In the realm of American collegiate sports, the spectacle of football often dominates the athletic calendar, capturing the attention of millions across the nation. While Division I football programs bask under national media spotlights, generating considerable revenue and intense fan engagement, the quieter, less-publicized tiers such as Division III harbor their own compelling narratives. A groundbreaking study set to appear in the 2025 edition of the Atlantic Economic Journal, penned by Natke, Falls, and Xiao, shifts the analytical lens to the long-term attendance patterns of Division III college football games. This research ventures “out of the spotlight,” exploring how attendance at these games evolves over time, revealing the nuances and latent dynamics often overshadowed by the commercialized spectacle of top-tier college football.
The study is particularly timely as collegiate sports undergo transformations driven by shifting demographics, evolving student interests, and broader societal changes. Division III institutions, which emphasize a balance between athletics, academics, and student life without offering athletic scholarships, present a unique setting for examining fan engagement. Unlike their Division I counterparts, Division III football programs typically operate with modest budgets, limited media exposure, and smaller stadium capacities. Yet, fan attendance remains critical for maintaining program vitality, supporting athletic departments, and fostering campus community cohesion.
Natke, Falls, and Xiao employ an innovative longitudinal approach, analyzing game attendance data spanning multiple decades to uncover persistent trends and episodic fluctuations. This long-run perspective is crucial since short-term attendance trends can be influenced by myriad transient factors such as team performance in a single season, weather conditions on game days, or local economic shocks. By extending the temporal horizon, the researchers identify enduring structural patterns and draw insights into how Division III football attendance correlates with broader institutional, demographic, and cultural shifts.
Their methodology centers on compiling attendance records from a diverse array of Division III institutions, incorporating variables that include institutional enrollment size, regional economic indicators, and historical rivalries. The researchers also control for variables such as stadium capacity constraints and scheduling conflicts with other major campus events. Through sophisticated econometric modeling, including fixed-effects regressions and time-series analysis, the study elucidates the key drivers of attendance behavior across different phases of a collegiate football season and in varying sociocultural contexts.
One of the salient findings challenges the presumption that Division III football attendance is inherently capricious or solely contingent on on-field success. While winning records do enhance attendance, there exists a robust baseline interest tied to institutional identity and alumni engagement. Attendance patterns reveal a “sticky” quality, where communities around Division III programs demonstrate enduring support that transcends athletic performance in any given year. This suggests a cultural embedding of football as a social ritual, reinforcing campus traditions and local pride.
Interestingly, the research uncovers that geographic and demographic factors significantly mediate attendance trends. Institutions situated in smaller towns tend to enjoy higher per capita game attendance relative to those in urban or suburban environments, highlighting football’s role as a focal social event in less populous locales. Moreover, shifts in regional population demographics, such as aging populations or decreasing proportions of traditional college-age residents, correspond with gradual declines in attendance, underscoring the intricate interplay between community composition and sports engagement.
Economic conditions also play a nuanced role. The analysis indicates that local economic downturns temporarily depress football attendance, but their impacts dissipate over time, reflecting the resilience of fan bases. Conversely, periods of local economic growth do not necessarily translate into sustained attendance surges, implying that disposable income availability alone is insufficient to drive long-term fan engagement. Such insights challenge simplistic assumptions about sports spectatorship as directly proportional to economic well-being.
Beyond raw attendance figures, the study examines how Division III football games function as community events that contribute to social capital formation. The tradition of tailgating, the communal rituals of game day, and the intergenerational transmission of fandom all appear integral to maintaining robust attendance. This social dimension resonates with sociological theories proposing that sports attendance fulfills needs for collective identity and social cohesion, particularly in campuses where diversity and inclusivity are actively pursued.
The authors also probe the impact of institutional policies and athletic department strategies on attendance dynamics. Investments in stadium facilities, marketing campaigns targeting students and alumni, and sponsorship of community outreach initiatives are positively correlated with attendance increases. This points to the potential efficacy of proactive engagement efforts tailored to the ethos and capacities of Division III programs, distinct from the high-budget approaches characteristic of larger schools.
Technological shifts, notably the rise of digital media platforms and live streaming, are explored in terms of their complex effects on in-person attendance. While one might expect digital access to displace physical attendance, the study finds a more ambivalent relationship. For some institutions, enhanced digital visibility augments interest and motivates fans to attend live games, whereas in other cases, readily available streams appear to substitute for presence, reducing stadium turnouts. Such findings invite nuanced strategies balancing digital outreach with incentives for live attendance.
The researchers also offer compelling prospective analyses by simulating future attendance scenarios under alternative assumptions about demographic change, institutional investment, and regional economic trajectories. These models suggest that without deliberate engagement interventions, many Division III programs may face gradual erosion in fan bases, threatening the viability of football as a campus unifier. Conversely, embracing innovative community engagement and leveraging alumni networks could reverse such trends and revitalize interest.
Moreover, the study situates these findings within the broader context of college athletics and American sports culture. As the governance of collegiate sports evolves amidst debates on athlete compensation, gender equity, and academic integrity, understanding attendance patterns in less-commercialized divisions illuminates the diverse ecosystem of intercollegiate athletics. Division III football, often overlooked, embodies a model that prioritizes amateurism and educational values, making attendance trends a bellwether for the health of this sporting ethos.
Importantly, the study’s detailed econometric approach underscores the value of rigorous quantitative methods in sports economics research. By methodically controlling for confounders and utilizing robust statistical techniques, Natke, Falls, and Xiao corroborate and expand theoretical frameworks about fan behavior, community impact, and the economics of sports attendance. Their work sets a new standard for empirical analysis in this domain.
In conclusion, the study “Out of the Spotlight: A Long-Run Approach to College American Football Attendance in Division III” offers an illuminating and comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted dynamics influencing attendance at Division III football games. It challenges stereotypes of lower-division football as lacking consistent fan support and demonstrates how cultural, economic, and institutional factors intricately shape attendance outcomes over time. For stakeholders—from university administrators to alumni and local communities—this research provides actionable insights to sustain and enhance the unique football traditions flourishing beyond the glare of major college sports.
As the landscape of college sports continues to evolve, recognizing and nurturing the subtle but enduring spirit of Division III football fandom will be critical. This study not only enriches academic discourse but also invites renewed appreciation for a tier of college sports where passion, community, and education harmoniously converge.
Subject of Research: College American Football Attendance in NCAA Division III
Article Title: Out of the Spotlight: A Long-Run Approach to College American Football Attendance in Division III
Article References:
Natke, P.A., Falls, G.A. & Xiao, L. Out of the Spotlight: A Long-Run Approach to College American Football Attendance in Division III. Atl Econ J (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-025-09830-6
Image Credits: AI Generated
