As the digital revolution relentlessly molds the fabric of modern society, a critical inquiry arises amidst this transformative epoch: Does the burgeoning digital economy serve as an ally or an adversary to environmental sustainability? Recent research emerging from Henan University of Urban Construction provides compelling evidence for a definitive positive impact—contingent on a green-integrated developmental trajectory. Through the application of an advanced Dynamic Energy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model tailored to China’s evolving economic canvas, scholars have elucidated the nuanced interplays between digitalization, carbon emissions, and public health outcomes, projecting insights up to the year 2030.
At the forefront of this inquiry, Professor Songtao Huo and colleagues have ventured beyond traditional econometric methodologies by adopting a dynamic, multi-sectoral modeling framework that encapsulates energy consumption patterns, technological shifts, and population health metrics in a consolidated simulation environment. The CGE model’s intricate architecture facilitates scenario analyses contrasting conventional growth pathways against a visionary “Green Digital Economy” paradigm, where digital advancements synergize with renewable energy adoption and emissions mitigation efforts.
The study’s revelations challenge prevailing skepticism about the environmental costs of digitization by illustrating a decoupling mechanism between economic expansion and pollution exacerbation. Contrary to fears of escalating digital energy demands fueling carbon output, the integration of green energy policies within the digital growth narrative manifests substantial reductions in pollutant concentrations—most notably PM2.5 particulate matter—a critical determinant of respiratory health and mortality risks worldwide.
Quantitative projections underscore pronounced energy efficiency gains attributable to the green digital shift. By 2030, total energy consumption is anticipated to contract by approximately 20%, descending to an estimated 250 million tons of standard coal equivalent (tce). This contraction reflects profound efficiencies in data center operations, smart grid implementation, and internet-of-things (IoT) enabled industrial automation, driving systemic optimizations across energy-intensive sectors. These advances collectively temper energy demand curves without compromising output, reinforcing the viability of sustainable digital economies at scale.
Significant public health dividends accompany the environmental improvements forecasted by the model. The anticipated decline in PM2.5 concentrations to around 22.36 micrograms per cubic meter represents an 11.5% amelioration over baseline conditions. This reduction directly curtails the incidence of pollution-triggered diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, and ischemic heart disease, thereby extending life expectancy and diminishing healthcare system burdens. The model’s inclusion of health parameters enables a holistic evaluation of socio-economic benefits intertwined with ecological stewardship.
The economic implications of this green trajectory refute the oft-encountered dichotomy between sustainability and prosperity. Simulation results indicate that GDP growth under the green digital scenario not only maintains but exceeds that of the status quo pathway. This counterintuitive finding is predicated on the catalytic role of digital innovations in fostering productivity enhancements, resource allocation efficiencies, and emergent green technology markets. The digital economy emerges as a dual agent, propelling economic dynamism while steering environmental recovery.
Policy prescriptions derived from this research advocate for a synchronized agenda where digital infrastructure expansion is inseparably linked with renewable energy deployments. The comprehensive model outputs serve as an empirical compass for decision-makers, emphasizing the criticality of coordinated investments in green technologies and digitalization strategies. Such integrative policymaking promises to unlock multiplier effects across energy, industrial, transport, and urban planning domains, optimizing societal returns on investment.
Beyond the immediate context of China’s urban-industrial framework, this pioneering study offers a scalable analytical paradigm suitable for global application. By capturing complex interdependencies between digital transformation and environmental-health matrices, it equips stakeholders with actionable insights to engineer resilient, low-carbon economies worldwide. The methodological convergence of energy systems modeling and health impact assessment charts a novel course for interdisciplinary research in climate and digital economics.
Professor Huo articulates a visionary perspective that redefines the digital economy’s role within the milieu of global environmental challenges. The research substantiates a conceptual framework where digitalization transcends its conventional economic utility to assume an ecological stewardship mantle. This dual-purpose function embodies the emergent paradigm of “digital-green harmonization,” a conceptual cornerstone for future sustainability agendas and international climate policy negotiations.
The study’s robustness is augmented by scenario sensitivity analyses that explore the ramifications of varying levels of renewable energy penetration, digital infrastructure quality, and regulatory environments. These nuanced explorations elucidate critical thresholds and feedback loops underpinning system dynamics, offering a valuable toolkit to calibrate policy interventions tailored to evolving geopolitical and technological contingencies.
In summation, this groundbreaking research paints an optimistic vista wherein deliberate, well-orchestrated digital economy development serves as an accelerant for carbon mitigation and public health gains. The prospective convergence of digital innovation with green energy deployment charts a transformational pathway that can reconcile economic vitality with planetary boundaries. With carbon emissions curtailed and human well-being elevated, the green digital economy narrative embodies a beacon of sustainable progress in an era defined by urgency and complexity.
This ambitious work underscores the imperative of transcending siloed perspectives to embrace integrative, dynamic modeling approaches that holistically capture the interplay between technology, environment, and society. It foregrounds the critical role of interdisciplinary collaboration in crafting evidence-based strategies that anticipate and harness the evolving contours of global change. As nations pivot towards digital futures, this research sets a benchmark for aligning innovation trajectories with ecological imperatives and human health priorities.
The findings delivered by this study resonate profoundly within policy circles, technology sectors, and public health domains, advocating a transformative agenda that leverages digital infrastructure as a fulcrum for sustainable development. It marks a pivotal contribution to the discourse on how emerging economies can leapfrog toward low-carbon growth while safeguarding citizens’ health, ultimately redefining the metrics of progress in the 21st century.
Subject of Research: Not applicable
Article Title: Impact of digital economy industry development on carbon emissions and human health: analysis based on China dynamic energy computable general equilibrium model
News Publication Date: 18-Jan-2026
Web References: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s44246-025-00245-1
References: Deng, L., Huo, S. Impact of digital economy industry development on carbon emissions and human health: analysis based on China dynamic energy computable general equilibrium model. Carbon Res. 5, 6 (2026).
Image Credits: Lei Deng & Songtao Huo
Keywords: Economics, Environmental economics
