A novel and comprehensive investigation conducted by the ifo Institute in collaboration with Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU) offers critical insights into the migratory preferences of Ukrainian refugees across Europe. Their research challenges prevalent assumptions about refugee decision-making, emphasizing the economic dimensions over social welfare incentives. Drawing on data from a robust survey involving over 3,300 Ukrainian refugees, this study elucidates nuanced patterns underlying destination choices, with profound implications for policymaking and integration strategies within host nations.
Central to the research is a striking revelation: Ukrainian refugees prioritize enhanced labor market prospects, including access to employment commensurate with their qualifications and competitive wages, much more strongly than social assistance programs such as welfare or child benefits. According to Panu Poutvaara, Director of the ifo Center for Migration and Development Economics and professor at LMU’s Faculty of Economics, wage differentials exert a nearly fourfold influence compared to disparities in social benefits when refugees decide on their destination country. This insight underscores a fundamental economic calculus underpinning displacement decisions, signaling that monetary incentives linked directly to employment opportunities eclipse traditional social welfare enticements.
The methodology of the study involved presenting respondents with hypothetical scenarios wherein they were required to choose between two countries, each characterized by varying attributes like job availability or wage levels. The findings were unequivocal: the promise of better employment opportunities increased the likelihood of choosing a country by 15 percentage points. Simultaneously, an average wage increase of 500 euros (approximately 570 USD) corresponded to a 9 percentage point rise in preference. These figures are particularly compelling considering that even refugees currently unemployed demonstrated a clear intent to engage in the labor market at the earliest opportunity, signaling aspirations toward economic self-sufficiency rather than dependence on social benefits.
Family and social networks emerged as significant, albeit secondary, determinants of migration choices, with the presence of friends or relatives in a potential host country increasing selection probability by 8.5 percentage points relative to mere geographic proximity to Ukraine. However, intriguingly, refugees expressing a long-term intent to resettle outside their homeland displayed a preference for countries offering superior economic conditions over those merely close to family and friends. This nuance highlights an evolution in migration logic, whereby economic utility can outweigh traditional familial or cultural ties, reshaping the geography of refugee settlement in Europe.
These findings challenge ongoing political debates centered around reforming social welfare policies to manage refugee inflows. Yvonne Giesing, Deputy Director of the ifo Center for Migration and Development Economics, draws attention to this misalignment, noting that reductions in social benefits intended to deter arrivals are unlikely to be effective. Instead, the study advocates for policies facilitating easier access to meaningful employment and fair wages as more decisive factors in attracting and integrating refugees. The implication is clear: welfare cuts might not only fail to curb migration but could hamper long-term integration prospects.
From a theoretical perspective, the study contributes significantly to migration economics literature by empirically validating hypotheses about economic incentives outweighing social policies in migrant decision-making processes. It dovetails with labor market theories that view migration as an investment in human capital where individuals seek to maximize expected returns based on anticipated wages and professional opportunities. This refined understanding equips policymakers and scholars with a more precise framework for designing interventions that balance humanitarian concerns with economic pragmatism.
Technically, the survey methodology adhered to rigorous standards ensuring representativeness and reliability. The sample size exceeding 3,300 respondents allows for statistically significant conclusions, while the hypothetical choice modeling—akin to discrete choice experiments—provides a controlled setting to isolate the effects of individual country attributes on migration preferences. This approach enhances internal validity by minimizing confounding influences that typically plague observational studies of refugee behavior.
Moreover, this research introduces novel quantitative metrics to evaluate the weightage of various determinants, such as wage differentials, job availability, and social network presence, allowing for direct intercomparison. By quantifying that wage effects are approximately four times more influential than social benefits, the study offers actionable data for tailoring economic integration programs. It also signals to destination countries the importance of labor market inclusivity and credential recognition to leverage the skills and qualifications refugees bring.
Beyond immediate policy implications, the study touches upon broader questions regarding refugee agency and integration trajectories. The demonstrated preference for employment opportunities suggests a proactive orientation among refugees toward rebuilding livelihoods, countering narratives portraying refugees principally as beneficiaries of public support. This attitudinal insight could foster a paradigm shift in societal and governmental attitudes, promoting empowerment over paternalism.
Geopolitically, the observed preference for more economically attractive countries, sometimes at greater distances and irrespective of proximity to friends or relatives, reflects the globalizing tendencies of forced migration. Refugees are not solely constrained by immediate neighbors but assess opportunity landscapes across the continent, emphasizing the need for coordinated international labor and migration policies within Europe.
The study also raises questions about the potential long-term demographic and economic impacts on host countries. Nations offering superior employment conditions could experience sustained influxes of skilled labor, enhancing economic dynamism and cultural diversity. Conversely, neglecting these dimensions risks overburdening social welfare systems without harnessing refugees’ potential human capital, thereby missing integrative economic opportunities.
In sum, this pivotal research redefines our understanding of Ukrainian refugee mobility by foregrounding labor market access and wage considerations as paramount drivers. It underscores the primacy of economic integration as a foundation for successful refugee settlement and presents a compelling case for evidence-based migration policies that move beyond simplistic welfare-centric frameworks. With the ongoing humanitarian crisis unfolding across Europe, such insights are urgently needed to inform responsive, humane, and economically sound strategies.
The full study, soon to be published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, stands as a critical contribution to migration scholarship. Its findings resonate beyond the immediate context of Ukrainian displacement, offering transferable lessons for refugee policy worldwide. As European countries navigate the complexities of refugee reception amidst geopolitical tensions, the message is clear: unlocking employment pathways holds the key to sustainable integration and mutual prosperity.
Subject of Research: People
Article Title: Refugees from Ukraine value job opportunities over welfare
News Publication Date: 4-Aug-2025
References: ifo Institute, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München survey data; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Keywords: Ukrainian refugees, migration economics, labor market integration, wage differentials, social benefits, refugee policy, forced migration, employment opportunities, migration decision-making
