FORECAST will build on Texas’s expanding wastewater-monitoring infrastructure, including the Texas Wastewater Environmental Biomonitoring Network, or TexWEB. The statewide network samples sewage from 15 Texas cities and analyzes biological material shed by communities. Unlike clinical surveillance, which depends on people seeking medical care and receiving diagnostic tests, wastewater epidemiology captures population-level signals from entire communities. Viral genetic fragments, bacterial DNA and other biological markers can appear in sewage before hospitals and clinics register a rise in patients, providing public health officials with valuable time to investigate and respond.

The program will use metagenomic surveillance, a technique that examines genetic material recovered from environmental samples rather than searching only for a predetermined pathogen. In conventional testing, laboratories typically use targeted molecular assays designed to detect a known virus or bacterium. Metagenomic sequencing can survey a much broader range of organisms, including variants and potentially unfamiliar pathogens. Researchers can then compare these signals with clinical data, geographic information and environmental measurements to determine whether changes in temperature, rainfall, flooding, drought or other conditions are associated with shifts in infectious disease activity.

The scientific goal is not simply to identify pathogens after they appear, but to uncover relationships between microbes and the environmental conditions that help them enter or circulate within human populations. Climate change can influence disease transmission through several pathways. Warmer temperatures may expand the geographic range or seasonal activity of mosquitoes and other vectors. Heavy rainfall and flooding can overwhelm sanitation systems and redistribute contaminants, while drought can alter water use and concentrate biological material. Changes in human behavior, animal movement and ecosystems may create additional opportunities for pathogens to cross species boundaries.

Maresso and his colleagues demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic that SARS-CoV-2 signals in wastewater could precede increases in clinically diagnosed infections. Viral RNA released in feces entered sewage systems, where researchers tracked changes in concentration over time. Although wastewater measurements cannot determine which individuals are infected, they can reveal whether pathogen activity is increasing or declining within a catchment area. The approach has since been extended to a wider range of targets, including avian influenza, measles, HIV and viruses associated with cancer. FORECAST aims to develop this surveillance capacity into a predictive climate-health platform.

Rice University climate scientist Dr. Sylvia Dee will help connect pathogen observations with weather and climate data. The team plans to examine whether specific environmental patterns consistently occur before increases in particular infectious agents. Such models could eventually function like a public health weather report, indicating when conditions are becoming more favorable for disease transmission. The researchers emphasize that predictive systems will require careful validation because the presence of pathogen genetic material does not necessarily indicate infectious virus, active transmission or a future outbreak. Interpreting the signal will require laboratory studies, clinical evidence and knowledge of local infrastructure.

The project will also investigate diseases transmitted by vectors such as mosquitoes. Dr. Peter Hotez and colleagues at the National School of Tropical Medicine will focus on vector-borne pathogen transmission and the growing health risks associated with changing climate conditions. Texas is particularly relevant for this work because it contains diverse ecological regions and experiences heat waves, hurricanes, flooding and rapid urban growth. These factors can affect mosquito habitats, human exposure and the movement of pathogens across communities. Integrating wastewater findings with vector surveillance could help reveal connections that would remain hidden if either system were used alone.

Education and public communication will form a central part of FORECAST. The team plans to create a “Middle to Medical” climate-health education track extending from middle school through medical training and professional development. Dr. Nancy Moreno, who developed Baylor’s BioEd online program, will lead educational efforts with Rice University’s Dr. Joseph Campana, director of the university’s Center for Environmental Studies and EcoStudio. The curriculum will explain how pathogens spread, how climate conditions alter disease risk and how scientific evidence can guide decisions by students, clinicians, policymakers and communities.

The award is particularly significant because FORECAST was selected as the sole funded project from 161 applications submitted to the new CHEX program. The initiative is intended to strengthen research, education and public engagement at the intersection of climate change and human health. Dr. Eric Boerwinkle, dean of the UT School of Public Health and a project co-investigator, will contribute access to large clinical datasets that can be used to evaluate wastewater and environmental signals against reported illnesses. The investigators say the work could improve outbreak preparedness while advancing the still-developing field of wastewater science.

By combining environmental sequencing with climate modeling and health education, FORECAST seeks to shift infectious disease surveillance from a largely reactive system toward earlier detection and prevention. Its findings may help officials recognize emerging threats before they produce widespread clinical disease, while also clarifying how environmental changes shape viral evolution, transmission and geographic spread. The researchers describe wastewater as an unusually candid public health resource: it aggregates biological information from a population without requiring individual testing. As climate pressures intensify, they argue, that collective signal could become an essential tool for protecting communities and preparing the next generation of scientists.

Subject of Research:
Climate-driven infectious disease emergence, wastewater epidemiology, metagenomic pathogen surveillance and climate-health education.

Article Title:
Texas Researchers Launch FORECAST Program to Link Climate Change With Emerging Viral Threats

Web References:
Baylor College of Medicine; Rice University; University of Texas School of Public Health; Burroughs Wellcome Fund; Texas Wastewater Environmental Biomonitoring Network (TexWEB).

References:
Information provided in the source news release concerning the FORECAST project, the Climate + Health Excellence award and TexWEB wastewater surveillance activities.

Keywords:
Wastewater epidemiology, viral surveillance, metagenomic sequencing, climate change, infectious diseases, pathogen emergence, public health, Texas, SARS-CoV-2, avian influenza, measles, vector-borne disease, climate health, epidemiology, wastewater science

C-ARCH is poised to leverage its team of climate and health scientists to forge meaningful partnerships with governments and communities around the globe. The focus of this collaboration will be twofold. First, they aim to rigorously investigate the specific ways in which climate extremes—such as heat waves, droughts, and flooding—negatively impact public health. Second, this team will engage in the design, deployment, and evaluation of evidence-based solutions aimed at preventing and mitigating these adverse health outcomes. This approach underscores the center’s commitment to not only understanding challenges but also mobilizing effective responses to those challenges.

What sets C-ARCH apart is its holistic perspective on adaptation—the understanding that communities need tailored solutions that respond directly to their unique circumstances. For instance, current interventions like early warning systems for extreme heat waves or the establishment of cooling shelters can be enhanced or modified to serve a broader spectrum of vulnerabilities. Furthermore, the center will work closely with local partners to craft new modalities that align with environmental, social, and economic realties, reinforcing the importance of adaptability in addressing climate-induced public health challenges.

Over the last two decades, Columbia Mailman has been a leader in the field of climate and health research. Their scientists have extensively documented connections between climate change phenomena and unintended health outcomes. From exploring the implications of extreme weather events on health vulnerabilities to analyzing the link between climate change and food insecurity, Columbia Mailman remains at the forefront of this critical research. They are uncovering the potential health impacts of wildfire smoke and the mental health repercussions associated with heightened temperatures, exemplifying the wide-ranging effects of an evolving climate on human well-being.

The establishment of C-ARCH is a logical progression from Columbia Mailman’s previous initiatives. The school has pioneered numerous efforts, including launching the first U.S. climate and health program in 2008 and creating the Global Center for Climate and Health Education (GCCHE) in 2017, which now boasts over 200 members from health professions schools globally. This history illustrates a sustained commitment to nurturing research and education on climate and health, making Columbia a preeminent hub for academic pursuit in this field. Moreover, the socio-political context surrounding climate change has intensified, necessitating that institutions of this caliber respond judiciously.

The launch of C-ARCH is further underscored by alarming findings from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. Their recent report confirmed that 2024 marked the first year global temperatures exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This milestone serves as a wake-up call, casting light on the drastic shifts already underway across the globe. With such irrefutable evidence pointing to the realities of climate change and its detrimental health effects, the urgency for innovative solutions becomes starkly apparent.

Kiros Berhane, PhD, and Darby Jack, PhD, will co-lead C-ARCH, bringing remarkable expertise and research experience in environmental health and public health policy. Their combined backgrounds will be instrumental in spearheading initiatives focused on understanding the complex relationship between climate stressors and health impacts. Berhane emphasizes the necessity of practical solutions, recognizing that societies must adapt to safeguard and improve public health effectively. Jack echoes this sentiment, envisioning a future where all communities, irrespective of their socio-economic status, can thrive despite the challenges posed by climate change.

The initial agenda for C-ARCH will revolve around pivotal research themes that encompass a broad array of issues. This includes designing strategies to identify causal pathways linking climate stressors to health outcomes and exploring the behavioral, mental health, and productivity impacts of climate change. By employing advanced data science tools, such as artificial intelligence, C-ARCH will derive actionable insights and develop practical solutions. Furthermore, recognizing the acute effects of climate change in low-income countries, the center aims to prioritize these regions in its research and collaborative outreach efforts.

Moreover, C-ARCH is not merely about research—it will also emphasize training and collaboration. The center plans to initiate a series of core activities designed to catalyze collective efforts. This will include a seminar series focused on emerging research, a pilot grants program to encourage innovative studies, and monthly meetings of faculty members to foster interdisciplinary collaboration across Columbia’s various health initiatives, such as CHART and GCCHE. These initiatives aim to create an inclusive research environment that not only advances scholarly inquiry but also reinforces community engagement.

Crucially, the nexus between climate change and public health demands a response that is informed by community voices. C-ARCH is committed to prioritizing marginalized populations that often bear the brunt of climate impacts. By not only identifying risks but also engaging these communities in resilience planning and response efforts, the center aligns its mission closely with the principles of equity and social justice. This focus will help ensure that interventions are designed not only from a scientific and technical perspective but grounded in the lived experiences and needs of affected populations.

Equipped with a roadmap for impact, C-ARCH is prepared to navigate the complexities of climate-induced health challenges. By harnessing the power of rigorous research and building sustainable community partnerships, the center aims to facilitate a broader understanding of resilience and health optimization amid a changing climate. The ultimate goal is a revolutionary shift in how we conceptualize public health in the era of climate change, focusing on prevention, preparation, and the empowerment of vulnerable communities.

As the climate crisis continues to escalate, C-ARCH represents a beacon of hope and innovation in the realm of public health. The establishment of this center underscores a collective commitment to advancing scientific inquiry and practical solutions that address climate-related health issues. Through its impactful research and dedicated collaborative efforts, C-ARCH will contribute significantly to fostering healthier and more resilient communities worldwide.

This is a time for action, a moment to harness the collective expertise of scientists, policymakers, and communities in the urgent quest for climate resilience. With the continued partnership of Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health and global stakeholders, C-ARCH will strive to ensure that human health is protected and enhanced, even as the realities of climate change unfold.

Through these endeavors, C-ARCH not only seeks to understand the implications of climate change but aims to transform that understanding into actionable strategies that safeguard public health for generations to come. The future of public health in the context of climate change remains uncertain, but with initiatives like C-ARCH at the forefront, there is hope for a healthier tomorrow.

Subject of Research: Climate Change and Public Health

Article Title: Columbia University Launches C-ARCH: A Global Solutions Lab for Climate and Health Resilience

News Publication Date: October 2023

Web References: N/A

References: N/A

Image Credits: N/A

Keywords: Climate Change, Public Health, C-ARCH, Columbia University, Environmental Health, Resilience, Research, Global Health