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	<title>MedMnist &#8211; Science</title>
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	<title>MedMnist &#8211; Science</title>
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		<title>Confident but Wrong: Why Accurate Medical AI Can Still Mislead Doctors</title>
		<link>https://scienmag.com/confident-but-wrong-why-accurate-medical-ai-can-still-mislead-doctors/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Blake Davidson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Oct 2026 00:19:08 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Technology and Engineering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[challenges in deploying AI for clinical decision-making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[clinical decision support]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[clinical trust in AI diagnostics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ConvNeXt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deep learning architectures for medical image classification]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ensemble deep learning models for healthcare]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ensemble learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ensemble strategies in medical AI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[evaluation of AI confidence levels in medicine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Expected Calibration Error]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[importance of model probability calibration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[medical AI calibration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[medical image classification]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MedMnist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MedMNIST benchmark datasets for medical AI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[model calibration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[neural network calibration methods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[predictive entropy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[predictive uncertainty in medical imaging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risks of overconfidence in AI diagnostics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[soft voting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stacked generalization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[uncertainty quantification]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vision Transformers]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://scienmag.com/?p=232714</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[A new study of ensemble deep learning on medical image benchmarks shows that the most accurate models are rarely the best calibrated, and argues that uncertainty and calibration must guide clinical deployment.]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In medical imaging, a prediction that is right is not automatically a prediction that can be trusted. A deep learning model that declares a skin lesion benign with 99 percent confidence is clinically very different from one that flags the same lesion as uncertain, even if both end up on the correct side of the diagnostic line. Yet most benchmarks that rank artificial intelligence systems for medical image classification score them on discrimination alone, ignoring whether their stated probabilities actually mean what they claim. A new study published in Neural Computing and Applications confronts that blind spot directly, arguing that calibration and the structure of predictive uncertainty deserve equal billing with accuracy when ensemble methods are judged for clinical use.</p>
<p>The research, conducted by Hrushikesh Sanap, an independent researcher based in Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, India, evaluates four architecturally diverse deep networks alongside two ensemble strategies across four datasets drawn from the MedMNIST v2 benchmark collection. The individual models span the modern computer vision landscape: ConvNeXt-Base, a convolutional network redesigned with contemporary training recipes; Vision Transformer Base, an attention-based architecture that treats image patches as sequences; EfficientNetV2-M, a compact and efficient convolutional family; and InceptionResNetV2, an older but still competitive hybrid of inception modules and residual connections. All four were fine-tuned from ImageNet pre-trained weights at a resolution of 224 by 224 pixels, a deliberately realistic setting for clinical pipelines where computational budgets matter.</p>
<p>The four tasks were chosen to cover a spread of modalities, class counts and imbalance regimes. BloodMNIST requires eight-class classification of blood cell microscopy images and is close to saturation in the literature. BreastMNIST is a binary malignancy detection problem on breast ultrasound, and notably the smallest dataset in the study. DermaMNIST involves seven-class dermatoscopic lesion classification with pronounced class imbalance, and OrganAMNIST asks models to identify one of eleven abdominal organs on computed tomography slices. Every trained configuration exceeded the previously reported benchmark accuracy on all four datasets, with margins ranging from a fraction of a percentage point on the near-saturated blood cell task to roughly fifteen percentage points on the dermatoscopy data.</p>
<p>Two ensemble strategies were then layered on top. Soft Voting simply averages the predicted probabilities of the member networks, a technique with roots stretching back to foundational work on neural network ensembles in 1990. Rigorous Stacking, by contrast, trains a meta-learner on the outputs of the base models, following the stacked generalization framework introduced by David Wolpert in 1992. The ensembles matched or exceeded the strongest individual model in almost every case, with a single exception: Rigorous Stacking on the small BreastMNIST set, where the meta-learner presumably lacked enough data to learn reliable combination weights.</p>
<p>The central and most striking finding is that accuracy and calibration are dissociated. Calibration, measured here through reliability diagrams and the expected calibration error, asks whether a model&#8217;s stated confidence matches its empirical hit rate: of all the cases a model labels with 80 percent confidence, roughly 80 percent should actually be correct. Across the experiments, the most accurate configuration was rarely the best calibrated. Soft Voting attained the lower expected calibration error on all four datasets and the higher accuracy on three of them, while the accuracy advantage of Rigorous Stacking was confined to the most imbalanced dataset, DermaMNIST, and even there it came at the cost of weaker, less usable probabilities. Overconfidence, a well-documented pathology of modern neural networks, proved pervasive among the individual models and was reduced, but not eliminated, by ensembling.</p>
<p>Predictive uncertainty was quantified through the Shannon entropy of each prediction&#8217;s probability distribution, comparing the entropy distributions of correct against incorrect answers. Throughout the experiments, incorrect predictions sat at higher entropy than correct ones, which is the essential precondition for confidence-based triage, the practice of routing uncertain cases to human experts while letting confident, correct predictions pass through automatically. But the study adds a crucial caveat: a strong aggregate calibration score can still mask a collapsed, non-informative per-prediction uncertainty distribution. In other words, a model can look well calibrated on average while being nearly useless at telling clinicians which individual cases deserve scrutiny. Soft Voting held the most consistent separation between the entropy distributions of correct and incorrect predictions, reinforcing its case as the dependable default.</p>
<p>Interpretability analyses using gradient-weighted class activation mapping for the convolutional models and attention-based methods for the transformer complemented the quantitative results, and the residual errors clustered at clinically recognized decision boundaries. In dermatoscopy, the melanoma-to-nevus distinction remained the dominant failure mode, and even the largest accuracy gain left roughly a quarter of melanomas assigned to the benign nevus category. In breast ultrasound, the dangerous errors were malignant false negatives, the cases where a cancer is waved through as benign. In abdominal CT, the models struggled with kidney laterality, a reminder that spatial reasoning failures can persist even when overall organ identification accuracy looks impressive.</p>
<p>The practical implications are pointed. The study argues that post-hoc calibration should be treated as a prerequisite for safe deployment rather than an optional refinement, and that ensemble methods for medical imaging should be evaluated on calibration and uncertainty structure as much as on discrimination accuracy. For hospitals and regulators weighing which systems to trust, this reframes the leaderboard: a marginally less accurate but better calibrated ensemble that knows when it does not know may save more lives than a sharper classifier that is confidently wrong at the worst moments. The finding that simple probability averaging outperformed a learned stacking layer on calibration, while costing almost nothing in accuracy, is a rare case of the cheaper and simpler option also being the safer one.</p>
<p>The author is careful to delineate the limits of the evidence. All results derive from single-source benchmark data at 224 by 224 resolution, from a single training run under one fixed random seed, so run-to-run variance and dataset shift remain untested. Higher-resolution inputs and prospective external validation on real clinical data are flagged as the necessary next steps toward deployment. The datasets themselves are publicly available through the MedMNIST v2 collection, and the model prediction outputs, ensemble implementation and evaluation code have been released in an open GitHub repository, allowing independent verification of the per-class, entropy and reliability values underlying the analysis. For a field racing to put diagnostic AI in front of patients, the message is uncomfortable but timely: before asking how often a model is right, ask whether it knows the difference between knowing and guessing.</p>
<p><strong>Subject of Research:</strong> Calibration and uncertainty quantification in multi-architecture deep learning ensembles for medical image classification on MedMNIST benchmarks</p>
<p><strong>Article Title:</strong> Beyond accuracy: calibration and uncertainty in multi-architecture ensembles for MedMNIST classification</p>
<p><strong>Article References:</strong> Sanap, H. (2026). Beyond accuracy: calibration and uncertainty in multi-architecture ensembles for MedMNIST classification. <em>Neural Computing and Applications, 38</em>(19), Article 776. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-026-12521-1" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-026-12521-1</a></p>
<p><strong>Image Credits:</strong> AI Generated</p>
<p><strong>DOI:</strong> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-026-12521-1" rel="noopener noreferrer">10.1007/s00521-026-12521-1</a></p>
<p><strong>Keywords:</strong> medical image classification, ensemble learning, model calibration, uncertainty quantification, MedMNIST, expected calibration error, vision transformers, ConvNeXt, soft voting, stacked generalization, predictive entropy, clinical decision support</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">232714</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Hinton&#8217;s Forward-Forward Algorithm Gets a Hyper-Parameter Tune-Up That Closes the Accuracy Gap</title>
		<link>https://scienmag.com/hintons-forward-forward-algorithm-gets-a-hyper-parameter-tune-up-that-closes-the-accuracy-gap/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Blake Davidson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Sep 2026 21:52:25 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Technology and Engineering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AI research advancements]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[alternative AI training methods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Artificial Intelligence Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[automated hyper-parameter tuning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[back-propagation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[backpropagation limitations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deep learning algorithm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[error signal propagation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fashion-MNIST]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forward-forward algorithm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geoffrey Hinton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hyper-parameter optimization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Machine learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MedMnist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[memory constraints in AI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[memory efficiency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[metaheuristics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[neural network optimization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[neural network training]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[neural networks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[positive and negative data training]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tanta University]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://scienmag.com/?p=219250</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[A new study shows that automated metaheuristic hyper-parameter optimization substantially boosts the accuracy of Hinton's memory-efficient Forward-Forward training algorithm across six datasets.]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Deep learning has been built, almost without interruption, on a single computational habit: the backward pass. Since the popularization of back-propagation in the 1980s, neural networks have learned by pushing error signals backwards through their layers, a process that demands that every intermediate activation be stored during the forward pass so that gradients can be computed on the way back. That memory bill has become one of the defining constraints of modern artificial intelligence, shaping what can be trained and on what hardware. Now, a study published in Artificial Intelligence Review by Yomna Abdulgawad Elnady, Amany Mahmoud Sarhan and Mohammad Ali Eita of Tanta University in Egypt examines what happens when the backward pass is abandoned altogether, and shows that with the right automated tuning, the alternative can come surprisingly close to matching the incumbent.</p>
<p>The alternative in question is the Forward-Forward (FF) algorithm, introduced by Geoffrey Hinton, one of the founding figures of deep learning. Where back-propagation performs one forward pass to generate predictions and one backward pass to distribute blame, FF performs two forward passes. The first runs on positive, real data drawn from the training set; the second runs on negative data, which may be generated by the network itself. Each pass produces a measure of goodness at every layer, and layers are trained to assign high goodness to positive data and low goodness to negative data. Because no gradients need to flow backwards, activations do not need to be cached for a reverse sweep, and the memory footprint of training shrinks dramatically.</p>
<p>That memory efficiency is precisely what makes FF interesting for a particular and growing class of problems: training neural networks on low-resource hardware. Edge devices, embedded controllers and medical monitoring systems often cannot afford the memory overhead of back-propagation, which scales with the number of stored activations. FF&#8217;s two-pass structure, by contrast, opens the door to on-device learning without the same storage demands. The catch, as the Tanta University team documents across six diverse datasets, is that FF in its basic form lags behind back-propagation in predictive accuracy. The algorithm trades memory for performance, and until now that trade has been steep enough to keep it largely a research curiosity rather than a practical training method.</p>
<p>The new study attacks that gap not by redesigning the algorithm itself but by treating its configuration as an optimization problem in its own right. Neural network training is governed by a constellation of hyper-parameters, settings such as learning rates, layer configurations and goodness thresholds that are fixed before training begins and that can make the difference between a model that converges gracefully and one that stalls. In conventional practice these values are chosen by hand, guided by intuition and trial and error. The researchers instead deployed automated hyper-parameter optimization, using metaheuristic search algorithms, computational procedures inspired by natural processes that explore large configuration spaces far more systematically than manual tuning ever could.</p>
<p>The scope of the evaluation is notable. The team first assessed FF&#8217;s baseline performance across six diverse datasets to establish how the algorithm behaves in general. They then narrowed to four datasets for the optimization phase, applying two well-established metaheuristic algorithms alongside four state-of-the-art ones, a total of six search strategies competing to find the hyper-parameter settings that would squeeze the most performance out of FF. This comparative design matters, because the choice of optimizer for hyper-parameter search is itself a hyper-parameter of sorts, and the study&#8217;s structure allows the relative strength of different search strategies to be assessed on the same footing.</p>
<p>The results are striking. On Pneumonia-MedMnist, a medical imaging benchmark, validation accuracy rose from 93 percent to 97 percent after optimization. On Fashion-MNIST, a standard clothing-image classification set, accuracy climbed from 87 percent to 91 percent. The most dramatic gains appeared on the organ-segmentation datasets from the MedMnist collection: OrganC-MedMnist jumped from 82 percent to 94 percent, a twelve-point improvement, and OrganA-MedMnist rose from 88 percent to 95 percent. Crucially, these gains came while maintaining or even reducing training time, meaning the optimization did not simply buy accuracy by burning more compute. The study also reports that metaheuristic optimization accelerated convergence, allowing the networks to reach good solutions faster than they otherwise would.</p>
<p>Those numbers deserve unpacking, because they speak to a broader tension in machine learning research. The gap between memory efficiency and accuracy has long been framed as a fundamental trade-off: algorithms that avoid back-propagation&#8217;s memory bill pay for it in performance. What this study demonstrates is that at least part of that gap is not fundamental at all, but an artifact of under-tuned configuration. FF&#8217;s hyper-parameter space is evidently sensitive enough that default or manually chosen settings leave substantial performance on the table. When a systematic search is applied, much of that lost performance is recovered, in one case recovering nearly the entire distance to the sort of accuracy figures typically associated with conventionally trained networks on these benchmarks.</p>
<p>The technical explanation for why hyper-parameters matter so much to FF lies in its layered goodness objective. Because each layer is trained locally to discriminate positive from negative data, the overall behavior of the network emerges from the interaction of many local objectives rather than from a single global loss gradient. Small changes in threshold settings or layer-wise learning dynamics can therefore ripple through the network in ways that are hard to anticipate manually. Metaheuristic algorithms, which iteratively propose, evaluate and refine candidate solutions using mechanisms borrowed from processes such as evolution or swarm behavior, are well suited to navigating such rugged configuration landscapes, where the relationship between settings and outcomes is nonlinear and riddled with local optima.</p>
<p>The implications extend beyond a single algorithm. Interest in back-propagation-free training has grown as the field confronts the energy and memory costs of ever-larger models, and as researchers look to the brain, which clearly learns without any known reverse-phase error propagation, for inspiration. Hinton&#8217;s Forward-Forward proposal was framed partly in these terms, as a step toward learning procedures that might be more biologically plausible and more hardware-friendly. The Egyptian team&#8217;s contribution is to show that the practical viability of such procedures depends heavily on the surrounding optimization machinery, and that investing in automated tuning can transform a promising but underperforming idea into a competitive one.</p>
<p>For practitioners working at the edge, the message is concrete. Medical imaging tasks of the kind tested here, including pneumonia detection and organ identification, are exactly the workloads targeted at resource-constrained clinical hardware, and the demonstrated accuracy levels after optimization, reaching 94 to 97 percent validation accuracy on several benchmarks, suggest that memory-efficient training is approaching the point where it can be taken seriously for such applications. The study, published open access on 30 September 2026, received open access funding from Egypt&#8217;s Science, Technology and Innovation Funding Authority in cooperation with the Egyptian Knowledge Bank. Whether Forward-Forward can scale to the large architectures that dominate contemporary artificial intelligence remains an open question, but this work establishes that the algorithm&#8217;s accuracy deficit is neither fixed nor mysterious, and that the tools for closing it were already sitting in the metaheuristic toolbox.</p>
<p><strong>Subject of Research:</strong> Optimizing the Forward-Forward neural network training algorithm with metaheuristic hyper-parameter search</p>
<p><strong>Article Title:</strong> Towards optimized forward–forward training for neural networks</p>
<p><strong>Article References:</strong> Elnady, Y. A., Sarhan, A. M., &amp; Eita, M. A. (2026). Towards optimized forward–forward training for neural networks. <em>Artificial Intelligence Review, 59</em>(11), Article 232. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10462-026-11668-6" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10462-026-11668-6</a></p>
<p><strong>Image Credits:</strong> AI Generated</p>
<p><strong>DOI:</strong> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10462-026-11668-6" rel="noopener noreferrer">10.1007/s10462-026-11668-6</a></p>
<p><strong>Keywords:</strong> Forward-Forward algorithm, back-propagation, neural networks, metaheuristics, hyper-parameter optimization, Geoffrey Hinton, memory efficiency, machine learning, MedMnist, Fashion-MNIST, Tanta University, Artificial Intelligence Review</p>
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