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	<title>overfitting &#8211; Science</title>
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	<title>overfitting &#8211; Science</title>
	<link>https://scienmag.com</link>
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		<title>AI Model Predicts Chemotherapy Response in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer, With Caveats</title>
		<link>https://scienmag.com/ai-model-predicts-chemotherapy-response-in-metastatic-colorectal-cancer-with-caveats/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nathaniel Bowman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Oct 2026 23:04:05 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Cancer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AI-based decision support in metastatic colorectal cancer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BMC Cancer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[challenges of small clinical datasets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chemotherapy response]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[clinical dataset limitations in AI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[clinical prediction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[early chemotherapy response forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[feature importance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[first-line chemotherapy response prediction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gradient boosting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LightGBM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[limitations and caveats of AI in oncology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Machine learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[machine learning algorithms in cancer prognosis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[machine learning in oncology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[metastatic colorectal cancer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[metastatic colorectal cancer chemotherapy response prediction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oncology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[overfitting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[personalized cancer therapy prediction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precision medicine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[predictive modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[predictive modeling for cancer treatment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[treatment outcome prediction using computational models]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://scienmag.com/?p=272291</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Turkish researchers tested fifteen machine learning models to predict chemotherapy response in metastatic colorectal cancer, finding that a tuned LightGBM model reached 0.79 accuracy in training but dropped to 0.60 on test data, highlighting both the promise and the overfitting risks of clinical AI.]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Metastatic colorectal cancer remains one of the most formidable challenges in modern oncology. When the disease has spread beyond the colon or rectum to distant organs, first-line chemotherapy becomes the cornerstone of treatment, yet clinicians have long lacked a reliable way to know, before the first infusion is even given, whether a particular patient will respond. A new study from researchers at Necmettin Erbakan University School of Medicine in Konya, Turkey, published in BMC Cancer, tackles this problem head-on by turning to machine learning. The team, led by Oğuzhan Yıldız and including co-authors Ali Fuat Gürbüz, Melek Karakurt Eryılmaz, Murat Araz, Mahmut Selman Yıldırım, Hakan Şat Bozcuk and Mehmet Artaç, tested a battery of fifteen different algorithms to see whether computational models could forecast how patients would fare on their initial chemotherapy regimen. The results offer both a promising proof of concept and a sobering lesson about the pitfalls of building predictive models from small clinical datasets.</p>
<p>The study enrolled 101 patients newly diagnosed with metastatic colorectal cancer at a single academic center, all of whom were beginning first-line chemotherapy. The cohort had a median age of 62 years, and 69 percent of the patients were male. For each patient, the researchers compiled a rich set of clinical variables, ranging from demographic characteristics such as age at diagnosis to disease-specific features including the maximum dimension of metastatic lesions and whether metastases were present at the time of the initial diagnosis. The goal was deceptively simple: using only information available at or near the start of treatment, could an algorithm predict the best response a patient would achieve during first-line chemotherapy? This question matters enormously in clinical practice, because patients who are unlikely to benefit from a toxic and burdensome regimen might be spared unnecessary side effects, while those likely to respond could be prioritized for aggressive treatment.</p>
<p>To answer it, the team cast a wide net across the machine learning landscape. They evaluated fifteen distinct models, spanning the full spectrum of algorithmic families used in biomedical prediction research. Among them were classical statistical classifiers such as logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis and quadratic discriminant analysis, alongside naive Bayes methods that rely on probabilistic assumptions of feature independence. They also tested instance-based learning with K-nearest neighbors, margin-based classification with support vector machines, and a suite of ensemble approaches that combine many weaker learners into a stronger one: decision trees, random forests, extra trees, AdaBoost and gradient boosting classifiers. Each algorithm learns patterns from the training data in a fundamentally different way, and the researchers wanted to know which family of methods best captured the complex, nonlinear relationships between patient characteristics and treatment outcome.</p>
<p>The standout performer was LightGBM, the Light Gradient Boosting Machine, a relatively recent algorithm developed by Microsoft researchers that has become a favorite in tabular data competitions and biomedical applications alike. In its initial configuration, LightGBM achieved an accuracy of 0.71 in predicting chemotherapy response, outperforming the fourteen competing models. After the researchers tuned its hyperparameters, the model&#8217;s accuracy climbed to 0.79, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, or AUC, of 0.82. These numbers are worth unpacking. Accuracy of 0.79 means the correctly classified roughly four out of five patients in the training data, while an AUC of 0.82 indicates that the model had a strong ability to discriminate between responders and non-responders across all possible classification thresholds. In oncology, where predictions guide decisions with life-and-death consequences, an AUC above 0.80 is generally considered a meaningful level of discriminative power.</p>
<p>LightGBM&#8217;s advantage stems from two clever engineering innovations that make gradient boosting both faster and less memory-hungry. Gradient boosting works by building an ensemble of decision trees sequentially, with each new tree trained to correct the errors of its predecessors. Traditional implementations evaluate every data point at every possible split point in every tree, which becomes computationally expensive as datasets grow. LightGBM introduces Gradient-based One-Side Sampling, or GOSS, which keeps data points with large gradients, meaning those the current model handles poorly, while randomly sampling from points with small gradients, since those are already well fit. It also employs Exclusive Feature Bundling, or EFB, which merges mutually exclusive sparse features into single features, dramatically reducing the number of dimensions the algorithm must consider. Together, these techniques allow LightGBM to handle clinical datasets efficiently while capturing subtle interactions between variables that simpler models would miss.</p>
<p>Perhaps the most clinically intriguing finding concerns which variables the model deemed most important. Feature importance analysis revealed that age at diagnosis, the maximum metastatic dimension, and metastatic status at diagnosis were the dominant predictors of chemotherapy response. In other words, the model leaned heavily on basic clinical and radiological characteristics rather than molecular data. Notably, genetic variables did not significantly impact the response predictions. This is a striking result given the central place that molecular biomarkers, such as RAS and BRAF mutation status, occupy in contemporary colorectal cancer decision-making. The finding may reflect the limited sample size, the specific set of genetic variables available in this cohort, or the possibility that, within this dataset, gross clinical features carried more predictive signal than the genetic information captured. Whatever the explanation, it suggests that inexpensive, routinely collected clinical data may hold more predictive power than clinicians might assume.</p>
<p>But the story takes a cautionary turn when the researchers evaluated their tuned model on a held-out test dataset, data the model had never seen during training. Performance dropped sharply: accuracy fell from 0.79 to 0.60. The authors interpret this decline as evidence of potential overfitting, the phenomenon in which a machine learning model memorizes the idiosyncrasies of its training data rather than learning generalizable patterns. Overfitting is an ever-present danger in medical machine learning, and it is particularly acute when the number of patients is small relative to the number of variables, as is the case here with 101 patients. A model with hundreds of tunable parameters can effectively memorize the outcomes of individual patients in the training set, producing impressive internal metrics that evaporate when confronted with new cases. The honest reporting of this performance drop is itself noteworthy, as the field of clinical machine learning has been criticized for publishing inflated results based solely on training or cross-validation performance.</p>
<p>The implications for clinical practice are therefore measured. The authors conclude that their LightGBM-based model demonstrated moderate performance in estimating response to first-line chemotherapy in metastatic colorectal cancer patients, but they are explicit that its clinical applicability remains limited and requires validation in larger, independent cohorts. This is the crucial next step for any predictive model aspiring to enter the clinic: external validation on data from different institutions, different populations and different time periods. A model that performs well only at the center where it was trained is of little use to the broader community of oncologists and patients. Larger multi-institutional datasets would also allow the models to better learn the true relationships between predictors and outcomes, potentially reducing the overfitting that undermined this study&#8217;s test performance and enabling more robust incorporation of genetic variables.</p>
<p>Despite these limitations, the study adds to a growing body of evidence that machine learning can extract meaningful predictive signals from routine clinical data in oncology. The identification of age at diagnosis, maximum metastatic dimension and metastatic status at diagnosis as key features aligns with clinical intuition and provides a starting point for future model refinement. The finding that fifteen different algorithms could be systematically compared on the same clinical question also illustrates how the methodological toolkit of data science is maturing within cancer research. As electronic health records accumulate richer data and computational methods grow more sophisticated, the vision of personalized treatment selection, in which an algorithm helps an oncologist choose the chemotherapy regimen most likely to work for a specific patient, moves closer to reality. This study, with its transparent reporting of both promise and failure, represents an honest step along that path rather than a premature declaration of victory.</p>
<p>For patients with metastatic colorectal cancer, the immediate takeaway is not that an algorithm will soon choose their treatment, but that the data needed to build such tools already exist in ordinary clinical records. The challenge ahead is assembling cohorts large enough, and diverse enough, to train models that generalize beyond a single hospital&#8217;s walls. If future studies can replicate and improve upon the discriminative power achieved here while eliminating the overfitting, gradient boosting machines and their kin could become standard instruments in the oncologist&#8217;s arsenal, helping to spare patients futile toxicity and direct them toward therapies with the greatest chance of benefit. The Turkish team&#8217;s work demonstrates both that this goal is within reach and that the road to trustworthy clinical artificial intelligence demands rigor, humility and, above all, validation on patients the model has never met.</p>
<p><strong>Subject of Research:</strong> Machine learning prediction of first-line chemotherapy response in metastatic colorectal cancer</p>
<p><strong>Article Title:</strong> A gradient boosting machine-based approach to predicting chemotherapy response in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer</p>
<p><strong>Article References:</strong> Yıldız, O., Gürbüz, A. F., Eryılmaz, M. K., Araz, M., Yıldırım, M. S., Bozcuk, H. Ş., &amp; Artaç, M. (2026). A gradient boosting machine-based approach to predicting chemotherapy response in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. <em>BMC Cancer</em>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-026-16347-x" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-026-16347-x</a></p>
<p><strong>Image Credits:</strong> AI Generated</p>
<p><strong>DOI:</strong> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-026-16347-x" rel="noopener noreferrer">10.1186/s12885-026-16347-x</a></p>
<p><strong>Keywords:</strong> metastatic colorectal cancer, machine learning, LightGBM, gradient boosting, chemotherapy response, predictive modeling, oncology, overfitting, clinical prediction, feature importance, BMC Cancer, precision medicine</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">272291</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Eigenvector Alignment, Not Training Error, Predicts How Kernel Machines Generalize</title>
		<link>https://scienmag.com/eigenvector-alignment-not-training-error-predicts-how-kernel-machines-generalize/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Denise Maddox]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Oct 2026 21:49:27 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Technology and Engineering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eigenvalues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eigenvalues and eigenvectors in kernel methods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eigenvector alignment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eigenvectors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[generalization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[generalization in kernel machines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[kernel alignment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[kernel matrix eigenstructure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[kernel ridge regression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[learning theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Machine learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[matrix perturbation theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[model capacity and eigenvector contribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[model prediction and eigenvector projections]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[neural tangent kernel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[overfitting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[predicting unseen data performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[regularization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk estimation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[spectral bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[spectral decomposition in machine learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[theoretical analysis of kernel methods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[training error limitations]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://scienmag.com/?p=245569</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[A new theoretical study shows that in kernel ridge regression, generalization hinges on the alignment between learning targets and the eigenvectors of the kernel matrix, while training error is nearly uninformative.]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kernel ridge regression has long been one of the workhorses of modern machine learning, powering everything from Gaussian-process style prediction to the theoretical study of wide neural networks through the neural tangent kernel. Yet a new study published in the journal Machine Learning argues that one of the field&#8217;s most trusted signals, the training error, is close to meaningless when it comes to predicting how well these models will perform on unseen data. The paper, authored by Yang Liu, Ernest Fokoue, Richard Lange, and Daniel Krutz of the Rochester Institute of Technology, builds a fresh account of generalization around a single concept: the alignment between the eigenvectors of the kernel matrix and the learning targets.</p>
<p>The core mathematical observation is deceptively simple. In kernel ridge regression, the prediction for the training data can be written as a weighted sum of the eigenvectors of the kernel matrix, where each weight is the projection of the target vector onto that eigenvector, scaled by the corresponding eigenvalue divided by the eigenvalue plus the regularization parameter. This spectral decomposition means that whatever the model learns is confined to the span of the kernel&#8217;s eigenvectors, and the contribution of each direction depends jointly on how strongly the target aligns with it and how large its eigenvalue is. A direction with a huge eigenvalue but poor alignment contributes almost nothing, while a weakly aligned trailing eigenvector can quietly dominate the error.</p>
<p>From this decomposition, the authors derive a striking result about reconstruction, the model&#8217;s ability to reproduce its own training labels. They prove that as long as the kernel matrix has sufficient rank, the reconstruction error can be made arbitrarily small simply by shrinking the regularization parameter, an algebraic fact that holds regardless of the data distribution. In high-dimensional settings, near-zero training loss is therefore nearly always achievable. The researchers demonstrate this empirically with synthetic targets built from eigenvectors of a linear kernel: once the input dimension exceeded roughly 500, reconstruction errors collapsed toward zero across the board. The practical implication is unsettling for practitioners who treat a low training loss as evidence of a healthy model, because the training error carries almost no predictive power for test performance.</p>
<p>The study goes further and shows that near-zero reconstruction error is not even a reliable sign of overfitting. In experiments on MNIST images of the digits four and nine, the team constructed learning targets aligned either with the top eigenvectors of the kernel matrix or with its trailing eigenvectors. When the target was aligned with the leading directions, both training and test predictions were nearly perfect. When it was aligned with the trailing directions, the model still reproduced the training data almost exactly, yet its test performance collapsed. The same pattern held on CIFAR10, FashionMNIST, and SVHN2, confirming that the gap between training and test behavior is governed by which part of the eigenspectrum the target inhabits, not by the training loss itself.</p>
<p>To explain these observations, the authors turn to matrix perturbation theory, treating the kernel matrix built from any finite sample as a perturbed version of a hypothetical optimal kernel matrix of the same size. Using classical tools such as the Davis-Kahan theorem, they derive an explicit finite-sample bound on the generalization error expressed in terms of three quantities: the alignment of the learning targets with the eigenvectors, the magnitude of the eigenvalues, and the gaps between consecutive eigenvalues. Strong generalization, the theorem says, requires increasing any of these. Targets aligned with the top eigenvectors benefit from all three at once, because leading eigenvalues are large, well separated, and estimated most accurately from finite data.</p>
<p>This perturbation perspective yields a reinterpretation of the familiar bias-variance tradeoff. In their framing, bias arises when the top eigenvectors cannot represent the learning targets, while variance arises when the targets must be represented by trailing eigenvectors, whose sample estimates are unstable and noisy. Overfitting in kernel ridge regression, on this view, is essentially a failure of the kernel to distinguish information from noise, either because the data are fundamentally too noisy or because the kernel choice is suboptimal. The finding echoes recent work on benign overfitting, but grounds it in concrete spectral quantities that can be computed from a single training set.</p>
<p>Perhaps the most provocative claim concerns regularization. The ridge parameter, long regarded as the main lever for controlling model complexity in the non-parametric setting, turns out to have minimal influence on generalization for most learning targets. Because leading eigenvalues are typically large relative to any reasonable regularization strength, the parameter barely changes their weights. It matters only when targets align with trailing eigenvectors, precisely the regime where generalization is already poor. The authors summarize this bluntly: regularization is more about salvaging bad performance than improving good performance, and its primary role is mitigating numerical instability rather than shrinking the hypothesis space. Their experiments confirm the pattern, showing that stronger regularization often increases generalization error except in the trailing-eigenvector regime.</p>
<p>The paper also delivers a practical payoff in the form of a simple empirical risk estimator, built from the projections of the target onto each eigenvector weighted by the inverse eigenvalue gaps. When benchmarked against the Kernel Alignment Risk Estimator of Jacot and colleagues and the eigenlearning estimator of Simon and colleagues on MNIST and FashionMNIST, the new estimator tracked the true testing error most closely in the leading eigendirections, roughly up to index 250 for MNIST and 300 for FashionMNIST. Existing estimators significantly underestimated the risk in trailing eigendirections, where the new bound, though loose, at least captured the upward trend. The authors note that sharper eigenvector perturbation bounds could improve the estimator further.</p>
<p>Methodologically, the work distinguishes itself from prior analyses by avoiding Gaussian assumptions on the sampling operator, an assumption that recent critiques have shown to be unrealistic in practice, and by focusing on the finite-sample regime rather than asymptotic limits. The comparison with a hypothetical optimal training set, chosen to minimize misalignment with the actual sample, allows the authors to state their bounds without distributional assumptions. They also highlight a connection to empirical observations in deep learning, noting that well-generalized neural networks tend to have weight matrices with isolated eigenvalues, consistent with the emphasis on eigenvalue gaps in their theory.</p>
<p>The authors are candid about limitations. Their analysis assumes noiseless labels, does not handle missing data, and produces bounds that may not be tight, since they are built from a chain of inequalities. Even so, the message is likely to resonate widely: what a kernel machine learns is determined not by how well it fits its training data, but by whether the structure of the data and the kernel conspire to place the target in the stable, well-estimated part of the spectrum. For a field increasingly concerned with understanding why overparameterized models generalize at all, that reframing turns the spotlight away from the loss curve and toward the geometry of the eigenspectrum.</p>
<p><strong>Subject of Research:</strong> Eigen-alignment and generalization in kernel ridge regression</p>
<p><strong>Article Title:</strong> On Kernel Eigen-Alignments of KRR: Reconstruction and Generalization</p>
<p><strong>Article References:</strong> Liu, Y., Fokoue, E., Lange, R., &amp; Krutz, D. (2026). On Kernel Eigen-Alignments of KRR: Reconstruction and Generalization. <em>Machine Learning, 115</em>(10), Article 238. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-026-07177-w" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-026-07177-w</a></p>
<p><strong>Image Credits:</strong> AI Generated</p>
<p><strong>DOI:</strong> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-026-07177-w" rel="noopener noreferrer">10.1007/s10994-026-07177-w</a></p>
<p><strong>Keywords:</strong> kernel ridge regression, eigenvectors, generalization, machine learning, kernel alignment, matrix perturbation theory, regularization, overfitting, learning theory, spectral bias, eigenvalues, risk estimation</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">245569</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Machine learning reveals investor demand as the main driver of Malaysian IPO underpricing</title>
		<link>https://scienmag.com/machine-learning-reveals-investor-demand-as-the-main-driver-of-malaysian-ipo-underpricing/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Teresa Odom]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2026 14:30:01 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Technology and Engineering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bandwagon effect]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bursa Malaysia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic drivers of IPO underpricing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[explainable AI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fixed-price IPO mechanisms]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fixed-price mechanism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[information asymmetry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[initial public offering pricing anomalies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investor demand in stock markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IPO first-day trading pop]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IPO market liquidity and costs in Malaysia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IPO underpricing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Machine learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[machine learning algorithms for financial analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[machine learning in finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Malaysian IPO underpricing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[moderation effects in IPO valuation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[over-subscription ratio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[overfitting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[predictive modeling of IPO underpricing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Random Forest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[role of investor demand in IPO pricing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SHAP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[support vector regression]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://scienmag.com/?p=228247</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[A machine learning benchmark of 350 Malaysian IPOs finds that a regularized linear support vector model outperforms complex ensembles and that investor demand, measured by the over-subscription ratio, is the dominant driver of first-day underpricing, with herding effects erasing information asymmetry above a 30-fold oversubscription threshold.]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When a company floats its shares on a stock exchange and the price leaps on the first day of trading, the issuer has effectively left money on the table. This phenomenon, known as initial public offering underpricing, is one of the most stubborn anomalies in finance, and it is particularly extreme in markets where offer prices are fixed before anyone knows what investors are willing to pay. Malaysia is a striking case: because of limited liquidity and the prohibitive cost of book-building, Malaysian IPOs are priced through a fixed-price mechanism, and the average first-day pop exceeds 50 percent. A new study published in Discover Artificial Intelligence has now brought a battery of machine learning tools to bear on this puzzle, using 350 Malaysian IPOs from 2004 to 2021 to identify which algorithms best predict underpricing and, more importantly, which economic forces actually drive it.</p>
<p>The research team, led by Ali Albada of Sohar University with collaborators from Oman, Malaysia and beyond, faced a methodological challenge that has long hampered the field. The most interesting dynamics in IPO pricing are moderation effects, in which the influence of one factor depends on the level of another. Conventional linear regression assumes that each feature contributes independently and additively, which makes it blind to such conditional relationships. The authors&#8217; solution was twofold. First, they engineered explicit interaction terms, such as the product of investor demand and the knowledge gap, so that even linear models could learn non-linear moderation. Second, they applied SHAP, or Shapley Additive exPlanations, a game-theoretic interpretability technique that quantifies each feature&#8217;s marginal contribution to predictions and can expose threshold effects that a single regression coefficient would miss.</p>
<p>Seven algorithms were benchmarked in a rigorously controlled pipeline: linear regression, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, XGBoost, LightGBM and a multilayer perceptron. The dataset was split 80/20 into training and hold-out test sets, features were standardized using statistics computed only on the training data to prevent leakage, and hyperparameters were tuned by grid search with five-fold cross-validation. The verdict was surprising to anyone who assumes that bigger models are always better. The humble support vector regression with a linear kernel won decisively, achieving a test R-squared of 0.512 and a cross-validated R-squared of 0.486, with a train-test gap of just 0.050, indicating minimal overfitting.</p>
<p>The glamorous ensembles fared far worse out of sample. XGBoost posted the highest training R-squared at 0.624 but lost 0.226 of that advantage on the test set, while random forest and LightGBM showed similar overfitting gaps of 0.166 and 0.221. With only 350 observations, the flexibility that makes tree ensembles powerful becomes a liability: each fold of cross-validation produces divergent trees, inflating variance. Formal Diebold-Mariano tests confirmed that the linear SVR&#8217;s advantage over random forest, XGBoost and the neural network was statistically significant at the five percent level, and out-of-time validation, training on 2004 to 2015 and testing on 2016 to 2021, showed the model retained 94 percent of its performance, ruling out period-specific artifacts. The message is clear: in small, noisy financial datasets, carefully regularized linear models with smart feature engineering beat complexity.</p>
<p>Having settled the predictive question, the team turned to interpretation, retaining the random forest specifically for SHAP-based interaction diagnostics. The global feature importance rankings converged across three independent methods, SHAP values, an ablation study and SVR coefficients, on a short list of dominant drivers. The over-subscription ratio, a measure of investor demand recorded days before listing, contributed 40.7 percent of predictive power and, on its own, accounted for 66.3 percent of the model&#8217;s explanatory capacity. The knowledge gap, an ex-ante uncertainty proxy capturing information asymmetry between issuers and investors, contributed another 15.6 percent. Together with market condition and offer price, the top five features explained 88 percent of the model&#8217;s predictions, a remarkably parsimonious result.</p>
<p>The most consequential finding concerns how demand and information asymmetry interact. Hierarchical regression with bootstrapped confidence intervals, run over 10,000 resamples, confirmed a significant positive interaction between the over-subscription ratio and the knowledge gap, with a coefficient of 0.0284 and a p-value of 0.002 that survived Bonferroni correction for three simultaneous hypothesis tests. But SHAP dependence plots revealed something a single interaction coefficient cannot: the moderation is non-linear. At moderate demand levels, between 10 and 30 times oversubscription, the knowledge gap&#8217;s effect on underpricing is strong. Above 30 times, it collapses by 73 percent, dropping from a coefficient of 0.067 to 0.018.</p>
<p>This threshold pattern maps directly onto Ivo Welch&#8217;s 1992 cascade, or bandwagon, theory. When oversubscription is extreme, herding takes over: investors stop evaluating fundamentals and simply follow the crowd, so information asymmetry stops mattering. Momentum-based decision-making overrides valuation concerns, and the price outcome is driven by the cascade itself. The authors are careful to frame this as a conditional association rather than proof of causation, acknowledging that the over-subscription ratio is simultaneously a revealed demand signal and a reflection of underpricing expectations. They treat this simultaneity as a theoretical feature of the cascading mechanism rather than a confound, noting that valid instrumental variables are scarce in the Malaysian setting.</p>
<p>The other two hypotheses fared less well. Offer price showed only marginal moderation of the knowledge gap effect, with a coefficient of 0.0198 and a p-value of 0.073 that did not survive multiple-testing correction, possibly because underwriters strategically set low prices when they anticipate high information asymmetry, creating reverse causality that muddies the signal. Listing board, comparing the Main Market with the riskier ACE Market, showed no moderation at all, with a negligible coefficient of 0.0089 and a p-value of 0.496. The likely explanation is that board membership is already encoded in correlated features such as offer price and offer size, leaving it no incremental predictive role once those covariates are controlled.</p>
<p>The study is not without limits, which the authors catalogue candidly. The best model still leaves roughly 49 percent of underpricing variance unexplained, hinting at omitted determinants such as founder characteristics, venture capital backing, media sentiment and ESG performance. The knowledge gap proxy inevitably blends information asymmetry with firm quality and ex-ante risk, constructs that are theoretically intertwined and difficult to decompose. And the findings are specific to a fixed-price regime; in book-building markets like the United States or United Kingdom, institutional behavior, analyst coverage and roadshows may dominate where retail demand rules in Malaysia.</p>
<p>Even so, the practical implications are pointed. For issuers and underwriters, managing demand through allocation policy matters more than almost any pricing signal. For investors, extreme oversubscription is both an opportunity and a warning that fundamentals have been sidelined by herding. For regulators, the concentration of predictive power in retail demand suggests that subscription allocation and disclosure rules directly shape pricing efficiency. Methodologically, the paper offers a template for financial machine learning: benchmark broadly, validate temporally, separate prediction from interpretation, and never trust a black box without bootstrapped statistical confirmation. Explainable AI, the authors argue, is most valuable not as a replacement for econometrics but as a pattern-finding partner that tells traditional inference where to look.</p>
<p><strong>Subject of Research:</strong> Machine learning analysis of IPO underpricing drivers in Malaysia&#x27;s fixed-price market</p>
<p><strong>Article Title:</strong> Uncovering the drivers of IPO underpricing in Malaysia through machine learning benchmarking</p>
<p><strong>Article References:</strong> Albada, A., Ramadan, R. A., Abusham, E. E., Ng, S. H., Ong, C. Z., Low, S.-W., &amp; Qatiti, K. A. (2026). Uncovering the drivers of IPO underpricing in Malaysia through machine learning benchmarking. <em>Discover Artificial Intelligence, 6</em>(1), Article 1305. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s44163-026-02390-x" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://doi.org/10.1007/s44163-026-02390-x</a></p>
<p><strong>Image Credits:</strong> AI Generated</p>
<p><strong>DOI:</strong> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s44163-026-02390-x" rel="noopener noreferrer">10.1007/s44163-026-02390-x</a></p>
<p><strong>Keywords:</strong> IPO underpricing, machine learning, SHAP, support vector regression, random forest, over-subscription ratio, information asymmetry, fixed-price mechanism, Bursa Malaysia, bandwagon effect, overfitting, explainable AI</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">228247</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>How Synthetic Humans Are Teaching AI to See People Better</title>
		<link>https://scienmag.com/how-synthetic-humans-are-teaching-ai-to-see-people-better/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Blake Davidson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2026 22:03:59 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Earth Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[advances in mapping human body joints with synthetic data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AI techniques for surveillance and self-driving cars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[challenges in annotating human images for AI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[computer vision]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[data augmentation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[data augmentation for human pose estimation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deep learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[diffusion models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethical considerations in human-centric AI data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[generative adversarial networks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human parsing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human parsing and joint detection in computer vision]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human pose estimation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human-centered computer vision]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[improving pedestrian detection with synthetic data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[open-access survey on data augmentation methods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[overcoming overfitting in human recognition AI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[overfitting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pedestrian detection]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[person re-identification]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[privacy-preserving data collection in AI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stable Diffusion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[synthetic data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[synthetic humans for training deep neural networks]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://scienmag.com/?p=223846</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[A first-of-its-kind survey maps how data perturbation, synthetic rendering, and generative models are transforming AI systems that detect, track, and analyze humans in images.]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Artificial intelligence systems that recognize people in images—whether tracking individuals across surveillance cameras, detecting pedestrians for self-driving cars, or mapping the joints of a human body—share a stubborn weakness: they are voracious consumers of data, and the data they need is expensive, privacy-sensitive, and often scarce. A comprehensive new survey published in the open-access journal Vicinagearth argues that the solution lies in a family of techniques known as data augmentation, and for the first time maps the entire landscape of these methods as they apply specifically to human-centered computer vision tasks.</p>
<p>The review, led by Wentao Jiang of Beihang University together with colleagues including Shuicheng Yan of Skywork AI, focuses on four pillars of human-centric vision: person re-identification, human parsing, human pose estimation, and pedestrian detection. All four rely on deep neural networks that can excel on their training data yet stumble on unseen images—a phenomenon known as overfitting. The problem is compounded by the nature of the data itself. Annotating human bodies, with their articulated joints, fine-grained clothing boundaries, and occlusions in crowded scenes, is labor-intensive and costly, while privacy concerns often limit how much real footage of people can be collected and shared in the first place.</p>
<p>To organize a sprawling literature, the authors divide augmentation techniques into two broad families. The first, data perturbation, takes existing images and modifies them to create new training examples. The second, data generation, manufactures entirely new samples, either with graphics engines or with generative models. Within each family, the survey draws a further distinction that turns out to be crucial: some operations act on the whole image, while others target the human figure itself, exploiting knowledge of body structure that generic augmentation methods ignore.</p>
<p>Image-level perturbation is the simplest and most widely used branch. Global transformations such as rotation, scaling, noise injection, and style transfer alter the overall appearance of a picture. Style transfer, which blends the content of one image with the visual style of another, has proven particularly valuable for person re-identification, where images captured by different surveillance cameras exhibit systematic color and lighting differences. By stylizing training images across camera styles, models learn to focus on structural features of a person rather than the color cast of a particular camera. The survey&#8217;s experiments on the Market-1501 benchmark, which contains more than 32,000 images of over 1,500 identities filmed by multiple cameras, show that such camera-style augmentation lifts performance well above a baseline SVDNet model, with the strongest results coming from methods that combine generative and discriminative training signals.</p>
<p>Region-level perturbations operate more surgically. Techniques such as random erasing, Cutout, and GridMask deliberately remove or obscure rectangular patches of an image, forcing networks to cope with the partial occlusions that pervade real scenes. A related approach replaces selected regions with grayscale patches, encouraging models to become less dependent on color information, which varies wildly with lighting conditions. The authors caution, however, that these methods walk a fine line: too little occlusion provides no benefit, while excessive or unrealistic erasure can destroy the very features a model needs to learn, degrading performance instead of improving it.</p>
<p>The more distinctive contribution of the survey lies in its treatment of human-level perturbation, where augmentations are guided by the anatomy of the body itself. One technique masks body keypoints with background patches to simulate occluded joints, directly training pose estimation networks to recover from missing evidence. Another uses human parsing to segment a person into semantic parts—head, torso, arms, legs—and then recombines them into a pool from which complex scenes of occlusion and interaction can be synthesized. A third method overlays crops of one person onto another to mimic the crowding typical of pedestrian scenes. At the skeletal level, methods such as PoseTrans apply affine transformations to individual limbs after erasing them from the image, generating a rich variety of plausible poses, while 3D approaches like PoseAug adjust posture, body size, viewpoint, and even split-and-recombine upper and lower body configurations in a differentiable framework that is optimized jointly with the pose estimator. On the MS-COCO benchmark, these human-aware methods, particularly PoseTrans, outperformed generic image-level augmentations when applied to an HRNet-W32 backbone, and on 3D datasets such as Human3.6M and MPI-INF-3DHP, augmentation methods like PoseAug and DH-AUG reduced mean per-joint position error relative to unaugmented baselines.</p>
<p>When perturbation is not enough, researchers turn to outright generation. Graphics-engine approaches render synthetic humans into real backgrounds: MixedPeds, for example, automatically calibrates a virtual camera using the vanishing point of a real dataset, estimates pedestrian scales, and spawns synthetic human agents in unannotated images to train pedestrian detectors. Other systems sample the 3D pose space, deform parametric body models, map on clothing textures, and render the results from varied viewpoints and lighting conditions, producing not only RGB images but also ground-truth 2D and 3D poses, depth maps, surface normals, and body-part segmentation—annotations that would be prohibitively expensive to collect by hand. The survey notes that this is especially important for 3D pose estimation, where ground truth is largely confined to indoor motion-capture studios, causing models trained on such data to generalize poorly to the wild.</p>
<p>Generative models offer a second route to new data. Pose-transfer GANs extract skeletal poses and re-pair them with different appearances, synthesizing images of the same identity in novel poses and clothing—a direct boon for person re-identification, where each identity is typically represented by only a handful of images. Frameworks such as PTGAN and pose-transferring ReID systems add similarity-measurement modules or auxiliary guidance networks to keep generated samples realistic and useful for the downstream task. The survey&#8217;s comparison on Market-1501 found that DG-Net, which jointly learns discriminative and generative objectives, achieved the highest mean average precision among the augmentation methods tested. Yet GANs carry well-known liabilities, including training instability and mode collapse, in which the generator produces only a narrow slice of the possible variations.</p>
<p>This is where the survey&#8217;s forward-looking analysis becomes most striking. The authors identify pre-trained Latent Diffusion Models, exemplified by Stable Diffusion, as the most promising direction for the field. Diffusion models work by iteratively denoising random noise into coherent images, guided by learned priors, and they sidestep the adversarial discriminator entirely, simplifying training while producing diverse, high-quality samples. The survey sketches concrete applications: controllable diffusion models could generate the same person across outfits, poses, lighting conditions, and camera angles for re-identification; pose-guided synthesis systems such as ControlNet and HyperHuman could manufacture human figures in rare or difficult poses for pose estimation; parsing maps could condition the generation of images with varied clothing and body types for human parsing; and pedestrians could be rendered in diverse urban settings, weather conditions, and crowded or partially obscured scenarios for detection. Beyond full generation, diffusion models could also upgrade perturbation and recombination—seamlessly compositing foreground people into new backgrounds with correct lighting and perspective, swapping one human subject for another while preserving scene realism, and applying subtle changes to clothing or surroundings without the artifacts that plague simple copy-paste and inpainting.</p>
<p>The evidence assembled in the survey suggests that augmentation choices matter as much as architecture choices in human-centric vision. On the CrowdHuman pedestrian detection benchmark, methods such as CrowdAug, SimCP, and SAutoAug consistently improved average precision and Jaccard Index over Faster R-CNN and RetinaNet baselines, and qualitative examples show augmented models detecting pedestrians that baseline systems miss entirely. In human parsing, background replacement and copy-paste techniques sharpen instance segmentation, though the authors note that this subfield still lacks standardized datasets, making comparisons difficult. What emerges overall is a clear principle: methods that respect the structure of the human body—its joints, parts, and the way people occlude one another—consistently outperform generic image tricks. As generative models grow more powerful and controllable, the authors argue, the field stands on the verge of training data that is at once abundant, diverse, and realistic, promising vision systems that see people more robustly in the messy, crowded, and unpredictable environments where they actually operate.</p>
<p><strong>Subject of Research:</strong> Data augmentation techniques for human-centric computer vision tasks</p>
<p><strong>Article Title:</strong> Data augmentation in human-centric vision</p>
<p><strong>Article References:</strong> Jiang, W., Zhang, Y., Zheng, S., Liu, S., &amp; Yan, S. (2024). Data augmentation in human-centric vision. <em>Vicinagearth, 1</em>(1), Article 8. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s44336-024-00002-9" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://doi.org/10.1007/s44336-024-00002-9</a></p>
<p><strong>Image Credits:</strong> AI Generated</p>
<p><strong>DOI:</strong> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s44336-024-00002-9" rel="noopener noreferrer">10.1007/s44336-024-00002-9</a></p>
<p><strong>Keywords:</strong> data augmentation, computer vision, person re-identification, human pose estimation, pedestrian detection, human parsing, generative adversarial networks, diffusion models, synthetic data, deep learning, overfitting, Stable Diffusion</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">223846</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>AI Can Spot Heart Disease, But a New Survey Warns Its Dazzling Accuracy May Be Too Good to Be True</title>
		<link>https://scienmag.com/ai-can-spot-heart-disease-but-a-new-survey-warns-its-dazzling-accuracy-may-be-too-good-to-be-true/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Frances Kline]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Sep 2026 12:49:24 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Technology and Engineering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[accuracy of algorithms in predicting heart disease]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cardiovascular disease]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[classical machine learning methods for cardiovascular risk assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[clinical decision support]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[critical appraisal of AI research in healthcare]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deep learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deep learning for heart disease prediction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ECG classification]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[electronic health records in AI-based heart disease detection]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[evaluation of peer-reviewed AI studies for heart disease]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[explainable AI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[explainable AI in healthcare]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[federated learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[heart disease detection]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[heart disease detection AI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[limitations of AI accuracy in medical diagnosis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Machine learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[machine learning in cardiovascular diagnosis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[open-access review of AI applications in cardiology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[overfitting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risks of overestimating AI capabilities in medicine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SHAP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[transformers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[XGBoost]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://scienmag.com/?p=210189</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[A sweeping new survey of 57 studies finds that machine learning and deep learning models report accuracy as high as 99.7 percent for heart disease detection, but warns that almost none of these results have been validated outside small, single-centre benchmark datasets.]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cardiovascular disease kills roughly 17.9 million people every year, accounting for about 32 percent of all deaths worldwide, and the World Health Organization projects that annual deaths will climb from 20.5 million in 2025 to 35.6 million by 2050—a staggering 90 percent increase over just 25 years. Against that backdrop, a new open-access survey in Discover Informatics has compiled and critically appraised 57 peer-reviewed studies, published mostly between 2020 and 2025, that apply machine learning, deep learning, and explainable artificial intelligence to the detection of heart disease. The review, authored by Md. Siam Ansary of Ahsanullah University of Science and Technology in Dhaka, is as much a warning as it is a celebration: the algorithms are getting astonishingly good, but the evidence behind their headline numbers is often far weaker than the figures suggest.</p>
<p>The technical landscape the survey maps is broad. On structured clinical data—the kind of tabular records found in electronic health records—classical machine learning still dominates. Logistic regression, the same mathematical backbone as the decades-old Framingham Risk Score, achieves a respectable 80 to 86 percent accuracy on the widely used UCI Cleveland dataset of 303 patient records. Support vector machines, which find optimal separating hyperplanes in kernel-transformed feature spaces, reach 80 to 92 percent depending on preprocessing and tuning. But the consistent stars are ensemble methods. Random Forest, which averages many decision trees trained on bootstrapped data subsets, reports 88 to 94 percent accuracy with ROC-AUC values of 0.92 to 0.95, while XGBoost—which builds shallow trees sequentially, each correcting the residual errors of the last—achieves around 93 percent accuracy with an AUC of 0.94 on combined UCI data. LightGBM and CatBoost land within one to two percentage points of XGBoost at lower computational cost.</p>
<p>Deep learning, by contrast, has transformed the analysis of physiological signals and medical images. One-dimensional convolutional neural networks operate directly on raw electrocardiogram waveforms, learning hierarchical, translation-invariant features without manual engineering, and have reported over 99 percent accuracy in five-class arrhythmia classification on the MIT-BIH benchmark. Hybrid CNN-LSTM models, which combine local waveform detection with memory of long-range temporal dependencies, reach 97.8 percent on eight-class arrhythmia detection. The most striking recent development is the arrival of transformers. HeartBEiT, a vision-based transformer pre-trained on 8.5 million ECGs using masked image modelling, outperforms ResNet-152 and EfficientNet-B4 at every training-data fraction, showing a 28.4 percent improvement when only 1 percent of labelled data is available. Another architecture, HCTG-Net, fuses a residual CNN branch for local patterns with a transformer branch for global context through a learnable gated mechanism, achieving 0.9946 accuracy on MIT-BIH.</p>
<p>The survey also documents the rise of explainable artificial intelligence, which has become non-negotiable for clinical adoption. SHAP, grounded in cooperative game theory, assigns each input feature a Shapley value quantifying its marginal contribution to a prediction, and across multiple studies it consistently identifies age, maximum heart rate, chest pain type, and ST depression as the most influential predictors—features that map neatly onto established cardiological knowledge. LIME builds simple local surrogate models around individual predictions, while Grad-CAM highlights the image or waveform regions driving a CNN&#8217;s decision. Regulatory frameworks, including the EU AI Act and FDA guidance on software as a medical device, increasingly demand exactly this kind of transparency, and studies report that cardiologists are more willing to accept AI support when explanations align with their clinical reasoning.</p>
<p>Then comes the sobering part. The survey finds that the studies reporting the highest accuracy figures—often above 99 percent—are almost exclusively evaluated on small, single-centre benchmark datasets such as UCI Cleveland, which contains just 303 records collected decades ago, or single-database ECG corpora like MIT-BIH. None of the reviewed studies reporting top performance evaluated their models on an independent cohort from a different institution, country, or demographic. The author&#8217;s conclusion is blunt: these numbers should be read as a ceiling on benchmark performance, not as evidence of clinical-grade accuracy. A model that scores 99 percent on 303 records from one 1980s-era clinic tells us very little about how it will behave in a modern, demographically diverse hospital.</p>
<p>Worse, several of the eye-popping figures show telltale signs of methodological trouble. The survey highlights one instructive case in which a deep model reported 96 percent training accuracy against only 88 percent test accuracy on the same pooled dataset—an eight-point gap consistent with overfitting. The review identifies three common culprits behind implausibly high results: applying oversampling techniques like SMOTE before rather than after the train-test split, which leaks synthetic near-duplicates of test cases into training; repeatedly tuning hyperparameters against the same held-out fold; and evaluating on small, manually curated test sets. As a practical heuristic, the survey recommends treating any accuracy above roughly 95 percent on a dataset of a few hundred records with scepticism until the leakage-control procedures have been verified.</p>
<p>The survey is equally candid about explainability. While SHAP, LIME, and Grad-CAM produce explanations that look plausible to technically literate readers, not a single reviewed study conducted a prospective, clinician-in-the-loop evaluation measuring whether these explanations actually change diagnostic decisions, calibrate trust appropriately, or improve patient outcomes. Post-hoc explanations, the author notes, do not verify that a model&#8217;s internal reasoning aligns with clinical pathophysiology—a plausible-looking explanation can coexist with a model that has learned a spurious shortcut. Explainability, in other words, is a necessary but not sufficient condition for clinical trust.</p>
<p>On the systems side, the review charts a shift from episodic to continuous cardiac monitoring. Wearable ECG patches, smartwatches, and photoplethysmography sensors now enable ambulatory arrhythmia detection, and CNN-integrated electronic stethoscopes built on Raspberry Pi hardware have screened for valvular disease with 99.35 percent benchmark accuracy. Federated learning, which trains models across hospitals without sharing raw patient data, offers a privacy-preserving route to multi-institutional generalisation, with federated models approaching centralised performance within 2 to 5 percent. But the survey flags unresolved problems: performance degrades when data distributions differ across sites, and the differential-privacy noise added to protect patients trades off directly against accuracy. Fairness audits show that bias-mitigation techniques reduce but do not eliminate differential performance across sex, age, and race—and subgroup performance is rarely reported at all.</p>
<p>Looking forward, the author judges multimodal fusion and federated learning to hold the greatest near-term potential, because both build on data infrastructure health systems already generate, while foundation models pre-trained on tens of millions of ECGs and images represent the biggest long-term bet. Causal inference, digital twins, and continual learning remain earlier-stage. The most urgent need, however, is deceptively simple: randomised controlled trials demonstrating that AI-assisted cardiac diagnosis actually reduces mortality, hospitalisation, and cost compared with standard care. With three-quarters of cardiovascular deaths occurring in low- and middle-income countries where specialist access is scarce, the stakes of getting this right could hardly be higher. The algorithms, this survey makes clear, are ready to be tested—the evidence base simply is not yet ready to be trusted.</p>
<p><strong>Subject of Research:</strong> Machine learning, deep learning, and explainable AI methods for detecting cardiovascular disease</p>
<p><strong>Article Title:</strong> A comprehensive survey of machine and deep learning as well as explainable artificial intelligence approaches for heart disease detection</p>
<p><strong>Article References:</strong> Ansary, M. S. (2026). A comprehensive survey of machine and deep learning as well as explainable artificial intelligence approaches for heart disease detection. <em>Discover Informatics, 1</em>(1), Article 17. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s44564-026-00019-w" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://doi.org/10.1007/s44564-026-00019-w</a></p>
<p><strong>Image Credits:</strong> AI Generated</p>
<p><strong>DOI:</strong> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s44564-026-00019-w" rel="noopener noreferrer">10.1007/s44564-026-00019-w</a></p>
<p><strong>Keywords:</strong> heart disease detection, cardiovascular disease, machine learning, deep learning, explainable AI, SHAP, ECG classification, XGBoost, transformers, federated learning, clinical decision support, overfitting</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">210189</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>AI Learns From Its Own Past to Sharpen Graph Neural Networks</title>
		<link>https://scienmag.com/ai-learns-from-its-own-past-to-sharpen-graph-neural-networks/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cassandra Pierce]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Sep 2026 21:48:50 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Technology and Engineering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[data mining and knowledge discovery in graph models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deep learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[generalization challenges in GNNs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[graph data applications in finance and science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[graph neural network training techniques]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Graph Neural Networks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[improving GNN robustness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[innovative methods in graph machine learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[knowledge distillation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Machine learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[memory augmentation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[memory-augmented self-distillation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[neural network history learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[node classification]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[overfitting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[overfitting in graph models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oversmoothing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[regularization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[relationship-based data analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[self-distillation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[self-learning in machine learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taking]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://scienmag.com/?p=198856</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Researchers have developed a memory-augmented self-distillation framework that boosts graph neural network accuracy by 2.5 to 6 percent across benchmark datasets.]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Graph neural networks have become one of the most powerful tools in modern machine learning for making sense of data that lives in relationships rather than rows of a spreadsheet. From detecting money laundering in Bitcoin transaction networks to classifying scientific papers by their citation patterns, these models excel at learning from graphs, the mathematical structures that capture how entities connect. Yet despite their success, graph neural networks carry a persistent weakness that has frustrated researchers for years: they overfit. A model that performs brilliantly on the data it was trained on can falter badly when confronted with nodes it has never seen, undermining the very generalization that makes graph learning valuable in the real world.</p>
<p>A new study published in Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery by Saurabh Sharma and Joydeep Chandra of the Indian Institute of Technology Patna, together with Souvik Chowdhury of Jadavpur University, proposes an elegant way out of this trap. Their approach, called Memory Augmented Self Distillation, teaches a graph neural network to learn from its own history. Rather than relying on a separate, fully trained teacher model to guide a smaller student, the framework builds a memory of the network&#8217;s past states and draws on that stored knowledge to regularize and refine its current training. The result is a measurable improvement of 2.5 to 6 percent in accuracy across a range of benchmark datasets compared with existing graph neural network training and self-distillation methods.</p>
<p>To understand why this matters, it helps to look at the technique the new method builds upon: knowledge distillation. First popularized by Geoffrey Hinton and colleagues in 2015, knowledge distillation is a compression and regularization strategy in which a large, well-trained teacher network transfers its knowledge to a smaller student network. The student learns not only from the ground-truth labels but also from the teacher&#8217;s softer, richer output distributions, which encode subtle information about how confident the teacher is and which classes resemble one another. In domains like computer vision and natural language processing, distillation has become a standard tool for building compact, robust models.</p>
<p>Applying distillation to graph neural networks, however, has proven surprisingly difficult. The core obstacle is a phenomenon known as oversmoothing. Graph neural networks learn by passing messages along edges, allowing each node to aggregate information from its neighbors. When the network is deep, this repeated aggregation causes the representations of all nodes to converge toward indistinguishable similarity, effectively washing out the distinctive features that make classification possible. A teacher graph neural network that has been trained to convergence may therefore produce representations that are smooth but information-poor, offering the student little of value to learn from. Conventional teacher-student distillation, so effective elsewhere, struggles to deliver meaningful guidance in the graph setting.</p>
<p>Self-distillation, in which a network serves as its own teacher, sidesteps the need for a separate teacher but runs into a different problem: the information bottleneck. Because the student and the teacher share the same architecture and training data, the knowledge available to transfer is limited by what the model already contains. Without an external source of diverse information, self-distillation can become an echo chamber, reinforcing the model&#8217;s existing biases rather than correcting them. Previous efforts to make graph distillation work have explored multi-teacher setups, adversarial distillation, and structure-aware multilayer perceptrons, but each carries its own computational or methodological trade-offs.</p>
<p>The framework introduced by Sharma, Chowdhury, and Chandra takes a fundamentally different route. Instead of a single teacher or a fixed set of teachers, the method constructs a memory bank that captures diverse snapshots of the learning process as it unfolds. These memory entries act as multiple, heterogeneous knowledge sources drawn from the student model&#8217;s own trajectory through training. Because each snapshot reflects a different stage of learning, the memory collectively encodes a richer and more varied body of knowledge than any single model state could offer, directly addressing the information bottleneck that plagues conventional self-distillation.</p>
<p>The crucial question then becomes which of these stored sources the network should listen to at any given moment. Listening to a poorly trained early snapshot could mislead the model, while relying exclusively on the most recent state would recreate the echo chamber problem. The researchers solve this with a competency-based knowledge source selection mechanism. This mechanism dynamically evaluates how competent each memory source is relative to the current learning objective and selects the most pertinent one for distillation at each step. In effect, the network continuously asks which of its past selves has the most useful lesson to teach, and adapts its supervision accordingly. This adaptive selection transforms the memory from a static archive into an active, evolving curriculum.</p>
<p>The technical payoff of this design is twofold. First, the distillation signal from competent memory sources acts as a powerful regularizer, discouraging the network from drifting into the overconfident, overfit solutions that plague graph learning on limited labeled data. Second, because the memory sources are diverse, the student is exposed to a broader distribution of knowledge than it could generate on its own, improving the quality of its learned representations. The authors demonstrate these gains across multiple benchmark datasets, including widely used citation networks such as Cora, Citeseer, and Pubmed, as well as graph kernel benchmarks and an elliptic Bitcoin transaction dataset used for anti-money laundering research, where only a subset of classes was analyzed for the experiments.</p>
<p>The evaluation methodology reflects careful statistical practice, with paired t-tests used to establish the significance of the improvements over baseline methods. The comparisons span the landscape of graph neural network architectures, including graph convolutional networks, graph attention networks, and jumping knowledge networks, alongside recent distillation frameworks designed specifically for graphs. The consistency of the accuracy gains across datasets and architectures suggests that the benefit stems from the underlying principle of memory-augmented self-supervision rather than from tuning to any particular benchmark. The final student models also exhibited better generalization, retaining their performance advantages when evaluated beyond the training distribution.</p>
<p>Beyond the immediate results, the study points toward a broader shift in how researchers think about the training of graph-based models. The idea that a model&#8217;s own training history is a resource worth preserving and mining is a departure from the standard paradigm in which intermediate states are discarded the moment a new set of weights is computed. It resonates with a simple intuition: lessons from the past, properly curated, can guide better decisions in the present. For graph neural networks, whose vulnerability to overfitting and oversmoothing has limited the depth and reliability of the models practitioners can deploy, that intuition now has concrete, quantified support. As graph learning continues to expand into finance, chemistry, recommendation systems, and network security, techniques like Memory Augmented Self Distillation could become a standard component of the training pipeline, helping models not only to learn from data but to learn from themselves.</p>
<p><strong>Subject of Research:</strong> A memory-augmented self-distillation framework for improving the generalization of graph neural networks</p>
<p><strong>Article Title:</strong> Taking lessons from history: Memory Augmented Self Distillation for graph neural networks</p>
<p><strong>Article References:</strong> Taking lessons from history: Memory Augmented Self Distillation for graph neural networks. (n.d.). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10618-026-01258-z" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10618-026-01258-z</a></p>
<p><strong>Image Credits:</strong> AI Generated</p>
<p><strong>DOI:</strong> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10618-026-01258-z" rel="noopener noreferrer">10.1007/s10618-026-01258-z</a></p>
<p><strong>Keywords:</strong> graph neural networks, knowledge distillation, self-distillation, overfitting, oversmoothing, memory augmentation, node classification, regularization, deep learning, machine learning, Taking, lessons</p>
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