Rising Seas and Warming Waters Threaten Marine Mollusks Across Western Atlantic: New Study Predicts Dramatic Range Losses Amid Climate Change
The accelerating pace of climate change poses a grave threat to the world’s oceans, with significant implications for marine biodiversity and ecosystem stability. Among the most vulnerable marine creatures are mollusks—a diverse group including clams, oysters, and snails—that perform critical ecological functions along coastal environments. Recent research presented at the Geological Society of America’s Connects 2025 conference reveals alarming projections for mollusk populations along the western Atlantic coast of North America. Sophisticated environmental niche modeling forecasts that over 60% of the current ranges of these species could be lost by mid-century due to warming waters, increased ocean acidification, and altered current dynamics.
This groundbreaking work was led by Dr. Claudia Nuñez-Penichet, a postdoctoral researcher affiliated with Virginia Tech’s Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation. Her team’s approach integrates robust ecological niche models with functional trait analyses to determine whether specific biological traits might offer resilience against the mounting environmental pressures brought about by climate change. Contrary to initial hypotheses, the findings suggest that species-specific characteristics such as shell morphology or feeding strategies do not confer a significant survival advantage. Instead, the study highlights a widespread vulnerability across species, particularly under scenarios involving high greenhouse gas emissions.
Mollusks are foundational components of coastal marine ecosystems. Filter-feeding species such as oysters and clams play vital roles in regulating water quality by removing particulate matter and controlling the prevalence of harmful algal blooms. Beyond their filtration capacity, their calcareous shells contribute to substrate stability, reducing erosion and creating complex habitats that support diverse biological communities. Oyster reefs, for example, offer refuge and feeding grounds to numerous fish and invertebrates. Therefore, a reduction in mollusk populations would cascade throughout the trophic web, disrupting ecosystem services and impacting both ecological and economic systems.
The modeling framework developed by Nuñez-Penichet and collaborators combines current abiotic parameters—namely, surface temperature, pH levels indicative of acidity, and current velocity within mollusk habitats—with predictive data reflecting different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. By identifying environmental “niches” that support mollusks today and projecting where analogous conditions will exist in mid- to late-century, the model forecasts shifts in species distributions. This process inherently accounts for the multifaceted influences of oceanographic and climatic variables but does not encompass biotic interactions, species migration capabilities, or other complex factors like sea-level rise, which may modulate real-world outcomes.
One striking aspect of the study is the insensitivity of mollusk vulnerability to functional traits. Despite examining species with varying adaptations, no categories demonstrably resisted or mitigated range contractions. This suggests that the environmental thresholds being crossed—such as thermal maxima, acidification limits, or hydrodynamic constraints—overwhelm any physiological or ecological plasticity mollusks may possess. Consequently, conservation strategies cannot rely solely on protecting species with presumed resilient traits but must consider broad, ecosystem-level interventions to enhance survival prospects.
Nuñez-Penichet underscores that the model pinpoints geographic hotspots where extinction risk is most acute, information crucial for directing conservation resources strategically. Coastal management agencies can leverage these predictive maps to prioritize monitoring and habitat protection in vulnerable regions. Similarly, restoration projects could focus on areas where environmental conditions are stable or forecasted to remain suitable, thereby maximizing the survival prospects for these keystone species in a rapidly changing environment.
Expanding the scope of the research, the team plans to incorporate data from over 200 mollusk species, vastly improving the ecological breadth and resolution of their assessments. Integrating fossil records and paleontological evidence may further elucidate how historical climate fluctuations influenced mollusk evolution and distribution patterns. This paleoecological perspective could refine models by revealing adaptive responses and extinction thresholds over geological timescales, enhancing predictions about resilience or vulnerability in the face of ongoing climatic shifts.
Despite the dire outlook painted by their models, Nuñez-Penichet remains cautiously optimistic, emphasizing the power of human intervention. The scenarios with more severe mollusk range contractions correspond to “business-as-usual” emissions trajectories, whereas moderate emission reduction pathways demonstrate less pronounced losses, even extending recovery timelines toward 2100. This suggests that concerted global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, mitigate ocean acidification, and curb warming could materially improve outcomes for marine mollusk communities and the ecosystems relying on them.
The study also calls attention to the complex interplay of multiple stressors, such as rising temperatures exacerbating acidification effects or shifts in ocean circulation patterns influencing larval dispersal and recruitment success. These factors compound the pressures on mollusk populations, illustrating the need for integrative approaches in marine conservation that consider synergistic environmental changes rather than isolated parameters.
Given the essential ecosystem services mollusks provide—notably in maintaining water quality, supporting fisheries, and stabilizing sediment—understanding their responses to climate stressors transcends academic interest, directly informing socioeconomic well-being in coastal communities. Declines in mollusk abundance and diversity threaten food security, livelihoods, and biodiversity, creating ripple effects through marine food webs and human economies alike.
The research presented not only advances scientific understanding of marine species’ climate vulnerability but also underscores the urgency of implementing adaptive management policies. These findings advocate for enhanced monitoring networks, the establishment of marine protected areas targeting critical habitats, and fostering public awareness of the environmental and economic importance of mollusk species. Empowering policymakers with predictive models and actionable data can galvanize targeted mitigation initiatives that promote resilience in the face of climatic uncertainty.
In conclusion, the integration of ecological niche modeling with analyses of functional traits reveals a sobering narrative for western Atlantic mollusk species confronting a rapidly warming and acidifying ocean. Their projected dramatic range reductions highlight the narrow environmental window these organisms currently occupy and the profound consequences that climate change-driven habitat alteration will impose. Nevertheless, by illuminating thresholds and vulnerable zones, this research equips conservationists and decision-makers with vital tools to safeguard mollusk diversity and by extension, the health and stability of coastal marine ecosystems worldwide.
Subject of Research: Vulnerability of marine mollusk species to climate change through ecological niche modeling and functional trait analyses
Article Title: Integrating Functional Traits and Ecological Niche Modeling to Assess the Vulnerability of Mollusk Species to Climate Change
News Publication Date: 2025
Web References:
- https://gsameetings.secure-platform.com/connects25/solicitations/103002/sessiongallery/schedule/items/95230/application/10665
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/abs/2025AM-10665
Keywords:
Geology, Physical geology, Marine geology, Oceanography, Mollusks, Climate change, Ecological niche modeling, Ocean acidification, Biodiversity loss, Marine ecosystems, Functional traits, Conservation
