Using group-based trajectory modeling, a statistical technique that identifies subgroups of people following similar patterns over time, the team identified four distinct trajectories of depressive symptoms. The largest group, 62.2 percent of participants, reported no symptoms throughout the study period. A further 19.7 percent followed an increasing trajectory, 10.0 percent showed remitting symptoms, and 8.2 percent experienced persistently severe symptoms across the follow-up years.

The association between chronic disease and these trajectories was substantial. After adjustment in multivariable logistic regression, women with more than three chronic diseases had odds of belonging to the persistently severe symptom trajectory that were 8.47 times those of women without such a burden, with a 95 percent confidence interval of 5.79 to 12.47. As an observational cohort study, the design cannot establish that chronic diseases cause the depressive trajectories.

Certain conditions stood out. Stroke, kidney disease, and arthritis or rheumatism were identified as the conditions most strongly associated with membership in the persistently severe depressive symptom trajectory. The study also documented social and reproductive factors linked to adverse trajectories.

Elevated odds of belonging to unfavorable depressive symptom groups were observed among women with lower educational attainment, those living in rural areas, and those with a history of premature menopause. These findings situate mental health risk within a broader social and life-course context rather than within medical history alone. To probe the mechanisms behind the association, the researchers conducted mediation analyses examining whether sleep duration and cognitive function accounted for part of the relationship between chronic diseases and depressive symptoms.

Both contributed. Sleep duration carried an effect size of 0.206 and cognitive function an effect size of 0.099, both statistically significant at p less than 0.001, meaning each explained a measurable share of the association between chronic disease burden and depressive symptom trajectories. The mediation results indicate that the link between physical illness and depression in this population is not fully accounted for by disease count alone.

The study’s scope and limitations are worth noting. The cohort consisted of Chinese postmenopausal women aged 45 and older participating in a national longitudinal survey, so the findings may not generalize to other populations or to men. Depressive symptoms were measured through survey instruments rather than clinical diagnoses, and the observational design means the reported odds ratios describe associations, not confirmed causal effects.

The researchers conclude that the long-term trajectory of depressive symptoms in Chinese postmenopausal women is substantially associated with chronic disease burden, and they highlight the need for an integrated multidisciplinary treatment model for this population. In practical terms, the findings suggest that managing depression risk in postmenopausal women may require attention not only to mood itself but to the full pattern of chronic conditions, sleep, and cognitive health measured alongside it in this cohort.

Subject of Research: Longitudinal associations between chronic diseases and depressive symptom trajectories in postmenopausal Chinese women

Article Title: Association of chronic diseases with depressive symptom trajectories in postmenopausal women: a population-based cohort study

Article References: Shou, M., Liu, Z., Ye, M., Wu, J., & Fu, Z. (2026). Association of chronic diseases with depressive symptom trajectories in postmenopausal women: a population-based cohort study. BMC Psychiatry. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12888-026-08799-z

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1186/s12888-026-08799-z

Keywords: postmenopausal women, depressive symptoms, chronic disease, cohort study, CHARLS, trajectory modeling, stroke, arthritis, sleep duration, cognitive function, mental health, China