The research team, led by Celestin Ndikumana of the Department of Governance and Public Administration at the University of Rwanda, together with Emmanuel Shema, Vedaste Ndizera and Gerard Bikorimana, set out to identify the self-reported determinants of subjective wellbeing among these long-standing residents. Subjective wellbeing, in the language of social science, refers to how people evaluate their own lives—their satisfaction with income, health, relationships, housing and daily circumstances—rather than relying on objective measures such as income brackets or infrastructure counts alone. It is a measure that captures something statistics on GDP per capita or housing supply cannot: whether people feel their lives are going well. In rapidly suburbanizing contexts, where formal planning often lags behind informal settlement growth, that subjective dimension may be the most honest barometer of whether urban transition is improving or eroding quality of life.

Methodologically, the study took a deliberately quantitative approach. The researchers collected data from 317 respondents who had directly experienced the conversion of their rural surroundings into a suburbanized environment. Rather than relying on simple averages or descriptive statistics, the team applied a battery of bivariate analyses—including Mann–Whitney tests, Kendall’s tau-b correlations and Kruskal–Wallis tests—to explore how wellbeing differed across demographic and socioeconomic groups. These non-parametric techniques are well suited to ordinal survey data, where respondents rate satisfaction on ordered scales rather than continuous measures. To move beyond association and isolate the factors that genuinely predict life satisfaction, the researchers then estimated an ordered logistic regression model, a statistical framework designed for outcomes that fall into ranked categories. This layered analytical design allowed the team to distinguish, for example, whether marital status mattered for happiness independently of income, or whether household composition exerted its own effect once economic variables were controlled.

The findings complicate a common assumption that marriage and family life universally buffer people against hardship. In this suburbanizing setting, single individuals reported higher odds of being satisfied with their wellbeing compared to their married, separated and widowed counterparts. The authors suggest that this may reflect the economic and social pressures that marital responsibilities impose in transitional environments—pressures that can intensify when land values shift, livelihoods are disrupted and the cost of urban living rises around long-term residents. Separated and widowed respondents faced particular disadvantages, underscoring how marital disruption interacts with urbanization to shape emotional and material security. At the same time, household composition told a more nuanced story: people living together with their spouses and children exhibited higher life satisfaction than those in other living arrangements. The apparent paradox—that being single predicted satisfaction while co-residence with spouse and children also predicted satisfaction—points to the importance of household functioning and support rather than marital status alone, a distinction the researchers argue deserves closer attention in future wellbeing research.

Economic factors emerged as some of the most powerful predictors of life satisfaction in the study. Employment opportunities, income satisfaction and expenditure satisfaction all positively influenced wellbeing, confirming that in suburbanizing areas the transition is experienced largely through the wallet. When farmland disappears, original settlers lose not only agricultural income but also a traditional safety net; their economic fate increasingly depends on access to wage employment, small enterprise or rental income from subdivided land. Respondents who felt their income was adequate and who were satisfied with how their spending covered household needs reported markedly better wellbeing than those who struggled financially. This pattern aligns with broader development literature showing that perceived economic security—rather than absolute income alone—drives subjective evaluations of life. For policymakers, the implication is sharp: urban expansion that generates construction and land speculation but not stable livelihoods for original residents may expand the city’s footprint while shrinking its long-standing communities’ sense of wellbeing.

Beyond economics, the conditions of daily life carried substantial weight. Housing conditions, general health, education and work-life balance all contributed significantly to life satisfaction in the study’s regression model. In suburbanizing peripheries, housing is often the most visible battleground of urban transition: original settlers may see their homesteads crowded by new developments, face pressure to sell or subdivide, or live in structures that no longer match the changing character of the neighborhood. Those with adequate, stable housing reported greater satisfaction, as did those in better general health—an intuitive but important finding, since health systems on urban fringes often fail to keep pace with population growth. Education functioned as both an economic and psychological resource, equipping residents to navigate new opportunities, while work-life balance emerged as a distinct dimension of wellbeing, suggesting that the demands of adapting to a suburbanizing economy can strain time and energy in ways that directly erode life satisfaction.

The study’s geographic and social context matters. Sub-Saharan Africa is urbanizing faster than almost any other world region, and much of that growth is absorbed not by dense city cores but by sprawling peripheral areas where rural land is incrementally converted to urban use. The people who experience this transformation most intimately are original settlers—farmers, herders and villagers who never chose to become urbanites but woke up one day to find the city at their doorstep. Their subjective wellbeing has been chronically under-researched, with most urban wellbeing studies focusing on established city dwellers or rural populations in isolation. By centering original settlers, this study fills a genuine gap and gives a statistical voice to a population often treated as background in narratives of African urban growth. The research was conducted under a postdoctoral fellowship supported by the bilateral cooperation between the University of Rwanda and the Swedish Programme for Research in Higher Education and Institutional Advancement, with guidance acknowledged from Sofie Hellberg of the University of Gothenburg.

Ethical rigor underpinned the data collection. Approval was granted by the Ethics Committee of the University of Rwanda’s Institutional Review Board under protocol 01/CASS-DRI/2023, and the study followed the Declaration of Helsinki guidelines. Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants before data collection, participation was voluntary and confidentiality was assured. These safeguards are particularly important in research on land and livelihoods, where questions about income, housing and family circumstances can touch on sensitive issues of displacement, land sales and economic vulnerability. The authors declare no competing interests relevant to the content of the article, and the work is published open access under a Creative Commons license, making the full dataset of findings available to researchers and policymakers across the region.

What makes the findings resonant beyond a single urban fringe is their consistency with a growing global recognition that wellbeing is multidimensional. Money matters, but so do the people in the household, the roof over one’s head, one’s health, education and the balance between work and the rest of life. In suburbanizing Sub-Saharan Africa, where millions of people are undergoing this transition simultaneously, the study suggests that subjective wellbeing is shaped by the interaction of socioeconomic stability, social relationships and access to opportunities—three pillars that can either reinforce each other or collapse together depending on how the transition is managed. The single-versus-married finding, in particular, invites deeper investigation into how family obligations mediate the stresses of urbanization, and whether support systems for married and widowed residents could close the satisfaction gap the data reveal.

For policymakers, the study distills into a clear agenda: address economic disparities by broadening employment opportunities for original settlers, improve housing conditions as neighborhoods densify, and foster community support systems that sustain the social fabric through the turbulence of transformation. The authors emphasize that enhancing urban quality of life requires looking not only at newcomers and city cores but at the people whom urbanization arrived to meet. As African cities continue their outward march, the happiness of those who were there first may prove one of the most meaningful measures of whether growth is truly development—or merely expansion.

Subject of Research: Determinants of subjective wellbeing among original settlers in rapidly suburbanizing areas on the outskirts of a major city in Sub-Saharan Africa

Article Title: Subjective wellbeing of original settlers in suburbanizing areas on the outskirts of a major city in Sub-Saharan Africa

Article References: Ndikumana, C., Shema, E., Ndizera, V., & Bikorimana, G. (2026). Subjective wellbeing of original settlers in suburbanizing areas on the outskirts of a major city in Sub-Saharan Africa. Discover Social Science and Health. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44155-026-00471-x

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s44155-026-00471-x

Keywords: subjective wellbeing, urbanization, life satisfaction, Sub-Saharan Africa, socioeconomic factors, suburbanization, housing conditions, employment, ordered logistic regression, original settlers, household composition, urban quality of life