Since 2017, Ecuador has witnessed a dramatic and unsettling political reversal that dismantled a decade of transformative governance known as the Citizens’ Revolution. This movement, which began in 2007 under President Rafael Correa, sought to establish state-led development and expand social and democratic rights, positioning Ecuador as a regional exemplar in progressive governance. However, the ascendancy of Lenín Moreno in 2017 marked a sharp departure from this trajectory, catalyzing a systematic rollback firmly anchored in elite political and economic dominance reminiscent of pre-2007 patterns. Moreno’s governance, initially shrouded in continuity rhetoric, ultimately revealed itself to be a calculated overthrow of his predecessor’s legacy, sparking profound institutional and societal upheaval.
Moreno’s presidency is best characterized by the term descorreización, denoting the deliberate and comprehensive dismantling of Correa-era policies, institutions, and collective memory. What was framed as a necessary corrective to alleged institutional decay rapidly unfolded as a reversion to neoliberal austerity and fragile democracy. Moreno’s overt embracement of the financial elite—and his inflammatory remark that he “began to hate” those who supported him electorally—symbolizes the betrayal that consolidated his hold on power through unconventional alliances. This pivot ironically validated the economic agenda of his narrow 2017 electoral rival, Guillermo Lasso, despite Moreno’s initial campaign promises to uphold the Citizens’ Revolution.
Integral to the reversal was Moreno’s re-engagement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a stark shift from Correa’s decade-long distancing from international financial institutions. This alliance paved the way for austerity policies that included the elimination of fuel subsidies, an act that triggered a doubling of diesel prices and profound ripple effects on Ecuador’s production costs and socio-economic fabric. The political cost of this policy was immediate and intense: October 2019 saw an unprecedented Indigenous-led strike that utterly destabilized the government. The state’s harsh security response, noted by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, highlighted widespread violations and a stark erosion of civic freedoms under the guise of public order.
The political rupture deepened with the incarceration of Vice President Jorge Glas, a figure who had served under both Correa and Moreno and openly opposed Moreno’s ideological course change. Glas’s conviction in the controversial Odebrecht bribery scandal—built largely on the testimonies of compromised witnesses—revealed the instrumentalization of judicial processes in political persecution. This event underscored a broader strategy: the delegitimization and judicial targeting of the Citizens’ Revolution’s leadership, culminating in the obstruction of efforts to create a new party associated with their movement.
Moreno further destabilized Ecuador’s democratic architecture through legally dubious maneuvers such as convening a national referendum without constitutional court authorization. Central state bodies were purged and restructured under the newly empowered Council for Citizen Participation and Social Control (CPCCS), which declared itself above constitutional norms. The CPCCS appointed Diana Salazar as Attorney General despite her poor qualifications, facilitating a series of judicial attacks widely criticized as lawfare. Salazar’s methods culminated in Rafael Correa’s conviction on nebulous charges like “psychic influence,” an unprecedented legal innovation lacking evidentiary basis and rejected by international policing agencies such as Interpol.
More alarming revelations emerged regarding Salazar’s coordination with the U.S. government, suggesting external influence in Ecuador’s domestic legal affairs. Declassified communications unveiled the explicit objective of “getting RC’s head,” referring to Correa, demonstrating how international geopolitical interests intersected with Ecuadorian judicial proceedings. This confluence of external pressures and internal judicial overreach led to Belgium granting Correa political asylum, formally acknowledging his persecution. Concurrently, the rapid dismantling of key democratic institutions, including the Judicial Council and the Constitutional Court, signified Ecuador’s precarious slide away from rule-of-law norms and institutional checks.
Underneath the surface of state restructuring, Moreno’s administration also dismembered the organizational capacity of Ecuador’s security and justice apparatus by eliminating ministries responsible for security coordination and prison management. These functions were fragmented within ministries inadequately equipped for such broad mandates. The consequences were dire; state capacity eroded, public security deteriorated, and citizens faced the consequences of institutional neglect and systemic precarity.
Moreno’s tenure ended in a political quagmire with an overwhelming public disapproval rating of 85%, underscored by a series of corruption scandals that further debilitated Ecuador’s governance amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Issues ranged from political interference in hospital administration to privileged vaccine access for elites, betraying the state’s social obligations at a critical moment. These controversies amplified social dysfunction and further marginalized vulnerable populations suffering under austerity and health crises.
Moreno’s political trajectory is a textbook study in betrayal and subterfuge—elected under the guise of continuity, only to become the architect of the Citizens’ Revolution’s disintegration. This political Trojan Horse manoeuver allowed Moreno to maintain electoral legitimacy among sections of the populace while implementing policies condemned at the ballot box. His strategy deftly secured elite acquiescence while channeling popular blame onto his own for unpopular austerity measures. This multifaceted political calculus effected an erasure of the Citizens’ Revolution’s legal political identity and sullied its public standing, embedding the descorreización as an institutionalized apparatus for dismantling progressive governance.
The presidency of Guillermo Lasso, beginning in 2021, largely perpetuated the trajectory forged by Moreno. Despite comparatively stable state budgets averaging near one-third of GDP, Lasso’s administration presided over a sharp decline in public services, soaring inequality, infrastructure decay, and a staggering 650% increase in homicide rates. His period saw an electricity crisis and a dramatic fall in citizen government approval, marking an era of accelerated de-democratization and institutional weakening. Political persecution intensified against Citizens’ Revolution figures even as the state’s prisons became lenient towards notorious criminal leaders, exposing the fragility of law enforcement and security mechanisms.
Lasso’s inability to complete his term culminated in a constitutional crisis: facing impeachment over his purported involvement in closing the “Trojan Lion” investigation into government links with organized crime, he preemptively dissolved the National Assembly through the constitutional provision of muerte cruzada. This move triggered early elections but also underscored the severity of corruption and organized crime’s entanglement with Ecuadorian governance. The ensuing political chaos was compounded by threats to the once-vibrant independent press, epitomized by the forced exile of journalists exposing these linkages amidst escalating death threats.
The 2023 early presidential race was marred by the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, a candidate allied with Lasso who had exposed corruption ties within the president’s inner circle. The state’s dubious handling of the investigation, including the suspicious deaths of suspects in custody and manipulative tactics against Villavicencio’s family, cast a pall over Ecuador’s justice system. Following these events, support for the Citizens’ Revolution candidate waned, paving the way for the emergence of Daniel Noboa, scion of the country’s dominant banana-exporting Noboa family.
Daniel Noboa’s ascent carries complex implications. His family’s firm holds the largest state debt, yet as president, Noboa has implemented unpopular fiscal policies such as increased value-added taxes and has enacted measures benefiting foreign militaries, notably granting immunity to U.S. forces operating on Ecuadorian soil. His administration has also cracked down on political opposition, forcibly entering the Mexican embassy to target dissenters, and has overseen the most severe energy crisis in decades alongside unprecedented waves of violence. Ecuador’s transformation into Latin America’s deadliest nation reflects decades of political malfeasance, criminal infiltration, and institutional decay consolidated during and after the Citizens’ Revolution.
Ecuador’s contemporary political narrative exposes the fragility of democratic gains amid elite entrenchment, judicial manipulation, and external geopolitical interventions. The dismantling of progressive reforms has not only erased institutional advances but has entrenched cycles of violence, corruption, and social fragmentation. The story of the Citizens’ Revolution, its ascendancy, abrupt reversal, and aftermath serves as a cautionary tale on the vulnerabilities of transformative governance in the face of entrenched power and international influence. Ecuador’s path forward remains uncertain, shadowed by the pervasive legacies of its turbulent political upheavals and the persistent challenge of restoring democratic resilience.
Subject of Research: The political history and transformation of Ecuador from the Citizens’ Revolution through the subsequent administrations of Lenín Moreno, Guillermo Lasso, and Daniel Noboa, focusing on institutional dismantling, political persecution, economic policy reversals, and impacts on democracy and social stability.
Article Title: The Citizens’ Revolution in Ecuador: A comparative history of political ideas, processes, and outcomes.
Article References:
Restrepo Echavarría, R., Oliván López, F. The Citizens’ Revolution in Ecuador: A comparative history of political ideas, processes, and outcomes. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 12, 1696 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05940-3
Image Credits: AI Generated
