Barcelona Supercomputer Breaks New Ground in Real-Time Earthquake Simulation
In a pioneering advance for disaster response and computational science, the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS) is set to deploy MareNostrum 5, Europe’s cutting-edge supercomputer, to simulate earthquakes in real time during Mexico’s National Earthquake Drill on September 19, 2025. This milestone represents the first time a European supercomputer will execute urgent computing protocols under authentic conditions to model the immediate effects of major seismic events. The initiative aims to revolutionize emergency management by providing high-resolution, physics-based earthquake intensity maps within minutes of an event, drastically improving rescue coordination and infrastructure impact assessment.
Leveraging direct collaboration with Mexico’s National Seismological Service (SSN), BSC scientists will input real seismic parameters such as hypocenter coordinates and earthquake magnitude obtained from live seismic alerts. These data fuel sophisticated computational models that generate expansive maps highlighting the magnitude and spatial distribution of ground shaking. Unlike conventional seismic alert systems that offer rapid but generalized warnings, this approach employs physics-driven simulations to yield granular, location-specific predictions about damage likelihood. The ability to pinpoint vulnerable regions shortly after an earthquake promises transformative benefits for civil protection teams, enabling faster deployment and more targeted rescue operations.
Marisol Monterrubio Velasco, the Mexican researcher leading the initiative at BSC, emphasizes the critical role this experiment plays in validating urgent computing workflows developed at the center. “Testing these protocols in real conditions establishes their viability for operational use,” Monterrubio explains. “Our work could become instrumental in delivering rapid scientific guidance during crises, where every minute can save lives.” This simulation exercise, coordinated by the Mexican government alongside UNAM’s Institute of Geophysics and the SSN, recreates a scenario reminiscent of the catastrophic 1985 Michoacán earthquake, an 8.1 magnitude event that caused massive devastation, including thousands of fatalities and widespread homelessness.
As part of an integrated national preparedness strategy, Mexico will also activate its mobile alert system during the drill, simultaneously broadcasting emergency messages to over 80 million phones nationwide. Audible alarms will sound prompting residents to evacuate buildings and move to designated safe zones, mirroring actual emergency protocols. This concerted simulation of alerts and scientific modeling marks a considerable leap forward in harmonizing technological advances with public safety infrastructure in earthquake-prone regions.
The MareNostrum 5 supercomputer’s urgent computing capacity forms the backbone of this innovative exercise. Researchers will gain priority access to 55 GPU nodes dedicated exclusively to running physics-based ground-shaking models across a colossal area measuring 700 km by 400 km, extending 150 km deep beneath the Earth’s crust. This resolution of 2 km, unparalleled in operational seismic simulations, covers approximately half of Mexico’s landmass. Such an allocation of resources exemplifies a novel paradigm in supercomputing: providing rapid-response computational power in the face of imminent natural disasters, respecting the time-critical nature of such events.
Urgent computing relies on predefined priority schemes that allow the immediate interruption of routine processes to execute emergency simulations without delay or human intervention. Sergi Girona, Director of Operations and CIO at BSC, describes urgent computing as a framework in which “programs, datasets, and operational procedures undergo rigorous validation beforehand to guarantee seamless, immediate run-time execution in critical scenarios.” This ensures that computational resources are dynamically reallocated to simulate emerging natural disasters, a capability rarely offered by traditional high-performance computing centers.
The broader implications of integrating such semi-automated computational workflows in disaster response are profound. This capability signals a paradigm shift toward real-time integration of supercomputing outputs into emergency management systems. By simulating the physical processes of earthquakes and other extreme events such as tsunamis, hurricanes, and volcanic eruptions with unprecedented fidelity, decision-makers can access scientifically grounded forecasts that inform evacuation orders, infrastructure inspection, and resource allocation promptly after an event.
BSC’s expertise in this area is grounded in multiple European and national projects focused on natural hazards and urgent computing, including ChEESE, eFlows4HPC, and DT-GEO. These initiatives have produced algorithmic and infrastructural tools that underpin the sophisticated workflows tested during this Mexican earthquake simulation. The ability to harness these complex numerical methods operationally demonstrates the maturation of urgent computing as an indispensable tool for societal resilience against natural disasters.
Furthermore, the center collaborates closely with Spain’s Military Emergency Unit (UME), combining supercomputing power and artificial intelligence to generate comprehensive risk scenario simulations. This partnership aims to build a digital twin of emergency situations, incorporating dynamic simulations of seismic events alongside support system development to enhance strategic response capabilities. On the continental scale, BSC also plays a crucial role in the European Commission’s Destination Earth initiative, which seeks to create digital replicas of Earth’s systems to anticipate and mitigate the effects of climate-induced extreme weather and geophysical phenomena.
The integration of real-time, physics-based earthquake modeling within national emergency drills showcases the potential of combining computational power with operational protocols for rapid disaster assessment. As climate change and urbanization increase vulnerabilities worldwide, such cutting-edge simulations offer a promising pathway to safeguard populations and infrastructure. If successful in Mexico, the model may catalyze similar deployments globally, positioning supercomputing at the vanguard of disaster preparedness and response.
With this ambitious test, the Barcelona Supercomputing Center redefines the capabilities of computational science to address some of humanity’s most pressing challenges. The MareNostrum 5 urgent computing protocol sets a precedent for on-demand, high-resolution natural hazard simulations, ensuring that when disaster strikes, science and technology will be ready to guide the first crucial moments of protection and recovery.
Subject of Research: Not applicable
Article Title: Barcelona Supercomputer Breaks New Ground in Real-Time Earthquake Simulation
News Publication Date: 17 September 2025
Image Credits: Credit: CASE / BSC – CNS
Keywords: Earthquake forecasting, Natural disasters, Computational physics, Computer modeling
