More than 280 registrants converged for the on-site event, complemented by a substantial digital audience exceeding 7,500 participants, reflecting the forum’s wide-ranging influence and the global community’s vested interest in China’s economic trajectory. Professor Hongbin CAI, Dean and Chair of Economics at HKU Business School and ICE Director, opened the forum by underscoring the enduring commitment of HKU Business School to rigorous economic research with a particular emphasis on China. Professor CAI emphasized the forum’s role as a catalyst for scholarly interaction and industrial collaboration, aiming to distill nuanced understandings of China’s evolving economic landscape, especially during periods marked by geopolitical uncertainty.

One of the keynote addresses by Professor Zhenhua MAO, a Practitioner Professor in Economics at HKU Business School and advisor to the HKSAR Chief Executive’s Policy Unit, provided a comprehensive evaluation of the impact of the US–Israel–Iran conflict on China’s economy. Contrary to expectations of pronounced disruption, Professor MAO pointed out that China’s domestic industrial output remains robust, buoyed by vigorous investment inflows into artificial intelligence and other high-technology sectors. This sustained growth in technology-driven industries functions as a stabilizing force, buffering the economy against external shocks. Additionally, proactive infrastructure spending and early adoption of central macroeconomic policies have successfully mitigated the contraction risks associated with global instability.

The keynote elaboration extended to analyze China’s export dynamics amid these geopolitical disturbances. While recognizing the dampening effect of volatile external demand and the cost implications of disrupted shipping routes, Professor MAO highlighted China’s resilient and comprehensive industrial base. This resilience enables China to effectively absorb redirected global orders, a phenomenon that offsets some adverse trade pressures. A striking observation concerned the accelerated trend toward de-dollarization in global trade settlements, with the renminbi surpassing the euro in Middle Eastern oil trade settlements in March 2026, positioning it as the world’s second most dominant settlement currency after the US dollar.

Hong Kong’s financial markets emerged as a beacon of stability within this turbulent context. Professor MAO noted an upsurge in capital inflows from Middle Eastern investors who view Hong Kong as a safe harbor amid regional instability. This renewed confidence is manifested in growing inquiries and investments in Hong Kong equities and the expansion of family office structures. Hong Kong’s continued role as a “super-connector” serves not only the local economy but also strengthens its position within the broader global financial ecosystem by fostering capital mobility and risk diversification.

Expanding on the macroeconomic policy narrative, Professor Xianhai HUANG of Zhejiang University addressed the imperative for China’s economy to expedite the transition between fading traditional growth engines and emergent drivers. He proposed the establishment of a third macroeconomic policy pillar focused explicitly on innovation-led development, complementing existing fiscal and monetary tools. This policy pillar would encompass government-backed innovation funds, a robust venture capital ecosystem, technology-centric financial instruments, differentiated intellectual property protections, and incentive mechanisms that directly link researchers with entrepreneurial activities. Professor HUANG’s framework anticipates positioning China at the forefront of technological advancements globally while accelerating the transformation of its industrial export structure.

The discourse also spotlighted the metamorphosis of China’s industrial composition, with the automotive sector surpassing real estate as an economic mainstay. The proliferation of the so-called “new trio”—new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic components—and the emergent “new new trio” industries encompassing biotechnology, robotics, and drone technology, underscores China’s strategic pivot toward innovation and high-tech manufacturing. A shift away from cost competitiveness toward innovation-driven electromechanical products has redefined China’s export profile, signaling a maturation of its industrial economy.

Professor Richard Weixing HU from the University of Macau contributed a reflective analysis on the international trade landscape, particularly the implications of the 2026 APEC China Year. He articulated the growing tension between the United States’ trade paradigm, which emphasizes reciprocity and strategic competition, and the multilateral free trade framework championed by China and its allies. This divergence not only complicates bilateral trade but also reshapes the geopolitical architecture in the Asia-Pacific region. Professor HU advocates for a synthesis of these competing logics to evolve the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) concept through innovative institutional arrangements and policy innovation.

Maritime transport, a critical vector of global trade, has not been spared the conflict’s impact. Mr. Xianxiang YANG, Chairman of SITC International Holdings, delineated the operational challenges in international shipping resulting from the US–Israel–Iran war. The Persian Gulf remains a hotspot with significant disruptions, including vessel delays and supply constraints. Mounting fuel prices have escalated operational expenses, intensifying financial strain on shipping companies and potentially inducing ripple effects throughout global supply chains.

The forum culminated in a dynamic roundtable discussion moderated by Professor Hongbin CAI, featuring leaders and experts spanning finance, investment, and economic policy. The panel examined the multifaceted economic outlook grappling with geopolitical volatility. Consensus emerged around China’s economic fortitude and adaptability amidst external uncertainties. The dialogue encompassed critical topics such as the renminbi’s exchange rate dynamics, bilateral trade tensions, sector-specific growth differentials, and evolving consumption patterns influenced by inflationary trends. Notably, the panel identified unconventional indicators like inbound tourism patterns and the sports economy as proxy measures for gauging broader economic health and consumer confidence.

By convening leading minds across academia and industry, the 10th HKU Quarterly Forum on Chinese Economy offered a panoramic view of the geopolitical and economic shifts shaping China’s future. The forum not only highlighted the challenges wrought by escalating tensions but also illuminated pathways for resilience through innovation, strategic policy recalibration, and enhanced international cooperation. As geopolitical fault lines continue to realign, such intellectual forums remain indispensable for distilling insights that inform adaptive strategies in China and beyond.

Subject of Research: The impact of geopolitical tensions in the US–Israel–Iran conflict on the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong economies, including macroeconomic policy, trade dynamics, and innovation-driven economic transformation.

Article Title: Resilience Amidst Turmoil: Navigating China’s Economic Landscape During the US–Israel–Iran Conflict

News Publication Date: April 23, 2026

Web References: HKU Business School Website

Image Credits: The University of Hong Kong

Keywords: Chinese economy, geopolitical conflict, US–Israel–Iran war, macroeconomic policy, innovation economy, renminbi internationalization, Hong Kong capital markets, global trade, maritime transport, de-dollarization, Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), economic resilience

Professor Hongbin Cai, Dean and Chair of Economics at HKU Business School and Director of ICE, inaugurated the forum with a keynote addressing the significance of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan amidst a dynamically shifting global economic order. He underscored the renewed relevance of the HKU Quarterly Forum in contextualizing China’s strategies for navigating external geopolitical disruptions while galvanizing internal growth drivers to sustain economic stability. Professor Cai emphasized that open dialogue and diverse perspectives remain central to the initiative, reinforcing its role as a bridge connecting Hong Kong, Mainland China, and the international community through rigorous academic inquiry and applied research.

Highlighting the keynote theme, Professor Zhenhua Mao presented an incisive analysis entitled “2026: Seeking Double Breakthroughs of China’s Economy.” Mao’s report painted a nuanced picture of China’s economic condition: while external trade, high-technology manufacturing sectors, and capital markets demonstrated resilience, domestic demand was subdued, and consumer price indices underperformed relative to forecasts. This dichotomy, Mao argued, necessitates a dual focus on stimulating internal consumption and leveraging technological innovation as catalysts for robust and balanced economic momentum.

Central to Mao’s thesis was the imperative to bolster domestic demand, strategically aligning it with advancements in technology to drive consumer price indices upwards, ensuring healthier economic growth metrics. He further advocated for an open economic posture and expedited efforts towards global market expansion, positioning China to redefine its role and influence on the world stage. Mao articulated Hong Kong’s unique strategic advantage as a logistical and financial “bridgehead” for Chinese enterprises’ global ventures, underlining the city’s critical function in facilitating international business linkages.

The dialogue on technology-driven transformation continued with Professor Qifeng Liu’s keynote titled “Seven Questions about AI.” Liu candidly assessed the competitive dynamics between China and the United States in artificial intelligence development. He highlighted China’s leadership in open-source AI models, particularly noting Qwen’s advanced capabilities, while acknowledging a technology gap of approximately six months relative to the U.S. Liu also differentiated the stark contrast in corporate and venture capital investment magnitude, which favors the U.S. by orders of magnitude. His insights underscored the importance of feedback-driven Agentic AI systems to mitigate current industrial bottlenecks caused by limited interactive data within enterprises.

Moreover, Liu emphasized optimal utilization of China’s underleveraged computational resources, which can satisfy the demanding requirements for large-scale data generation and training of AI models, thereby unlocking vast untapped industrial potential. Advocating for a sustainable AI ecosystem, he stressed the criticality of intellectual property protection, encouragement of open-source innovation, and prevention of monopolistic practices. Liu’s foresight encourages a paradigm in which collaboration across industry, academia, and research institutions fuels robust AI development.

Education and human creativity, Liu argued, must adapt alongside rapid AI advancement. He urged students and educators to pivot from traditional learning focused on procedural “how” questions towards deeper inquiry into “why,” enhancing critical thinking. Liu projected that disciplines such as management and linguistics will garner increasing importance as essential competence areas enabling humans to effectively engage with and direct Agentic AI, ensuring augmented rather than replaced intelligence.

Insights into currency and finance were contributed by Professor Xiang Fang, Assistant Professor in Finance at HKU Business School, who delivered an in-depth presentation titled “RMB Exchange Rate: Market Forces, Policy, and Prospects.” Fang dissected the complex interplay between market-driven factors and government policy mechanisms influencing the Renminbi’s valuation. He explored the central parity rate system, explicating its operational frameworks and impacts on exchange rate stability. Prospective scenarios for RMB movements were analyzed in the context of China’s economic recalibrations and external trade pressures.

Anchoring the forum’s collaborative spirit was a robust roundtable moderated by Professor Hongbin Cai, featuring prominent figures including Mr. Zhitang Chen, President of the Hong Kong Alumni Association of Central University of Finance and Economics, and senior economists from China’s leading financial institutions. The discussion oriented around critical themes such as RMB appreciation potential, Sino-American competition in AI technologies, trajectories of consumer price indices, evolving China-US bilateral relations, and developments in Hong Kong’s digital currency markets. This multidisciplinary engagement illuminated the intersection of economic and technological forces shaping the year ahead.

The robust exchanges at the forum underscore China’s economic and technological prospects in 2026, a year defined by external uncertainties and pressing internal reforms. The collective insights indicate that China’s trajectory will hinge on harmonizing innovative technologies with consumer demand stimulation and maintaining openness to global integration. Hong Kong’s role emerges as a pivotal conduit in this transformation, leveraging its financial and institutional strengths to bridge Mainland China’s ambitions with international markets and knowledge networks.

In conclusion, the 9th HKU Quarterly Forum on Chinese Economy epitomizes the criticality of academic and industry collaboration in elucidating China’s macroeconomic challenges and opportunities. The forum’s focus on double breakthroughs—economic revitalization and technological innovation—signals a roadmap for sustainable growth amidst a complex international milieu. By fostering dialogue among thought leaders and practitioners, this forum contributes significantly to shaping informed policies and strategies integral to China’s socio-economic development and global positioning.

The forum’s success reflects a concerted institutional commitment by HKU Business School’s Institute of China Economy to serve society through impactful research and knowledge dissemination. As China continues to implement its 15th Five-Year Plan priorities, insights generated from such expert convenings will be vital to navigating the converging challenges and seizing new prosperity avenues. The encompassing conversations at the forum highlight the integral linkages between economic policy, technology progress, and global cooperation essential for China’s future trajectory.

Subject of Research: Chinese Economy, Macroeconomic Trends, Artificial Intelligence, RMB Exchange Rate, Sino-US Economic Relations

Article Title: Navigating China’s 2026 Economic Landscape: Insights from the 9th HKU Quarterly Forum on Chinese Economy

News Publication Date: January 29, 2026

Web References: HKU Quarterly Forum on Chinese Economy – High-resolution Photos

Image Credits: The University of Hong Kong

Keywords: Social sciences, Economics, Chinese economy, Artificial intelligence, RMB exchange rate, Sino-US relations, Technological innovation, Consumer price index, Macroeconomic stability