The study, published in Environmental Earth Sciences, focuses on the Upper Jurassic Malm aquifer, a karstified carbonate formation lying more than 1,400 meters below the surface of the South German Molasse Basin. The Malm is the workhorse of Bavarian geothermal energy: up to 600 meters thick, composed of limestones and dolomites riddled by multiple episodes of karstification, and cut by an extensive network of normal faults created as the Alpine orogeny bent the lithosphere. Its waters reach 80 to 85 degrees Celsius, hot enough to feed district heating grids across the region. But the same fractures and faults that make the reservoir productive also raise a persistent engineering question: how much can operators push fluid through this underground before the rock itself pushes back?

To answer that question, the researchers built a three-dimensional synthetic geological model inspired by the faulted Malm reservoir north of Munich, incorporating a real fault interpreted from the GRAME seismic survey, one of the largest urban geothermal seismic campaigns ever conducted in Europe, which imaged roughly 170 square kilometers of the city’s subsurface in 2015 and 2016. Into this model they placed two competing operational schemes. The first was the familiar hydrothermal doublet: a production well drawing ambient-temperature reservoir fluid continuously, paired with an injection well returning the cooled water year-round. The second was an HT-ATES triplet, a three-well arrangement in which a bidirectional hot well injects water heated to 140 degrees Celsius during six-month summer periods and produces it again in winter, a cold well reinjects the cooled fluid at 50 degrees Celsius, and a buffer well balances the mass by producing ambient-temperature water.

The simulations were run with the open-source PorousFlow module of the MOOSE framework, coupling single-phase saturated fluid flow, heat transport, and linear elastic rock mechanics into a fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical model. Water properties were calculated with the IAPWS-IF97 equation of state, and the model was subjected to the strike-slip stress regime of the Molasse Basin, with a maximum horizontal stress gradient of 34.6 kilopascals per meter oriented due north. Each simulation ran for ten years, spanning twenty alternating summer and winter cycles for the triplet and a decade of continuous operation for the doublet, with flow rates of 150 liters per second at every well. The team then evaluated the response of the reservoir and the fault using slip-tendency analysis, a standard geomechanical measure of how close a fault surface is to frictional failure.

The first striking result concerns pressure. Because the Malm aquifer is extraordinarily permeable, around 1.48 by 10 to the minus 12 square meters in the model, pressure perturbations from injection and production remained tiny, on the order of plus or minus 0.1 megapascal after ten years. That means poroelastic effects, the stress changes caused directly by fluid pressure, played almost no role in the mechanical response. Instead, the geomechanics of the reservoir turned out to be governed almost entirely by thermoelasticity: the expansion of rock where hot water is injected and its contraction where cold water is injected. Heating near the hot well increased compressive normal stress and even stabilized nearby fault sections, while cooling near the cold and injection wells reduced normal stress and pushed the fault closer to slipping.

The differences between the two operating styles were substantial. After ten years, the vertical displacement at the top of the reservoir reached 28 millimeters at the doublet’s injection well, compared with 19 millimeters at the triplet’s cold well and just 8 millimeters at its hot well. The hot plume and the cold plume also stratified by density: buoyant hot water accumulated near the top of the reservoir, where temperatures at the hot well reached 132 degrees Celsius, while denser cold water sank and spread along the base, where only 118 degrees was recovered. Because the doublet injects cold water continuously rather than cyclically, and injects twice the total volume over the decade, its cumulative thermal perturbation was larger, and its stress-field disturbance grew monotonically rather than partially recovering during rest periods.

The fault-stability comparison was even more decisive. The complexly oriented fault surface, with spatially varying strike and dip, showed initial normalized slip-tendency values ranging from 0 to 0.76, highest where the fault faces the direction of maximum horizontal stress at a favorable 30-degree angle. After ten years of operation, the hydrothermal doublet raised the maximum normalized slip tendency by 0.137 near its injection well, concentrated in the deeper fault sections where the cold plume pooled and the well sat closest to the fault. The HT-ATES triplet, by contrast, increased slip tendency by only 0.03, roughly four times less. Neither scenario crossed the critical threshold of 1.0, meaning no fault destabilization was predicted even under deliberately conservative assumptions, including critically stressed crust, zero cohesion, and wells placed a mere 178 meters from the most vulnerable fault segment, far closer than real projects would ever site them.

Heterogeneity proved to be the wild card. The Malm’s karst networks mean permeability can vary by orders of magnitude between layers, and the team tested moderately and extremely heterogeneous end-member scenarios spanning more than three orders of magnitude in permeability contrast. In the extreme case, a single 30-meter layer at the top of the reservoir, representing just 5 percent of its volume, carried 45 percent of the injected fluid. This concentration of flow reduced thermal recovery efficiency by roughly 10 percent compared with the homogeneous case, which achieved about 90 percent recovery after ten years, and it slightly increased fault slip-tendency changes to 0.04. Where the high-permeability layers sat deeper in the reservoir, closer to the slanting fault, the destabilizing cold-front stress changes shifted downward with them, a reminder that the three-dimensional geometry of karst zones matters as much as their existence.

To probe the long term, the team extended the extremely heterogeneous triplet scenario to fifty years. By then the cold front had finally reached the fault surface, and the maximum normalized slip-tendency change had grown from 0.04 to 0.2, with absolute slip tendency peaking at 0.9 in the most critical sections. Still below the failure threshold, but uncomfortably close, and a clear signal that decades of repeated cold-water cycling gradually erode the geomechanical safety margin. The authors are careful to note the caveats: their linear elastic framework cannot capture fatigue, damage accumulation, or plastic deformation across cycles; permeability was held constant; the model is synthetic rather than site-calibrated; and the two schemes serve different engineering purposes, so a rigorous comparison would need to normalize for delivered thermal energy.

Even with those limits, the implications for Munich and cities like it are concrete. Thermoelastic stress changes of this kind announce themselves in the field through falling injection pressures and rising injectivity near cold wells, exactly the locations where all major induced seismic events in the Munich area have historically clustered, making the vicinity of injection wells the natural place to focus monitoring with borehole strainmeters, extensometers, or distributed acoustic sensing. The predicted displacements, up to 28 millimeters at reservoir depth nearly 1.5 kilometers down, are expected to attenuate strongly toward the surface and are readily detectable with standard downhole instruments. As Munich pushes toward a climate-neutral heat supply and looks to store summer surpluses, whether from geothermal, industrial waste heat, or solar thermal, in its own bedrock, this study suggests that seasonal storage triplets can do the job while shaking the faults beneath the city less than the geothermal plants that have operated there for years.

Subject of Research: Comparative thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling of high-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage and hydrothermal doublet operation in the faulted Malm geothermal reservoir near Munich

Article Title: Thermo-hydro-mechanical response of the operation style in a faulted Malm reservoir: Storage triplet vs. hydrothermal doublet

Article References: Dashti, A., Stricker, K., Hörbrand, T., Habibi, R., Beichel, K., & Kohl, T. (2026). Thermo-hydro-mechanical response of the operation style in a faulted Malm reservoir: Storage triplet vs. hydrothermal doublet. Environmental Earth Sciences, 85(16), Article 404. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-026-13141-7

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s12665-026-13141-7

Keywords: geothermal energy, HT-ATES, aquifer thermal energy storage, hydrothermal doublet, Malm aquifer, Molasse Basin, Munich, fault stability, slip tendency, thermoelasticity, induced seismicity, district heating