New Model Captures the Deadly Velocity Pulses That Shake Cities Near Faults

When a large earthquake ruptures directly toward a city, the ground does not simply shake harder — it shakes differently. Seismologists have long recognized that stations close to a fault can record abrupt, high-amplitude swings in ground velocity, known as velocity pulses, which arrive as a single dominant cycle or a short train of cycles. These pulses concentrate seismic energy into a narrow window of time and a narrow band of frequencies, and they are notorious for inflicting disproportionate damage on mid-rise and long-period structures such as bridges, tall buildings, and tunnels. A new study published in the Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering presents an empirical pulse model that predicts the characteristics of these near-fault pulses from three fundamental quantities: earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance, and site conditions expressed through the average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 meters of soil, commonly abbreviated as Vs30.

The research, led by Guan Chen of the Earth Observatory of Singapore and the National University of Singapore, together with Siau Chen Chian, Michael Beer, and Shengji Wei, addresses a persistent gap in seismic hazard analysis. Engineers can already estimate how strong ground shaking will be at a given distance from an earthquake of a certain size using ground-motion prediction equations. What has been harder to quantify is the impulsive character of near-fault motion — how long the dominant pulse lasts, how large its velocity amplitude is, and how these quantities vary with the seismological setting. The new work links pulse parameters directly to magnitude, distance, and site stiffness, giving hazard analysts a physically grounded way to generate realistic near-fault ground motions for any scenario of interest.

The first technical challenge the team tackled was identification. Not every record close to a fault contains a clear pulse, and distinguishing pulse-like from non-pulse-like ground motions has traditionally relied on wavelet-based classification methods, most famously the approach introduced by Jack Baker in 2007. Many existing identification procedures, however, tend to extract a single type of pulse from a record, which can miss the richer structure of real near-fault motions. Records from large continental earthquakes frequently contain multiple pulses, arising from forward-directivity effects as the rupture front races toward the site, from fling-step associated with permanent tectonic deformation, or from constructive interference of seismic waves with basin geometry. A method that captures only one pulse type risks underrepresenting the destructive potential of the motion.

To overcome this limitation, the researchers developed a novel extraction procedure that integrates a parametric pulse model with the generalized continuous wavelet transform, or GCWT. The parametric model provides a mathematical description of the pulse shape, while the wavelet transform scans the velocity time series across scales and times to locate the energy concentration that corresponds to the pulse. By combining the two, the procedure can capture various types of pulses within a single record, preserving both the diversity and the accuracy of the extracted signals. The authors report that the pulses extracted by their method effectively match the pulse characteristics visible in the original records, a critical validation step before any statistical modeling can proceed.

Armed with this identification tool, the team mined the PEER NGA-West2 database, one of the largest curated collections of strong-motion recordings from shallow crustal earthquakes worldwide. Out of 21,222 records examined, 815 were identified as pulse-like ground motions. This carefully classified dataset forms the empirical backbone of the study. Each pulse-like record was decomposed into its pulse component and a residual component, and the parameters describing the pulse — including its period, amplitude, and the number of significant cycles — were tabulated alongside the corresponding earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance, and Vs30 for each station.

The second major contribution is a set of empirical regression models that predict the pulse parameters from these three explanatory variables. The functional form of the models was developed with attention to the underlying physics: larger earthquakes produce longer rupture durations and hence longer pulse periods, pulses attenuate with distance as seismic energy spreads and is absorbed, and soft soil sites can amplify and lengthen the dominant velocity cycles relative to stiff rock. Model uncertainty was quantified through residual analysis, following the random-effects regression framework that has become standard in ground-motion modeling since the work of Abrahamson and Youngs in 1992. The proposed models were then validated against existing pulse models and against independent datasets not used in the calibration, providing confidence that the predictions generalize beyond the fitting sample.

A particularly valuable practical outcome of the study is a workflow for synthesizing near-fault broadband ground motions. The approach combines the empirical pulse model with a stochastic representation of the residual component — the high-frequency, incoherent part of the motion that remains after the coherent pulse is removed. Because the pulse and the residual are treated separately, the resulting artificial ground motions retain the distinctive impulsive features that govern structural response while simultaneously matching the spectral velocity and spectral acceleration of benchmark recordings across a broad frequency range. This two-component strategy echoes the spectral representation method in stochastic process simulation and offers a computationally efficient alternative to full physics-based rupture simulations, which remain expensive for routine hazard applications.

The implications for earthquake engineering are substantial. Previous research has demonstrated that near-fault pulses impose large deformation demands on flexible structures: moment-resisting frames subjected to pulse-like records accumulate damage differently than those subjected to ordinary shaking, and offshore wind turbines, tunnels, and seismically isolated buildings all show heightened vulnerability when the impulsive content of the motion is ignored. By providing pulse parameters conditioned on magnitude, distance, and site class, the new model allows analysts to construct scenario-consistent suites of near-fault motions without waiting for the next large earthquake to supply fresh recordings. The authors also note that the framework was informed by recent events, including the 2023 moment magnitude 7.8 Kahramanmaras earthquake in Turkey, whose near-fault recordings have become an important test case for pulse identification and simulation methods.

Accessibility is another notable feature of the work. The processed dataset, together with MATLAB code for identifying the optimal pulse in near-fault ground motions and for generating the empirical pulse model, has been released publicly through Zenodo, while the raw waveforms remain freely downloadable from the PEER NGA-West2 database. This open approach lowers the barrier for practicing engineers and researchers in seismically active regions to incorporate directivity and fling effects into their hazard and risk calculations. The study also acknowledges insightful discussions with Professor Jack W. Baker of Stanford University regarding pulse types and the functional form of the model, and it was supported by the Ministry of Education, Singapore, under the InVEST program for integrating volcano and earthquake science and technology.

For cities that sit directly above or beside active faults — from Los Angeles and Wellington to Istanbul and Kathmandu — the difference between ordinary shaking and a coherent velocity pulse can be the difference between repairable damage and collapse. By transforming decades of strong-motion recordings into a compact, predictive, and openly available model, this research moves the field closer to hazard assessments that reflect not just how hard the ground will shake, but how it will shake. As computational tools for seismic risk analysis grow more sophisticated, models of this kind provide the physically consistent input that engineers need to design structures capable of withstanding the sharpest blows an earthquake can deliver.

Subject of Research: Empirical modeling of near-fault velocity pulses in earthquake ground motion

Article Title: Empirical pulse model for near-fault ground motion considering magnitude, distance, and site characteristics

Article References: Chen, G., Chian, S. C., Beer, M., & Wei, S. (2026). Empirical pulse model for near-fault ground motion considering magnitude, distance, and site characteristics. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-026-02650-2

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s10518-026-02650-2

Keywords: near-fault ground motion, velocity pulse, pulse-like records, NGA-West2, wavelet transform, seismic hazard, ground motion simulation, rupture directivity, fling-step, Vs30, earthquake engineering, Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering