficacy beliefs, and response behaviors. The final questionnaire can deliver nuanced profiles of earthquake risk perception, differentiating between individuals who are likely to take proactive steps and those who might be prone to denial or fatalism.
The implications of this research are manifold and profound. On a practical level, emergency response agencies and policymakers can leverage the tool to segment populations based on their psychological readiness for earthquakes. Tailored communication strategies can be deployed to address specific barriers, such as fatalistic attitudes or skepticism about earthquake preparedness measures. Such targeted interventions could dramatically improve community resilience by fostering more adaptive behavioral responses before, during, and after seismic events.
Moreover, the theoretical contribution of applying the EPPM to earthquake risk is significant. While this model has been extensively used in health communications and public safety campaigns, its extension to the realm of natural disaster risk perception marks a pioneering stride. The nuanced understanding that emerges from this approach highlights that simply imparting knowledge about earthquake dangers is insufficient; it is imperative to simultaneously enhance individuals’ beliefs in their capability and the effectiveness of preparedness actions to elicit meaningful behavior change.
Iran’s seismic landscape, shaped by multiple active fault lines, historically accounts for some of the deadliest earthquakes globally. Despite continuous efforts to improve infrastructure and develop early warning systems, large segments of the population remain vulnerable, in part due to gaps in risk perception. This tool offers an evidence-based pathway to bridge these gaps by elucidating the psychological barriers that hinder adequate preparedness and by promoting a culture of proactive mitigation.
The study also underscores the importance of cultural context in shaping risk perceptions. The Iranian society’s unique social fabric, religious beliefs, and historical experiences with earthquakes influence how risk messages are decoded and internalized. Integration of culturally sensitive elements into the tool ensures that risk communication strategies derived from this instrument resonate more deeply with the target population, increasing their efficacy.
Besides its immediate application in Iran, the methodological framework and insights from this research possess global relevance. Earthquake-prone regions worldwide share many challenges related to public compliance with safety recommendations, often rooted in psychological resistance or fatalistic attitudes. Adaptations of this tool, validated across cultures, could inform international disaster risk reduction efforts and scientific inquiry into risk perception dynamics.
Technologically, the researchers envision leveraging digital platforms to administer the earthquake risk perception tool broadly and efficiently. Mobile apps and online surveys could facilitate real-time data collection and longitudinal tracking of changes in public perceptions over time, especially in response to seismic events or preparedness campaigns. This dynamic feedback loop would empower authorities to refine their strategies and allocate resources more effectively.
In addition to policy impact, this research enriches academic discourse by bridging behavioral science and geoscience, fields that have traditionally operated in parallel silos. Through interdisciplinary collaboration, the study exemplifies how psychological constructs can enhance understanding of human-nature interactions and support more holistic disaster management frameworks that go beyond engineering and logistics.
While the tool’s initial validation shows promising psychometric properties, the authors acknowledge the need for ongoing refinement and larger-scale testing across diverse Iranian subpopulations, including rural and marginalized communities. Future research directions include longitudinal studies to assess whether changes in risk perception measured by the tool translate into actual preparedness behaviors and reduced casualties during earthquakes.
Furthermore, integrating this tool with geospatial risk maps and socio-economic data could provide a powerful multidimensional model to prioritize intervention areas and demographics. Such an integrative approach could transform earthquake risk management, enabling precise, psychologically-informed decision-making that accounts for both physical hazards and human behavioral tendencies.
This pioneering work arrives at a critical juncture, as urbanization and climate change amplify vulnerabilities worldwide. It challenges existing paradigms by positing that effective disaster mitigation hinges not only on technological advances but fundamentally on understanding and shaping human perceptions and responses to risk.
In conclusion, the development and psychometric evaluation of this earthquake risk perception tool mark a significant leap forward for disaster psychology and public safety in Iran and potentially beyond. By concentrating on the cognitive and emotional substrates that underpin preparedness behavior, this research opens new vistas for crafting impactful communication and intervention strategies that could save lives and reduce seismic destruction. The innovative application of the Extended Parallel Process Model to natural disaster risk perception underscores a paradigm shift towards integrating psychological insight into resilience-building efforts, heralding a new era in disaster risk science.
Subject of Research: Development and psychometric evaluation of an earthquake risk perception tool using the Extended Parallel Process Model in Iran.
Article Title: Development and psychometric evaluation of an earthquake risk perception tool in Iran: an application of the extended parallel process model.
Article References:
Jahangiry, L., Babaie, J., Sadr-Mir, F. et al. Development and psychometric evaluation of an earthquake risk perception tool in Iran: an application of the extended parallel process model. BMC Psychol 13, 1331 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40359-025-03672-2
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