Pilgrimage has been a defining feature of human spirituality, crossing geographical, cultural, and religious boundaries throughout history. From the well-trodden paths of the Camino de Santiago, stretching across southern Europe to the cathedral in Santiago de Compostela, to the massive congregations at the Hindu Kumbh Mela on the banks of the Ganges River, pilgrimages have consistently drawn millions in acts of devotion and communal observance. Yet, a fundamental question persists among anthropologists and social scientists: how do pilgrimage sites emerge and persist in the cultural fabric of societies, often originating around seemingly singular, serendipitous events? A cutting-edge study from the University of California, Davis offers new theoretical insights into the mechanisms that drive the creation and establishment of pilgrimage destinations through a novel application of game theory, specifically the assurance game or stag hunt model.
Pilgrimages are not merely solitary spiritual journeys; rather, their profound nature lies in collective participation. The assurance game conceptualizes this by framing pilgrimage as a cooperative endeavor dependent on a critical mass of participants to be meaningful and enduring. This model distinguishes between actions achievable individually, like hunting a hare, and those requiring coordination among multiple participants — symbolically hunting a stag — where the success is contingent on collective cooperation. The researchers propose that pilgrimages straddle this dynamic, needing social coordination for their ritualistic and religious significance to crystallize in communal practice.
Building on this conceptual foundation, the UC Davis team adapted the assurance game to incorporate three cardinal variables influencing the adoption and longevity of pilgrimage rituals. These variables are prior beliefs or expectations regarding the potential benefits of participation, economic uncertainty faced by individuals within the community, and the demographic scale of social groups engaged in the pilgrimage. By embedding these factors into a computational model, the researchers performed simulations to predict the emergence threshold at which a newly initiated pilgrimage transitions from anecdotal practice to institutionalized tradition.
A particularly novel aspect of this model lies in its accounting for economic uncertainty. In environments marked by unpredictability in livelihoods or fortunes, individuals are more prone to attribute fortunate occurrences to spiritual intercessions linked with pilgrimage sites. For example, a miner striking gold after praying at a new religious site provides a tangible, albeit stochastic, positive outcome that reinforces belief in the site’s efficacy. As more members witness or believe in such outcomes, the pilgrimage accrues legitimacy and social appeal, increasing participation in subsequent cycles. This cascade effect embodies the assurance game’s coordination principle—without a sufficient participant base, the ritual lacks social validation and thus risks extinction, but once a critical mass is engaged, its perpetuation becomes self-reinforcing.
This theoretical framework is grounded empirically through ongoing ethnographic studies at a burgeoning pilgrimage destination in the Peruvian Altiplano: Nuestro Señor de Pucara. Situated north of Lake Titicaca at the foothills of a modest mountain range, this sanctuary has drawn thousands annually since 2014, when the image of Jesus was reportedly miraculously manifested on a rock face adjacent to indigenous iconography such as a toad and an eagle. The site’s pilgrim offerings range from flowers and candles to bottles of champagne, emblematic of Andean syncretic traditions.
The folkloric narrative accompanying Nuestro Señor de Pucara serves as an archetypal example validating the model’s central thesis. A miner’s experience—sighting the miraculous image, praying devoutly, and subsequently striking gold in the nearby La Rinconada mine—created the initial positive feedback loop inspiring communal celebration and pilgrimage. This example intricately ties economic uncertainty to the genesis of ritual: the miner’s financial success, triggered amid precarious economic conditions, is perceived as divine favor, catalyzing collective ritual formation.
As the site gains momentum, researchers are refining their inquiries beyond the structural and into the cognitive realm of pilgrims’ motivations. Early data point to psychological drivers aligned with risk compensation theories and social reinforcement dynamics: pilgrims seek spiritual assurance as a coping mechanism in the face of uncertainty, while social proof from communal participation solidifies faith in the pilgrimage’s power. Such findings lend empirical substance to the computational model, highlighting how individual-level decisions aggregate to cultural level phenomena.
Intriguingly, this research also offers broader implications for understanding the persistence and evolution of collective rituals worldwide. By identifying how conditions of uncertainty amplify the perceived “return on investment” for engaging in pilgrimage, the model elucidates why such practices often emerge or intensify during times of social, political, or economic flux. The interplay of coordination and belief propagation underscores the social fabric’s complexity in maintaining religious traditions and offers a replicable framework applicable beyond pilgrimage phenomena to other institutionalized collective behaviors.
Moreover, the study’s approach bridges disciplinary divides by demonstrating how mathematical modeling can enrich anthropological discourse. By formalizing assumptions about human behavior in an assurance game setting and validating them via ethnographic context, it paves the way for computational social science to better predict when and how new communal rituals may arise, thereby informing cultural preservation efforts and guiding policymakers sensitive to the dynamics of tradition and innovation.
This research—published in the Royal Society Open Science journal—also engenders new questions on the role of interdisciplinary collaboration in unraveling human cultural complexity. The synthesis of anthropology, game theory, and computational modeling exemplifies the innovative methodologies shaping contemporary social sciences. It invites further investigation into psychological mechanisms underpinning belief formation and the social structures facilitating cultural transmission.
The implications of this study resonate beyond the academic realm, potentially informing religious organizations, cultural heritage agencies, and even tourism stakeholders. Understanding the levers that establish pilgrimage sites could help in managing and supporting sustainable cultural tourism, fostering community engagement, and preserving intangible cultural heritage. Additionally, it illuminates the subtle feedback loops whereby faith, economy, and social interaction converge to maintain and evolve spiritual practices.
As scholars continue to dissect the intricate dance between individual cognition and collective ritual, the emergence of pilgrimage sites like Nuestro Señor de Pucara presents a living laboratory. Here, theoretical propositions meet empirical reality, enriching the narrative of how human beings, navigating uncertainty, find meaning through shared journeys and sacred destinations.
Subject of Research: People
Article Title: [Not specified]
News Publication Date: October 1, 2025
Web References: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.250077
References: Royal Society Open Science, 10-Sep-2025, DOI: 10.1098/rsos.250077
Image Credits: Cristina Moya, UC Davis
Keywords: Anthropology, Social Sciences
