Saturday, May 28, 2022
SCIENMAG: Latest Science and Health News
No Result
View All Result
  • Login
  • HOME PAGE
  • BIOLOGY
  • CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
  • MEDICINE
    • Cancer
    • Infectious Emerging Diseases
  • SPACE
  • TECHNOLOGY
  • CONTACT US
  • HOME PAGE
  • BIOLOGY
  • CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
  • MEDICINE
    • Cancer
    • Infectious Emerging Diseases
  • SPACE
  • TECHNOLOGY
  • CONTACT US
No Result
View All Result
Scienmag - Latest science news from science magazine
No Result
View All Result
Home SCIENCE NEWS Atmospheric Science

The Antarctica Factor: model uncertainties reveal upcoming sea level risk

February 13, 2020
in Atmospheric Science
0
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Sea level rise due to ice loss in Antarctica could become a major risk for coastal protection even in the near term, scientists say

“The ‘Antarctica Factor’ turns out to be the greatest risk, and also the greatest uncertainty, for sea-levels around the globe,” says lead-author Anders Levermann from the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Columbia University’s LDEO in New York. “While we saw about 19 centimeter of sea-level rise in the past 100 years, Antarctic ice-loss could lead to up to 58 centimeter within this century. Coastal planning cannot merely rely on the best guess. It requires a risk analysis. Our study provides exactly that: The sea level contribution of Antarctica is very likely not going to be more than 58 centimeters.”

Thermal expansion of the ocean water under global warming and melting of mountain glaciers, which to date have been the most important factors for sea-level rise, will come on top of the contribution from Antarctic ice-loss. The overall sea-level rise risk is thus even bigger, yet the ‘Antarctica Factor’ is about to become the most important one, according to the study now published in the journal Earth System Dynamics of the European Geosciences Union (EGU).

Large range of estimates makes the results very robust

The range of sea-level rise estimates from the ‘Antarctica Factor’ provided by the scientists is rather large. Assuming that humanity keeps on emitting greenhouse gases as before, the range the scientists call “very likely” to capture the future is between 6 and 58 centimeters for this century. If greenhouse gas emissions were to be reduced rapidly, it is between 4 and 37 centimeters. Importantly, the difference between a scenario of business-as-usual and a scenario of emissions reductions becomes substantially greater on longer time-scales, hence farther in the future.

The researchers accounted for a number of uncertainties in the computations, from the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions to oceanic heat transport to the Southern ocean. 16 ice sheet modeling groups comprised of 36 researchers from 27 institutes contributed to the new study, which was coordinated by PIK. A similar study six years earlier had to rely on the output of only five ice sheet models. This development reflects the increasing importance of research on the Antarctic ice sheet.

“Risks for coastal metropolises from New York to Mumbai, Hamburg to Shanghai”

“The more computer simulation models we use, all of them with slightly different dynamic representations of the Antarctic ice sheet, the wider the range of results that we yield – but also the more robust the insights that we gain,” says co-author Sophie Nowicki of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change who led the overarching ice sheet model intercomparison project, ISMIP6. “There are still large uncertainties, but we are constantly improving our understanding of the largest ice sheet on Earth. Comparing model outputs is a forceful tool to provide society with the necessary information for rational decisions.”

Over the long-term, the Antarctic ice sheet has the potential to raise sea level by tens of meters. “What we know for certain,” says Levermann, “is that not stopping to burn coal, oil and gas will drive up the risks for coastal metropolises from New York to Mumbai, Hamburg or Shanghai.”

###

Media Contact
PIK Press Office
[email protected]
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020

Tags: Algorithms/ModelsClimate ChangeEarth ScienceHydrology/Water ResourcesOceanography
Share25Tweet16Share4ShareSendShare
  • Body weight influences the chance of developing Polycystic Ovary Syndrome

    69 shares
    Share 28 Tweet 17
  • Protein supplement helps control Type 2 diabetes

    66 shares
    Share 26 Tweet 17
  • Study reveals potential target for treatment of diseases associated with mitochondrial DNA mutations

    65 shares
    Share 26 Tweet 16
  • New survey illustrates challenges associated with healthcare environmental hygiene in facilities worldwide

    67 shares
    Share 27 Tweet 17
  • Shared autonomous micro-mobility

    65 shares
    Share 26 Tweet 16
  • Discovery offers starting point for better gene-editing tools

    65 shares
    Share 26 Tweet 16
ADVERTISEMENT

About us

We bring you the latest science news from best research centers and universities around the world. Check our website.

Latest NEWS

Data contradict fears of COVID-19 vaccine effects on pregnancy and fertility

Long-duration energy storage beats the challenge of week-long wind-power lulls

‘Democracy’ governs mass jackdaw take-offs

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 188 other subscribers

© 2022 Scienmag- Science Magazine: Latest Science News.

No Result
View All Result
  • HOME PAGE
  • BIOLOGY
  • CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
  • MEDICINE
    • Cancer
    • Infectious Emerging Diseases
  • SPACE
  • TECHNOLOGY
  • CONTACT US

© 2022 Scienmag- Science Magazine: Latest Science News.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
Posting....