A multidisciplinary team from Baylor College of Medicine, Rice University and the University of Texas School of Public Health has received the inaugural Climate + Health Excellence award from the Burroughs Wellcome Fund. The five-year, $10 million award will support FORECAST, an ambitious program designed to investigate how climate change, extreme weather and environmental disruption influence the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. Led by infectious disease researcher Dr. Anthony Maresso, the project will combine wastewater surveillance, metagenomic sequencing, climate science, epidemiology and public education to create an early-warning system for pathogen activity across Texas.
FORECAST will build on Texas’s expanding wastewater-monitoring infrastructure, including the Texas Wastewater Environmental Biomonitoring Network, or TexWEB. The statewide network samples sewage from 15 Texas cities and analyzes biological material shed by communities. Unlike clinical surveillance, which depends on people seeking medical care and receiving diagnostic tests, wastewater epidemiology captures population-level signals from entire communities. Viral genetic fragments, bacterial DNA and other biological markers can appear in sewage before hospitals and clinics register a rise in patients, providing public health officials with valuable time to investigate and respond.
The program will use metagenomic surveillance, a technique that examines genetic material recovered from environmental samples rather than searching only for a predetermined pathogen. In conventional testing, laboratories typically use targeted molecular assays designed to detect a known virus or bacterium. Metagenomic sequencing can survey a much broader range of organisms, including variants and potentially unfamiliar pathogens. Researchers can then compare these signals with clinical data, geographic information and environmental measurements to determine whether changes in temperature, rainfall, flooding, drought or other conditions are associated with shifts in infectious disease activity.
The scientific goal is not simply to identify pathogens after they appear, but to uncover relationships between microbes and the environmental conditions that help them enter or circulate within human populations. Climate change can influence disease transmission through several pathways. Warmer temperatures may expand the geographic range or seasonal activity of mosquitoes and other vectors. Heavy rainfall and flooding can overwhelm sanitation systems and redistribute contaminants, while drought can alter water use and concentrate biological material. Changes in human behavior, animal movement and ecosystems may create additional opportunities for pathogens to cross species boundaries.
Maresso and his colleagues demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic that SARS-CoV-2 signals in wastewater could precede increases in clinically diagnosed infections. Viral RNA released in feces entered sewage systems, where researchers tracked changes in concentration over time. Although wastewater measurements cannot determine which individuals are infected, they can reveal whether pathogen activity is increasing or declining within a catchment area. The approach has since been extended to a wider range of targets, including avian influenza, measles, HIV and viruses associated with cancer. FORECAST aims to develop this surveillance capacity into a predictive climate-health platform.
Rice University climate scientist Dr. Sylvia Dee will help connect pathogen observations with weather and climate data. The team plans to examine whether specific environmental patterns consistently occur before increases in particular infectious agents. Such models could eventually function like a public health weather report, indicating when conditions are becoming more favorable for disease transmission. The researchers emphasize that predictive systems will require careful validation because the presence of pathogen genetic material does not necessarily indicate infectious virus, active transmission or a future outbreak. Interpreting the signal will require laboratory studies, clinical evidence and knowledge of local infrastructure.
The project will also investigate diseases transmitted by vectors such as mosquitoes. Dr. Peter Hotez and colleagues at the National School of Tropical Medicine will focus on vector-borne pathogen transmission and the growing health risks associated with changing climate conditions. Texas is particularly relevant for this work because it contains diverse ecological regions and experiences heat waves, hurricanes, flooding and rapid urban growth. These factors can affect mosquito habitats, human exposure and the movement of pathogens across communities. Integrating wastewater findings with vector surveillance could help reveal connections that would remain hidden if either system were used alone.
Education and public communication will form a central part of FORECAST. The team plans to create a “Middle to Medical” climate-health education track extending from middle school through medical training and professional development. Dr. Nancy Moreno, who developed Baylor’s BioEd online program, will lead educational efforts with Rice University’s Dr. Joseph Campana, director of the university’s Center for Environmental Studies and EcoStudio. The curriculum will explain how pathogens spread, how climate conditions alter disease risk and how scientific evidence can guide decisions by students, clinicians, policymakers and communities.
The award is particularly significant because FORECAST was selected as the sole funded project from 161 applications submitted to the new CHEX program. The initiative is intended to strengthen research, education and public engagement at the intersection of climate change and human health. Dr. Eric Boerwinkle, dean of the UT School of Public Health and a project co-investigator, will contribute access to large clinical datasets that can be used to evaluate wastewater and environmental signals against reported illnesses. The investigators say the work could improve outbreak preparedness while advancing the still-developing field of wastewater science.
By combining environmental sequencing with climate modeling and health education, FORECAST seeks to shift infectious disease surveillance from a largely reactive system toward earlier detection and prevention. Its findings may help officials recognize emerging threats before they produce widespread clinical disease, while also clarifying how environmental changes shape viral evolution, transmission and geographic spread. The researchers describe wastewater as an unusually candid public health resource: it aggregates biological information from a population without requiring individual testing. As climate pressures intensify, they argue, that collective signal could become an essential tool for protecting communities and preparing the next generation of scientists.
Subject of Research:
Climate-driven infectious disease emergence, wastewater epidemiology, metagenomic pathogen surveillance and climate-health education.
Article Title:
Texas Researchers Launch FORECAST Program to Link Climate Change With Emerging Viral Threats
Web References:
Baylor College of Medicine; Rice University; University of Texas School of Public Health; Burroughs Wellcome Fund; Texas Wastewater Environmental Biomonitoring Network (TexWEB).
References:
Information provided in the source news release concerning the FORECAST project, the Climate + Health Excellence award and TexWEB wastewater surveillance activities.
Keywords:
Wastewater epidemiology, viral surveillance, metagenomic sequencing, climate change, infectious diseases, pathogen emergence, public health, Texas, SARS-CoV-2, avian influenza, measles, vector-borne disease, climate health, epidemiology, wastewater science
