Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide, and nonoptimal ambient temperatures are a substantial and growing contributor to that burden. Epidemiological analyses of the Global Burden of Disease data attribute a meaningful share of cardiovascular mortality to temperatures outside the human comfort zone, and climate projections indicate that heat-related deaths will increase as extreme warm episodes become more frequent and more intense. What has been missing, the researchers note, is a set of sensitive biomarkers capable of flagging cardiovascular risk at an early stage, before a thrombotic event such as a heart attack or ischemic stroke actually occurs. The new study addresses that gap by examining how the blood lipidome, the full array of signaling fats circulating in plasma, reacts to cumulative temperature exposure over a 30-day window.

The investigation took the form of a longitudinal panel study involving 112 participants aged between 42 and 80 years, each of whom completed an average of 3.4 study visits during 2016 and 2017. Panel designs of this kind are powerful because they repeatedly sample the same individuals across changing environmental conditions, allowing each person to serve as their own control and thereby filtering out confounding factors such as diet, medication, and baseline health status. At every visit, the team drew blood and applied targeted lipidomics, a mass spectrometry-based technique that quantifies specific lipid species with high sensitivity, to measure 12 thrombosis-related signaling lipids drawn from three major lipid classes: eicosanoids, sphingolipids, and lysophospholipids.

The lipid panel included thromboxane B2, the stable hydration product of thromboxane A2, a potent platelet activator synthesized from arachidonic acid through the cyclooxygenase pathway. It also covered three lyso-platelet-activating factors, degraded fragments of the inflammatory lipid platelet-activating factor, seven lysophosphatidic acids, or LPAs, and sphingosine-1-phosphate, known as S1P. Each of these molecules plays a documented role in the clotting cascade. Thromboxane drives platelet aggregation and vasoconstriction, LPA activates platelets and endothelial cells and accumulates in atherosclerotic plaques, and S1P, generated intrinsically by sphingosine kinase 2, controls platelet aggregation both in laboratory assays and in living organisms. Ambient temperature data for the exposure window came from the China National Meteorological Information Centre, and the team modeled associations between cumulative temperature exposures of up to 30 days and lipid concentrations using generalized additive mixed models, a flexible statistical framework capable of capturing nonlinear dose-response relationships while accounting for repeated measures within individuals.

The results reveal a sharply asymmetric pattern. Cold exposure, defined as a 30-day cumulative temperature of minus 0.8 degrees Celsius compared with the 18.7 degree reference, was associated with significant decreases in thromboxane B2, two of the three lyso-PAFs, and most LPAs, with reductions ranging from 11 to 88 percent and a median of 45 percent. Heat exposure produced the opposite effect and hit harder. At a 30-day cumulative temperature of 27.7 degrees Celsius, every thrombosis-related lipid measured rose significantly except LPA 20:3, with increases spanning 26 to 2,484 percent and a median of 65 percent. Alongside the lipid changes, concentrations of soluble CD40 ligand, or sCD40L, a well-validated and sensitive biomarker of thrombotic disease released from activated platelets, climbed by 304 percent under heat exposure.

The temporal architecture of these responses carries particular significance for early risk detection. Lipid effects proved significant across cumulative exposure windows of 1 to 30 days, meaning the signaling lipids began responding to temperature almost immediately and continued to accumulate signal over the full month. Heat-related increases in sCD40L, by contrast, emerged only after 6 days of cumulative exposure. This lag difference implies that the lipids act upstream of the clinical biomarker, responding to thermal stress before the thrombotic machinery they help drive becomes measurable through sCD40L. In practical terms, a clinician or researcher monitoring these lipids could detect a pro-thrombotic shift days earlier than would be possible with conventional biomarkers alone.

Mediation analysis then tested whether the lipid changes actually carry the heat signal into the thrombosis pathway. Using causal mediation statistical methods, the team assessed whether lipid shifts explained part of the association between temperature and sCD40L. Four lipid species stood out: LPA 18:0, LPA 18:1, LPA 20:4, and LPA 22:6, together with S1P, mediated between 12 and 32 percent of the heat-to-sCD40L association. This mediation result is more than a statistical curiosity. It provides mechanistic evidence that heat exposure raises pro-thrombotic signaling lipids, and that these lipids in turn contribute to the platelet activation reflected in elevated sCD40L. In other words, the lipids are not merely correlated bystanders; they form a measurable link in the causal chain connecting environmental temperature to thrombotic risk.

The biological plausibility of this pathway rests on well-established cellular stress physiology. Heat shock is known to stimulate the release of arachidonic acid and the synthesis of prostaglandins and leukotriene B4 in mammalian cells, and inducers of the heat shock response activate phospholipase C and phospholipase A2, the enzymes that cleave membrane phospholipids to generate lysophospholipid mediators. Phospholipase A2 itself functions as a mechanosensor, its activity modulated by membrane physical state, which changes with temperature. Sphingolipids, meanwhile, have been identified as heat stress signals in organisms ranging from yeast to mammals, with ceramide formation during heat shock serving as a mediator of stress-response transcription. Multiple mechanisms linked to platelet activation converge on the generation of LPA and S1P in blood, so a thermal stimulus that activates these enzymatic cascades would be expected to raise circulating concentrations of exactly the lipid species the Beijing team measured.

The cold side of the dose-response curve tells a complementary story. Prior clinical work has shown that mild surface cooling raises platelet counts, red cell counts, blood viscosity, and arterial pressure, factors implicated in coronary and cerebral thrombosis mortality during winter. Yet the new lipid data indicate that sustained cold exposure lowers most thrombosis-related signaling lipids, a pattern consistent with recent reports that cold-induced changes in plasma signaling lipids associate with a healthier cardiometabolic profile. The authors suggest this apparent paradox may reflect the distinction between acute cold episodes, which trigger sympathetic activation and vasoconstriction, and the cumulative 30-day lipid response measured here, which may capture adaptive metabolic remodeling rather than immediate pro-thrombotic stress. Disentangling these timescales remains a priority for future research.

For a field racing to adapt public health systems to climate change, the implications are concrete. Thrombosis-related signaling lipids responded to heat earlier than sCD40L and mediated up to 32 percent of the heat-related thrombotic response, making them candidates for biomarker-based screening of populations during heat waves. Targeted lipidomics methods developed by the same group, including online solid-phase extraction liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry for oxylipins and hydrophilic interaction chromatography methods for lysoglycerophospholipids and sphingolipids, have already made high-throughput quantification feasible for epidemiological studies. If validated in larger and more diverse cohorts, lipid panels of this kind could support heat-health warning systems that identify individuals at elevated cardiovascular risk before symptoms appear, and inform climate adaptation strategies that treat thermal exposure as a modifiable cardiovascular hazard rather than an unavoidable background condition.

Subject of Research: Association between ambient temperature and thrombosis-related signaling lipids: Implications for early cardiovascular risk

Article Title: Association between ambient temperature and thrombosis-related signaling lipids: Implications for early cardiovascular risk

Article References: Li, H., Chen, X., Xu, Y., Wang, T., Yao, Y., Chen, W., Gong, J., Qiu, X., & Zhu, T. (2026). Association between ambient temperature and thrombosis-related signaling lipids: Implications for early cardiovascular risk. Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41370-026-00987-z

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1038/s41370-026-00987-z

Keywords: Association, between, ambient, temperature, thrombosis-related, signaling, lipids, Implications, early, cardiovascular, risk, scientific research