Published in Energy & Fuels, the study projects that U.S. data center power capacity will escalate from 40 gigawatts in 2025 to an astounding 169 gigawatts by 2030. This explosive growth threatens to increase yearly carbon dioxide emissions from data centers’ fossil-fueled electricity sources from roughly 90 million metric tons to more than 400 million metric tons. Lau emphasizes the dual challenge posed by AI-era data centers: scaling infrastructure reliably and sustainably, while aligning with stringent decarbonization objectives.

The research team analyzed public data on announced U.S. data centers, scrutinizing their geographic distribution, power capacities, and energy sources. Key hotspots of expansion include Texas, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and several western states. Texas alone may need an additional 25 gigawatts of power capacity by 2030 to meet anticipated demands. Given the necessity for steady, uninterrupted power, natural gas combined cycle plants fitted with CCS emerged as a viable solution. These plants offer lower CO2 emissions than coal-fired counterparts and are often located near vast underground saline aquifers ideal for long-term carbon storage.

The study’s geological assessment identified that 34 states have sufficient saline aquifer capacity to sequester over 100 years’ worth of data center-related carbon emissions beyond 2030. By 2025, these aquifers could potentially store around 59 million metric tons of CO2, representing 66% of that year’s emissions. By 2030, the capacity could rise to 299 million metric tons, nearly three-quarters of projected emissions. Including out-of-state storage possibilities, over 90% of these emissions might be captured and securely stored underground.

Lau clarifies that carbon capture is not the sole remedy but underscores that existing geology combined with current technology offers a pragmatic route to decarbonizing digital infrastructure hotspots. The study’s conservative assumptions—such as considering only publicly disclosed data center plans and holding state energy mixes static through 2030—highlight a realistic, if modest, approach to modeling emissions trajectories and mitigation potential.

This work provides a crucial framework linking the exponential rise of data centers, energy production demands, and scalable solutions for carbon management. As AI continues to reshape economies and energy landscapes, integrating CCS with natural gas power generation in key regions presents a tangible pathway toward responsible, low-carbon computing infrastructure.

In sum, the AI economy’s looming energy requirements necessitate innovative strategies for balancing growth with climate imperatives. Lau and colleagues’ findings illuminate how carbon storage technology, geographically targeted and technically feasible, can play a pivotal role in shaping a sustainable digital future.

Subject of Research: Carbon capture and storage for decarbonizing U.S. data centers
Article Title: The Role of Carbon Capture and Storage in Decarbonizing U.S. Data Centers
News Publication Date: 15-May-2026
Web References: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.6c01309
Image Credits: Low Carbon Energies, LLC

Keywords

Carbon capture, data centers, carbon storage, natural gas power plants, AI energy demand, decarbonization, saline aquifers, carbon dioxide emissions

Texas boasts a unique nexus of abundant energy resources, ample land availability, and robust industrial infrastructure. These factors collectively attract data center developers eager to capitalize on the state’s favorable business climate and infrastructure assets. However, such rapid development brings a host of multifaceted challenges involving energy consumption, water usage, land management, and community engagement. Recognizing these issues, COMPASS aims to generate actionable, data-driven insights that enable stakeholders to optimize resource allocation and mitigate environmental impacts while fostering economic growth.

At the core of COMPASS is a collaborative framework that unites industry leaders, academic researchers, and policy makers. This alliance leverages extensive datasets and cutting-edge modeling techniques to analyze how data centers interact with Texas’ surface and subsurface resources. Through this integrative approach, the consortium seeks to forecast future energy demands, assess water resource implications, and evaluate infrastructure compatibility, thereby guiding smarter siting and operational decisions for digital infrastructure.

The Bureau of Economic Geology, housed within UT Austin’s Jackson School of Geosciences, assumes a central role in facilitating COMPASS. Established over a century ago as the State Geological Survey of Texas, the bureau offers unparalleled expertise in subsurface characterization, resource assessment, and environmental monitoring. By coupling these capabilities with economic modeling and stakeholder engagement, the bureau ensures that COMPASS delivers holistic analyses that account for physical, economic, and social dimensions of data center proliferation.

One of the consortium’s critical contributions is its data-centric white paper titled “Data Center Growth in Texas: Energy, Infrastructure, and Policy Pathways.” This comprehensive assessment elucidates the intricate interactions between large electrical loads, regional power grids, and environmental constraints. Building on prior research conducted for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the white paper outlines actionable pathways to balance the escalating power demands of data centers with the reliability and sustainability of the Texas electric grid.

COMPASS also distinguishes itself by embracing community involvement as a fundamental component of its mission. Researchers engage directly with residents and local leaders in areas hosting or considering data center developments. This engagement fosters transparency and dialogue, allowing the consortium to incorporate community priorities such as water conservation, land stewardship, and local economic benefits into their models and recommendations. By doing so, COMPASS aims to empower communities to make informed decisions that align infrastructural growth with their values and long-term resilience.

Financially supported through an Industrial Affiliates Program, COMPASS encourages corporate and institutional partners to contribute resources and data in exchange for early access to research outputs and a seat at the strategic discussion table. The consortium’s membership offers comprehensive benefits including forecasting reports, interactive mapping tools, policy briefs, and opportunities to collaborate on applied pilot projects. This symbiotic relationship accelerates innovation while maintaining rigorous scientific standards and public accountability.

The technical challenges addressed by COMPASS are deeply interdisciplinary. For instance, understanding the subsurface thermal impacts of data centers requires sophisticated geological modeling integrated with civil engineering principles. Additionally, optimizing power distribution involves electrical engineering solutions to manage peak loads, incorporate renewable sources, and ensure grid stability. Economic analyses then evaluate the costs and benefits of various deployment strategies under different regulatory and market conditions, delivering pragmatic insights for stakeholders.

Texas’ strategic position as a data center locus stems not only from its resource wealth but also its proactive approach to managing digital infrastructure’s footprint. COMPASS embodies this ethos by combining scientific rigor with practical application, ensuring that data center growth does not come at the expense of environmental sustainability or community well-being. As AI-driven technologies expand, such forward-looking models become indispensable for balancing innovation with responsible development.

While currently focused on Texas, the research framework developed by COMPASS holds promise for broader adoption. Regions worldwide facing analogous pressures from digital infrastructure expansion can adapt the consortium’s methodologies to local geological, economic, and social contexts. This scalability underlines the consortium’s potential as a blueprint for integrating advanced geoscience and engineering into sustainable infrastructure planning globally.

In summary, the launch of COMPASS represents a critical advance at the intersection of geoscience, technology, and policy. Through collaborative research, community engagement, and data-driven modeling, the consortium is charting pathways toward a more sustainable digital future. In doing so, it not only supports Texas’ ambition to become a leading AI innovation hub but also contributes valuable knowledge essential for navigating the complex challenges of the data center revolution worldwide.

Subject of Research: Sustainable growth and management of data center infrastructure with a focus on power allocation, surface and subsurface resource optimization.

Article Title: Collaborative Strategies for Sustainable Data Center Growth: Insights from The University of Texas at Austin’s COMPASS Consortium

Web References:

• COMPASS program: https://compass.beg.utexas.edu/
• Bureau of Economic Geology: https://www.beg.utexas.edu/
• Industrial Affiliates Programs at UT Austin: https://discoverytoimpact.utexas.edu/investors/industrial-affiliates-programs
• Data Center White Paper: https://www.beg.utexas.edu/files/cee/Data_Center_White_Paper_BEG.pdf

Image Credits: The Jackson School of Geosciences

Keywords: Computer science, Energy resources, Artificial intelligence, Computers, Electrical power, Power distribution, Electrical power generation