Utilizing a spatially explicit, sub-watershed-level analysis, this research integrates hydrological modeling with socio-economic data, particularly insurance claim records from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). By correlating changes in upstream wetland extent with the magnitude of downstream flood insurance payouts, the study isolates the impact of wetland loss on flood severity while controlling for confounding variables such as antecedent local precipitation and intrinsic flood exposure of affected properties. This methodological rigor allows for robust attribution of increased flood damages to wetland area reductions, advancing beyond prior assessments that predominantly offered qualitative or aggregate insights.

The quantification reveals that every hectare of wetland lost upstream corresponds to a 0.01% to 0.03% increase in residential flood claim payments downstream. While seemingly marginal per unit area, these increments aggregate to an unparalleled nationwide surge of $10.1 billion in NFIP claims, reflecting a 9% rise in flood-related payouts attributable to wetland decline over nearly four decades. Spatial variability is pronounced, with metropolitan Houston, southeastern Louisiana, and coastal Florida emerging as epicenters where wetland depletion translates into disproportionately amplified insurance costs, underscoring regional vulnerabilities rooted in both ecological and socio-economic factors.

A salient revelation of the study is the identification of wetland ecosystem services in measurable economic terms. In the top decile of sub-watersheds, each hectare of wetland conserves approximately $24,783 in residential flood damage annually. Astonishingly, the top one percentile of watersheds showcases values exceeding $301,268 per hectare, underscoring the immense protective benefits wetlands confer in critical hydrological contexts. This granular valuation equips policymakers and urban planners with concrete metrics to incorporate ecosystem services into infrastructural cost-benefit analyses and land-use decisions.

Beyond economic metrics, the research emphasizes equity dimensions of wetland loss impacts. Lower-income and predominantly non-white communities have disproportionately borne the brunt of amplified flood damages stemming from upstream wetland depletion. This intersectional insight highlights the urgency of integrating environmental justice considerations in conservation strategies and flood risk mitigation policies, ensuring vulnerable populations do not shoulder inequitable burdens of ecological degradation.

The scope of the study acknowledges limitations inherent in relying solely on NFIP data, which insures approximately 30% of total flood damages nationwide. By extrapolating to encompass uninsured losses and private insurance claims, the researchers estimate that the aggregate cost of flood damage attributable to historical wetland loss could exceed $33 billion since 1985. These figures starkly illustrate the expansive financial stakes tied to wetland conservation and restoration efforts, amplifying the imperative for proactive natural infrastructure management.

From a hydrological perspective, wetlands function analogously to sponges, absorbing substantial volumes of precipitation and surface runoff during storm events. This attenuation delays and diminishes flood peaks downstream, thereby mitigating property damage. Yet, persistent wetland conversion for development and agriculture continues apace, eroding these ecosystem services. The study’s findings make explicit the hidden costs of such land-use changes, reframing wetlands as critical assets whose depletion generates tangible, quantifiable economic consequences.

The authors also explore the policy implications of recent regulatory proposals, particularly the Trump Administration’s proposed revision to the federal “Waters of the United States” (WOTUS) definition. This redefinition threatens to exclude up to 91% of non-tidal wetlands from federal protection if they lack long-term surface water presence, potentially stripping vast tracts of wetlands from regulatory safeguards. The study estimates that these non-WOTUS wetlands, absent additional protection, provide flood mitigation services valued at approximately $177 billion for residential properties alone, signaling a profound risk of future unchecked losses in flood resilience.

Notably, the research underscores that the measured benefits of wetlands extend well beyond riverine flood mitigation for residences. Additional ecosystem services—such as biodiversity habitat, water quality enhancement, carbon sequestration, and recreational value—compound the societal benefits of wetland ecosystems. Including these factors would only magnify the economic imperative to preserve and restore wetlands as multifunctional landscapes vital to climate adaptation and environmental sustainability.

Consequently, this study delivers a clarion call to integrate wetland valuation comprehensively into federal and state decision-making frameworks. Whether informing benefit-cost analyses for infrastructure investments, refining flood insurance models to reflect natural flood defenses, or guiding targeted conservation financing through easements and acquisitions, the evidence-based quantification of wetlands’ flood risk reduction services is poised to reshape environmental governance paradigms.

As climate-induced flooding intensifies, and development strains hydrological systems, this pivotal research accentuates that restoring and protecting wetlands is neither a mere environmental ideal nor a marginal policy convenience. Instead, it constitutes a foundational strategy to curb economic losses, foster community resilience, and achieve equitable climate adaptation outcomes. The $10 billion increase in flood claims linked to wetland loss is an unequivocal economic signal—preserving nature’s infrastructure is essential for sustainable water resource management and disaster risk mitigation in the twenty-first century.

Subject of Research:
Article Title:
News Publication Date: June 1, 2026
Web References: https://www.nature.com/articles/s44221-026-00656-3
References: Environmental Defense Fund study published in Nature Water, June 2026
Image Credits:

Java Island’s intricate relationship with water has long shaped its geography, culture, and economy. However, this study, led by Virginia Tech geoscientist Manoochehr Shirzaei and team, shows that human activities deeply affecting the subsurface environment are accelerating land sinking at unprecedented rates. Utilizing state-of-the-art satellite radar interferometry combined with sophisticated machine learning algorithms, the research maps subsidence phenomena at an exceptional spatial resolution, revealing subsidence rates ranging from one to fifteen centimeters annually across various urban and rural landscapes. These rates significantly surpass the projected mean sea level rise globally within the same timeframe, signaling an alarming amplification of flood risk.

The root causes behind this rapid subsidence are multifaceted but converge on unsustainable extraction of groundwater, agricultural irrigation practices, and industrial resource use. In coastal deltaic environments, natural sediment compaction also contributes to land lowering, further compounding the problem. Groundwater withdrawal, in particular, was identified as a key driver, leading to the compaction of aquifer systems and soil layers, thereby triggering irreversible land loss. This insight underscores the importance of integrating hydrogeological dynamics into coastal risk assessments, an aspect often overlooked in traditional sea-level rise models.

One of the study’s most compelling findings is the projection that by the year 2050, land subsidence could constitute as much as 85 percent of the relative sea-level rise experienced along the majority of Java’s coastline. Such a disproportionate contribution radically shifts the understanding of future flooding scenarios and brings to light the critical role of land management policies. Additionally, over the next quarter-century, more than three-quarters of the island’s coastal edges are expected to experience flooding largely influenced by subsidence rather than oceanic conditions, further intensifying the vulnerabilities of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems.

Addressing the challenge of limited in-situ tide gauges and subsurface monitoring across Java, the researchers innovatively harnessed satellite data to establish a network of “virtual tide gauges” spaced every five kilometers along the coastline. This breakthrough methodology enables continuous, high-resolution monitoring of land elevation changes and relative sea-level trends without dependence on conventional ground stations, which are often sparse or absent in developing regions. Such technological advancement opens new frontiers for subsidence surveillance worldwide, particularly in similarly vulnerable but data-poor coastal zones.

The interplay between global climate factors and local anthropogenic activities unleashed a complex threat to Java’s coastal resilience. While ocean waters undeniably rise due to thermal expansion and melting ice caps, the accelerated sinking of landmass due to groundwater extraction injects a powerful multiplier effect into flood risks. This dual mechanism demands nuanced policy interventions that marry global emissions reductions with localized resource management strategies, emphasizing sustainable water use, groundwater recharge initiatives, and infrastructural adjustments to accommodate both components.

The implications of the Java case study extend far beyond Indonesia’s shores. Globally, millions of inhabitants occupy deltas, estuaries, and coastal lowlands where the delicate balance between land elevation and sea level is fragile and susceptible to human impacts. The study’s lead author Leonard Ohenhen, a former Virginia Tech graduate now at the University of California, Irvine, cautions that Java’s experience could foreshadow emerging crises elsewhere if land subsidence remains under-recognized and unstewarded. Regions facing similar hydrogeological and developmental pressures will likely encounter compounded flood hazards if proactive monitoring and mitigation efforts are not established promptly.

Conventional approaches to climate adaptation often prioritize mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and designing infrastructure for anticipated sea-level rise. However, this research advocates for a critical extension of such frameworks to incorporate active land subsidence management. Unlike global warming, subsidence is largely a localized, actionable phenomenon that can be influenced through policy reforms, sustainable groundwater governance, and technological interventions such as artificial aquifer recharge and improved land-use planning. This realization offers a vital lever for enhancing coastal resilience in a tangible and cost-effective manner.

The study not only advances scientific understanding but also delivers an urgent message to policymakers, urban planners, and resource managers. Addressing land subsidence requires cross-sector collaboration, encompassing water resource management, urban development regulation, and environmental conservation. The fusion of satellite remote sensing and data science demonstrated in the study provides valuable tools to inform decision-making, monitor the success of interventions, and anticipate future hotspots of subsidence-driven flooding.

As the climate crisis intensifies, nuanced and multidimensional frameworks for coastal risk assessment must replace overly simplistic narratives focusing exclusively on oceanic rise. Java’s subsidence challenge exemplifies the complexity of coastal dynamics and the necessity to integrate geomorphological, hydrogeological, and human factors for an accurate risk portrayal. Investment in monitoring infrastructure, community engagement, and adaptive governance are critical to safeguarding vulnerable populations and ensuring sustainable development along coastal margins worldwide.

This research marks a transformative step toward comprehensive climate adaptation that acknowledges the profound consequences of subsurface dynamics on sea-level hazards. It underscores the imperative for regional and global coordination, innovative technology deployment, and sustainable resource use to confront the intertwined challenges of land subsidence and ocean rise. Ultimately, managing subsidence emerges as a powerful and attainable strategy to buffer coastal communities against the advancing tides.

The revelation that human-induced land sinking, driven principally by groundwater exploitation, will dominate future coastal flooding in Indonesia’s Java Island serves as a clarion call for immediate action. It urges a departure from narrowly focused climate resilience efforts by spotlighting a critical yet overlooked element of coastal risk that is measurable, manageable, and mitigable at the local level. The integration of remote sensing innovations, scientific insight, and policy engagement outlined in this study sets a new standard for confronting one of the most pressing environmental challenges of our era.

Subject of Research: Coastal Flooding Risk, Land Subsidence, Sea Level Rise, Java Island, Groundwater Extraction, Remote Sensing

Article Title: Land Subsidence Outpaces Sea-Level Rise as Primary Driver of Coastal Flooding Risk on Indonesia’s Java Island

News Publication Date: Not specified in the provided content

Web References:
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aec0172

References:
Original study DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aec0172

Image Credits: Courtesy of Virginia Tech

Keywords: Land Subsidence, Coastal Flooding, Sea Level Rise, Groundwater Withdrawal, Remote Sensing, Satellite Radar, Machine Learning, Java Island, Climate Adaptation, Coastal Resilience, Hydrogeology, Environmental Risk

The findings of the study, published in the esteemed journal Cuadernos de Geografía by the University of Valencia, reveal an astonishingly accurate representation of the flooding’s dynamics, its extent, and the catastrophic overflowing flows that led to significant material and human damage. This research serves as a crucial resource for understanding the hydrological behavior of the region and highlights the need for advanced modeling approaches in hydrology.

One notable aspect of this comprehensive study is the emphasis on public information and open-access tools. These resources allowed the researchers to reconstruct the hydraulic behavior of critical hydrological systems, such as the Poyo–Torrent and Poçalet–Saleta ravine systems. The study documents extreme flow velocities, as well as flood arrival times in the towns affected, documenting water depths exceeding four meters in urban areas—a severe and alarming statistic that underscores the necessity for improvement in flood preparedness and response.

The results of the hydraulic modeling reveal an extraordinary speed and ferocity of the flood event, with recorded flow speeds reaching up to 8 meters per second. The researchers demonstrated that response times between the headwaters and the densest urban areas were alarmingly short—less than an hour—indicating the need for prompt and efficient emergency response strategies in the face of such rapidly evolving flood scenarios.

Among the main conclusions drawn from the study is the confirmation of hydraulic modeling as a reliable method for reproducing observed realities during storm events. This validation enhances the understanding of the extent of flooding, water levels, and the temporal evolution of the flooding process, solidifying the role of advanced modeling techniques in flood risk assessment and disaster response planning.

Significantly, the study identifies the impact of transport infrastructures, such as the V-31 motorway, as playing a decisive role in exacerbating the flooding situation. Backwater effects attributed to these structures are highlighted as contributors to worsening flood conditions upstream, drawing attention to the interconnectedness of infrastructure planning and hydrological impacts. This revelation calls for a careful re-evaluation of existing infrastructure in flood-prone areas to mitigate future risks.

Another innovative contribution of this research is the development of a novel tool that harnesses the hydraulic power of the flood current as an indicator of its carrying capacity. This methodology allows for the identification of the most energetic overtopping flows, focusing on the areas where this energy dissipates. These zones are critical as they are more likely to accumulate debris, people, or objects displaced by the flood waters.

The application of this cutting-edge tool proved advantageous during the October 2024 flood episode, assisting emergency services in their search for missing individuals. The georeferenced format of the tool facilitates its direct implementation in real-world scenarios, showcasing a remarkable advancement in the integration of hydraulic science into emergency management practices. The implications of this innovation extend beyond immediate rescue efforts to encompass long-term adaptations to changing climate conditions.

As climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, the insights garnered from this study hold immense value for evaluating existing infrastructure and developing adaptive strategies. The researchers contend that the ability to create reliable simulations in near real-time can drastically improve decision-making processes during emergencies, optimize search and rescue operations, and ultimately save lives in future flood scenarios.

The research underscores not only the scientific importance of hydraulic modeling but also its practical applications in safeguarding communities potentially affected by flooding disasters. Vallés Morán’s work demonstrates that applied hydraulic science is essential in flood risk planning, prevention, and operational response, providing a blueprint for future investigations in hydrology, risk assessment, and emergency management.

Moreover, the necessity of interdisciplinary collaboration emerges as a theme throughout the study. By integrating hydraulic science with urban planning, disaster response frameworks, and climate adaptation strategies, researchers and practitioners can create more resilient communities capable of coping with the challenges posed by increasing flood risks.

In conclusion, this significant research by Francisco Vallés Morán and his team not only advances the scientific understanding of flood dynamics but also emphasizes the crucial role of such knowledge in enhancing societal preparedness for extreme weather events. The dedication to developing practical solutions reinforces the importance of hydraulic science as a key component in effective disaster response, making strides toward a more resilient future.

Subject of Research:
Article Title: Simulación hidráulica de la inundación y flujos desbordados en la DANA del 29 de octubre de 2024 en l’Horta Sud (Valencia)
News Publication Date: 26-Dec-2025
Web References: Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering
References: doi:10.7203/CGUV.114-15.32121
Image Credits:

Keywords

Applied sciences and engineering, Technology

Flooding, a natural hazard with devastating consequences for human settlements and ecosystems alike, continues to perplex scientists due to its inherent variability and sensitivity to changing climatic and land-use conditions. Traditional hydrological models often fall short in capturing nonlinear dependencies and the multifaceted influences of environmental predictors. This study stands out by integrating sophisticated statistical and machine learning frameworks that learn from large datasets with minimal assumptions about variable relationships, thereby offering a finer resolution into flood dynamics.

The research focused specifically on South-East Australia, a region notorious for its susceptibility to episodic flooding events influenced by complex meteorological drivers, including intense precipitation and catchment characteristics. By coupling regional hydrometeorological data with advanced computational modeling, the team aimed to enhance the accuracy of flood frequency analyses — a cornerstone for disaster mitigation planning, infrastructure design, and policy formulation.

Generalized additive models, one of the principal methods employed, provide a flexible approach to modeling flood occurrences by allowing nonlinear relationships between predictors and flood response variables. Through smooth functions, GAMs adapt to the data’s underlying structure without predefining the form of interactions, making them particularly suited to environmental variables whose influences do not follow simple linear trends.

Meanwhile, random forests leveraged in the study are ensemble learning methods that enhance prediction stability and accuracy by constructing multiple decision trees and aggregating their outputs. This approach inherently manages high-dimensional data and complex variable interactions, addressing issues of overfitting prevalent in single-tree models. In flood frequency modeling, RFs offer robustness to noisy data while maintaining interpretability, thus presenting a practical tool for hydrologists.

Extreme gradient boosting, the third algorithm under investigation, represents a cutting-edge boosting technique that sequentially builds predictive models to minimize error with remarkable speed and precision. Its ability to handle missing data and incorporate regularization terms to prevent overfitting makes it exceptionally powerful for modeling extreme hydrologic events, which often manifest as outliers in flood datasets.

By applying these three methods concurrently, the research delineated comparative strengths and limitations inherent to each model within the context of flood frequency estimation. The GAMs demonstrated strong conceptual interpretability and highlighted nonlinear environmental effects on flood magnitudes, whereas random forests excelled in capturing intricate variable interactions. XGBoost, with its fine-tuned learning algorithms, outperformed others in predictive accuracy, especially in extreme flood quantification.

Data utilized encompassed extensive hydrological records spanning multiple catchments, meteorological parameters such as rainfall intensity and duration, topographic indices, and soil moisture metrics. Such richness in data permitted the examination of multifaceted drivers and their temporal variability, thereby deepening the understanding of flood-generating processes under different atmospheric and land surface conditions.

Moreover, the study’s methodological rigor included cross-validation schemes, hyperparameter optimization, and uncertainty quantification, ensuring robust model evaluation and enhancing confidence in the predictive outcomes. These methodological choices reflect a meticulous approach to overcoming common challenges in environmental modeling, such as data scarcity, noise, and model overfitting.

One of the most compelling outcomes of the investigation was the enhanced spatial resolution of flood frequency estimates, enabling more localized risk assessments. This granularity is crucial for communities, urban planners, and emergency management agencies, who require precise information to design resilient infrastructure, allocate resources efficiently, and implement timely mitigation strategies.

The implications of this study extend beyond the boundaries of South-East Australia. The fusion of statistical and machine learning frameworks offers a replicable blueprint for flood prediction in other regions facing similar hydrological uncertainties influenced by climate change and anthropogenic alterations. Such methodological advances are vital for adapting to a future where extreme weather events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity.

Beyond predictive gains, the research contributes valuable insights into the interpretability of complex models governing flood risk. Understanding which variables most strongly influence flood frequency facilitates targeted environmental policies and informs the design of early warning systems that can save lives and reduce economic losses.

Furthermore, the integration of extreme gradient boosting into hydrologic modeling signals a burgeoning relationship between artificial intelligence and environmental sciences. This interdisciplinary approach heralds a transformative shift where AI not only complements but elevates traditional analytical methods, pushing the boundaries of what is achievable in environmental risk assessment.

The compelling juxtaposition of advanced modeling techniques in this study underscores an essential theme in contemporary environmental science: embracing complexity through computational innovation leads to more nuanced and actionable knowledge. As climate variability continues to shape disaster landscapes, such pioneering research stands at the forefront of equipping society with better tools to anticipate and respond to natural hazards.

In delivering these findings, the researchers emphasize the importance of continued data collection and model refinement. They advocate for collaborative efforts combining hydrological expertise, climate science, and data analytics to create adaptive systems capable of evolving alongside environmental changes.

This landmark study offers a pivotal example of how modern data-driven approaches can revolutionize our understanding of flood phenomena. By harnessing the power of generalized additive models, random forests, and extreme gradient boosting, it charts a promising pathway toward more resilient and informed flood risk management strategies worldwide.

As flood risks mount under accelerating climatic shifts, the insights from Pan, Yildirim, Rahman, and colleagues resonate with urgency and hope, spotlighting the fusion of technology and science as a beacon for safeguarding vulnerable communities in an uncertain future.

Subject of Research: Regional flood frequency analysis using advanced machine learning models in South-East Australia.

Article Title: Regional flood frequency analysis using generalized additive models, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting for South-East Australia.

Article References:
Pan, X., Yildirim, G., Rahman, A. et al. Regional flood frequency analysis using generalized additive models, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting for South-East Australia. Environ Earth Sci 85, 67 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-025-12800-5

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-025-12800-5

Mangrove ecosystems, with their intricate, aerial root systems adapted to saline environments, act as formidable natural buffers against storm surges by dissipating wave energy and reducing floodwater velocities. These coastal forests allow saltwater to be filtered into freshwater and foster essential ecological functions. Despite covering an estimated 600,000 acres in Florida’s southern coastal zone, mangroves have often been overlooked in economic valuations for flood risk management. This study addresses that critical gap by simulating the spatially variable protective effects of mangroves on specific coastal property portfolios.

The results are staggering: mangroves reduced combined surge and flood damage estimates by approximately $725 million during Hurricane Irma and by $4.1 billion during Hurricane Ian. Annually, for Collier County alone, the study predicts that mangroves contribute an approximate $67 million in avoided storm surge losses. These figures are grounded in sophisticated, industry-grade computational models that integrate hydrodynamic surge data with property vulnerability profiles, thereby providing stakeholder-relevant insights for insurance, urban planning, and conservation policies.

One of the most novel findings is the spatial heterogeneity in mangrove protection. While properties situated landward of mangrove belts consistently benefit from reduced surge depths and financial losses, those located seaward—directly in front of mangroves—sometimes experience elevated risks. This paradox arises from altered wave reflection and flow patterns where mangroves influence the physical oceanographic conditions in complex manners that may amplify localized flooding for some coastal frontiers. Therefore, risk assessments must consider this nuanced spatial variability rather than assuming uniform mangrove benefits.

The research harnessed state-of-the-art catastrophe risk models commonly used in the insurance industry, a first for ecological coastal defenses. Moody’s RMS provided essential modeling infrastructure, combining hydrodynamic simulation outputs with property-level exposure data to estimate the economic impact of storm surges with and without mangrove cover. This collaboration bridges natural science and risk finance, highlighting how incorporating ecosystem services into financial risk models can elevate ecosystem conservation as a tangible, economically defensible strategy.

Dr. Siddharth Narayan, the study’s lead author and a professor of coastal studies at ECU, emphasizes the real-world utility of these findings. Comparing the Florida mangrove results with previous findings in the northeastern US for salt marsh wetlands during Hurricane Sandy, Narayan stresses that nature-based solutions provide measurable reductions in property damage—between 14 to 30 percent in surge-induced loss due to mangrove presence in Florida. This quantification enables stakeholders from policymakers to insurers to recognize mangroves as cost-effective, scalable climate adaptation tools.

Florida’s coastal environment, characterized by sprawling expensive developments and increasing hurricane intensities, is particularly susceptible to surge-induced flood hazards. Mangroves play a pivotal ecological and physical role in this context, filtering pollutants, stabilizing sediments, and buffering storm impacts. However, this study underscores that preservation efforts must be strategic, taking into account where property developments occur relative to natural barriers. Developing in front of mangroves can undermine the very protection these forests offer, heightening risk exposure for storm impacts.

The study situates itself within a broader scientific discourse that increasingly recognizes the dual role of natural habitats as both ecological treasures and critical infrastructural assets. By translating the flood mitigation capacities of mangroves into dollar values understood by insurance and real estate markets, the research aims to steer funding and regulatory incentives toward mangrove conservation. This could have far-reaching implications for coastal resilience planning as sea level rise and storm frequency escalate under climate change.

Funding support from the Walton Family Foundation, the Herbert W. Hoover Foundation, AXA Research Fund, and the National Science Foundation enabled this interdisciplinary collaboration, bringing together experts in coastal ecology, risk modeling, and conservation. The multi-institutional team included prominent figures such as CCCR’s director Michael Beck, whose leadership emphasizes that valuation of ecosystem services is crucial because society protects what it values monetarily.

Expanding beyond Florida, the modeling framework developed offers a replicable blueprint for assessing mangrove benefits globally in tropical and subtropical coastlines. As more regions confront increasing exposure to severe tropical cyclones and their attendant flood risks, integrating these natural defenses into spatial planning and insurance underwriting can substantially reduce economic losses and safeguard vulnerable communities.

The study also serves as a cautionary message regarding the unintended consequences of coastal development in mangrove-rich environments. Urban and infrastructure projects located seaward of mangroves could disrupt natural flow regimes and diminish overall coastal resilience, emphasizing that future planning must be underpinned by robust geospatial risk analyses that consider ecosystem interactions with storm surge dynamics at a granular level.

In conclusion, this pioneering research bridges ecological science and financial risk analysis to demonstrate the immense, spatially diverse flood protection benefits of mangroves in Florida. It challenges traditional hard-engineered flood defenses by illustrating that natural ecosystems, when preserved and intelligently integrated into coastal management, can offer cost-effective and sustainable solutions against escalating climate threats. Mangroves are not merely biodiversity hotspots but indispensable frontline defenders that save billions of dollars in property losses during hurricanes, a true testament to the power of nature-based resilience.

Subject of Research: Not applicable

Article Title: The spatially variable effects of mangroves on flood depths and losses from storm surges in Florida

News Publication Date: 14-Oct-2025

Web References:
https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-sustainability/fulltext/S2949-7906(25)00227-7

References:
Narayan, S., Thomas, C.J., Nzerem, K., Matthewman, J., Shephard, C., Geselbracht, L., Beck, M.W. (2025). The spatially variable effects of mangroves on flood depths and losses from storm surges in Florida. Cell Reports Sustainability. DOI: 10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100531

Image Credits: Image by J. Kendall-Bar, UC Santa Cruz

Keywords: Climate change mitigation, Risk reduction

Dr. Younes Alila, a professor at UBC’s faculty of forestry and co-author of the study, highlights the alarming trend, stating, “Floods that were once considered extraordinary ‘once-in-100-year’ events are now happening once or twice every decade.” This shift in flood frequency demands an evolution in both hydrological modeling approaches and the strategies employed by flood risk managers. Traditional models that prioritize peak flood sizes do not account for the nuanced risks posed by the changing temporal patterns of flooding events, which this study captures in stark detail.

The research, spearheaded by master’s student Samadhee Kaluarachchi alongside Dr. Alila, critically examines the limitations of established flood management paradigms—particularly those relying on static return periods like the “200-year flood.” By performing an extensive literature review of international watershed data, the study reveals that these conventional benchmarks are underestimating the increasingly dynamic flood risks amplified by human activities and climate pressures. This calls into question the efficacy of current infrastructure design and emergency preparedness protocols.

A key insight emerging from this research is that many flood events originate far upstream in headwater regions, often several hundred kilometers from downstream urban centers. The study emphasizes how land-use changes, particularly forestry practices such as clear-cutting, have a pronounced effect not only on the magnitude but also the frequency of flooding events. Clear-cutting disrupts soil integrity and vegetation cover, which diminishes the watershed’s natural capacity to absorb and regulate stormwater runoff, thereby exacerbating flood peaks and frequency downstream.

Working collaboratively with natural systems offers a promising avenue for flood mitigation. B.C.’s intricate landscape of lakes, wetlands, and forested areas inherently buffers against flood surges by storing precipitation and releasing it slowly over time. The study’s findings suggest that sustainable forestry practices that protect these natural hydrologic components can meaningfully reduce flood risk. For instance, logging upstream of lakes has significantly less impact on increasing flood frequency than harvesting activities conducted below such water bodies, where alterations directly affect runoff volumes.

The research further notes that high-elevation logging can have unintended consequences by intensifying snowmelt-driven floods, a critical consideration in mountainous regions where snow accumulation and melt cycles are sensitive to climate variability. This complex interplay between forest management and hydrology underscores the necessity for adaptive, site-specific policies rather than one-size-fits-all solutions.

Urban planning must also evolve to address flood risks that are compounded by impervious surfaces and stormwater infrastructure designed under outdated assumptions. The study highlights innovative “sponge city” initiatives aimed at restoring the ground’s ability to absorb rainfall, thereby reducing runoff and mitigating downstream flooding. These nature-based solutions, such as tree planting and wetland restoration, have been met with some skepticism in the past but are now gaining empirical support as effective, scalable interventions.

Another critical finding pertains to the performance degradation of existing flood defense structures. Many dikes, levees, and embankments in the Lower Mainland of B.C. were constructed based on historical data that fails to reflect current hydrological realities. A 2015 assessment revealed that nearly 70% of these structures were in only fair or poor condition, underscoring a systemic vulnerability as moderate floods—occurring more frequently under the new norms—cause incremental but cumulative damage such as riverbank erosion, foundation scouring, and sediment clogging.

The erosion of infrastructure is particularly concerning because failures are more likely triggered by these moderate recurrent events than by extreme, record-breaking floods. Consequently, current engineering standards and maintenance regimes need urgent revision to incorporate the increased frequency of moderate floods alongside rare extremes. Climate change’s role in making extreme events more common only amplifies the urgency of this recalibration.

Economically, the surge in flood events has already manifested in escalating flood-related litigation and insurance claims, a trend that Dr. Alila warns will continue without a science-based overhaul of regulations and floodplain management policies. The study urges governments, planners, and engineers to integrate flood frequency metrics into risk assessment models and infrastructure design to preempt failures and safeguard communities more effectively.

Published in Frontiers in Environmental Science, an open-access peer-reviewed journal, this study not only identifies the multifaceted challenges posed by increased flood frequency in the Anthropocene but also offers a robust, stochastic-physics-based framework for managing extremes in the context of evolving environmental and anthropogenic pressures. Its open-access status ensures that flood managers, policymakers, and stakeholders worldwide can readily apply these insights to local flood risk governance.

As rivers respond dynamically to upstream disturbances, the research fundamentally challenges the entrenched focus on extreme flood magnitudes alone. Instead, by capturing the causal mechanisms and stochastic variability in flood recurrence, it equips flood risk professionals with a more realistic, predictive understanding of contemporary flood hazards. This represents a crucial step forward in aligning hydrological science with the pressing realities posed by climate change and land-use transitions.

The collective message from the UBC research team is clear: managing flood risk in today’s changing environment requires integrated strategies that embrace the complexity of natural systems, incorporate dynamic flood frequency analysis, and prioritize adaptive infrastructure and land management. As the frequency of flooding shifts into new territory, so must our approaches to safeguarding communities and ecosystems.

Subject of Research: Not applicable
Article Title: Managing extremes in the Anthropocene: A causal, stochastic physics approach
News Publication Date: 7-Oct-2025
Web References: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1643416/full
References: UBC faculty of forestry, Frontiers in Environmental Science publication
Image Credits: Photo credit: Samadhee Kaluarachchi

Keywords: Hydrology, Floods, Flood control

The study conducted by Ali et al. highlights the interplay between climate change and flood risk, noting that rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns contribute to the increasing likelihood of extreme weather events. Flooding, in particular, poses a significant threat to communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems, making it crucial for governments and institutions to prioritize research and develop responsive policies. The findings underscore a growing recognition that climate change is not a distant concern but a present-day reality that demands immediate action.

One of the key findings of the review is the identification of regions most at risk of experiencing climate change-induced flooding. Many low-lying areas, such as coastal cities and river deltas, are particularly vulnerable due to their geographical characteristics. This vulnerability is further exacerbated by socioeconomic factors like poverty, population density, and inadequate infrastructure, which can amplify the impacts of flooding on communities. The study calls for targeted research into these vulnerable areas to help policymakers understand the unique challenges they face.

Moreover, the review highlights the need for interdisciplinary approaches to flood management that integrate scientific research with local knowledge and community engagement. By involving local populations in the discussion, researchers can better assess specific vulnerabilities and risk factors that may not be apparent from a purely scientific perspective. This collaborative approach not only enhances the quality of research but also fosters community resilience in the face of increasing flood risks.

Additionally, the review emphasizes the importance of developing comprehensive risk assessment frameworks to evaluate the potential impacts of flooding. Traditional risk assessment models often fail to account for the complex interactions between environmental factors and human activities, which can lead to an underestimation of flood risks. Researchers advocate for more sophisticated modeling techniques that incorporate real-time data, climate projections, and social dynamics to provide a clearer picture of flood susceptibility.

Investments in technology are also deemed essential for improving flood forecasting and early warning systems. Advances in satellite imagery, remote sensing, and data analytics can enhance our ability to monitor weather patterns and predict flooding events with greater accuracy. Such technological innovations allow for timely evacuations and resource mobilization, significantly reducing the human and economic toll of flooding.

In light of the findings, it is crucial for governments to reassess their disaster preparedness strategies and consider climate change projections in their planning processes. Embracing a proactive stance, rather than a reactive one, can have significant benefits in mitigating flood risks. This shift in mindset is necessary for building long-term resilience within communities that are already on the frontline of climate change.

Moreover, policymakers must recognize the interconnectedness of climate change impacts. Flooding is not an isolated issue; it often coincides with other challenges such as droughts, heatwaves, and pest invasions. A holistic approach to climate governance is vital, ensuring that measures taken to address flood risks do not inadvertently exacerbate other related vulnerabilities.

Furthermore, the economic implications of flooding cannot be overlooked. The review highlights that flood-related damages impose substantial costs on affected communities, governments, and economies. Hence, integrating climate risk assessments into financial planning and investment strategies is not only prudent but necessary for sustainable development. Financial institutions and investors must be made aware of the risks associated with climate-induced flooding to ensure that funds do not inadvertently support high-risk developments.

Education and public awareness are also integral to tackling climate change-induced flooding. Raising awareness about the risks associated with flooding and empowering communities with knowledge on how to prepare can foster a culture of resilience. Educational programs that focus on risk preparedness, climate adaptation, and environmental stewardship contribute to an informed society capable of facing the challenges posed by climate change.

Moreover, the role of ecological restoration and sustainable land management cannot be underestimated in the fight against flooding. Restoring wetlands, forests, and other natural habitats can enhance water retention and reduce the intensity of flood events. Implementing green infrastructure solutions, such as permeable pavements and green roofs, can also mitigate urban flooding while providing additional environmental benefits.

In conclusion, the systematic review on climate change-induced flood susceptibility, vulnerability, and risk reveals a pressing need for coordinated research and action. While the challenges posed by climate change are daunting, the collective power of scientific inquiry, community engagement, interdisciplinary collaboration, and innovative solutions can pave the way for a more resilient future. As we move forward, it is essential to prioritize the integration of climate risk assessments into policy making and foster a culture of preparedness that empowers communities to adapt and thrive in an evolving climate landscape.

Understanding the complexity of climate change impacts on flooding is not merely an academic pursuit; it is a critical facet of ensuring human safety and environmental sustainability. Ongoing research in this area will facilitate better decision-making and proactive strategies aimed at minimizing flood risks and enhancing community resilience.

With continued commitment and collaboration among researchers, policymakers, and local communities, we can aim not only to survive the impacts of climate change but to thrive despite them. The journey towards resilience against flood risks is urgent and requires a unified approach, highlighting the need for immediate action grounded in comprehensive research and strategic planning.

Subject of Research: Climate change-induced flood susceptibility, vulnerability, and risk

Article Title: A systematic review on climate change-induced flood susceptibility, vulnerability and risk: future research perspective.

Article References: Ali, R., Sajjad, H., Rahaman, M.H. et al. A systematic review on climate change-induced flood susceptibility, vulnerability and risk: future research perspective. Environ Monit Assess 197, 1127 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-025-14541-1

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI:

Keywords: Climate change, flood risk, vulnerability, adaptation strategies, risk assessment.

Flooding is an increasingly frequent phenomenon worldwide, propelled by the changing climate, urbanization, and land use modifications. As rainfall patterns shift and extreme weather events become more common, understanding the underlying factors that contribute to flood risks becomes essential. In this context, morphometric analysis emerges as a sophisticated tool in hydrology, offering a statistical glimpse into the river basin’s characteristics, landform features, and geological underpinnings that influence flood occurrences.

Patel and his team utilized the morphometric compound factor, which is pivotal in quantifying the geometrical properties of the landscape. It provides insights into drainage density, stream frequency, and various shape factors of river networks, all of which play a significant role in hydrological responses to rainfall events. By leveraging data collected from the lower Gandak basin, the researchers were able to derive patterns that reflect how the landscape interacts dynamically with water flow, thus shedding light on the susceptibility of the region to flooding.

The hypsometric integral, another critical analytical tool featured in the study, gauges the distribution of elevation in a watershed. This metric is crucial as it integrates the vertical aspect of the terrain, aiding in understanding how the shape and elevation of land can influence water retention and runoff patterns. By combining both morphometric analysis and the hypsometric integral, the researchers were able to formulate a multidimensional view of flood hazards that accounts for both the horizontal layout of the terrain and its vertical characteristics.

Furthermore, the research highlights the significance of geographical context in flood assessment. The lower Gandak basin, with its unique geological and hydrological settings, presents a distinct case for studying flood risk. Factors like soil type, vegetation cover, and human activities, such as agriculture and urban development, intricately interweave to influence local hydrology. By analyzing these components, the study not only illustrates the immediate flood risks but also points out potential long-term implications for local communities.

The results from Patel, Ghosh, and Gupta’s extensive assessment underscore the urgent need for integrated water resource management policies that can alleviate flood risks in vulnerable regions. The intricate relationship between land use and flood risk calls for conscientious urban planning and adaptive resource management. There is a clear requirement for local governments and policymakers to collaborate with scientists and engineers to implement strategies that minimize human impact on native ecosystems while enhancing the resilience of communities facing flood threats.

Climate adaptation strategies must also be informed by scientific data, like that derived from these research findings. Local communities need to understand their specific vulnerabilities and the mitigating strategies that can be employed. Stakeholder engagement is critical, as informed citizens can better contribute to sustainable practices. The information gained from morphometric and hypsometric analyses can be essential in educational outreach, helping communities comprehend the significance of maintaining natural landscapes and water bodies.

Moreover, technological advancements in data collection, such as remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS), significantly enhance our ability to analyze and predict flood risks. These tools enable real-time monitoring and streamline the assessment processes, thereby facilitating faster response times to flood threats. The ability to visualize and predict flood scenarios can lead to the creation of more effective public policies aimed at disaster preparedness and response.

The implications of this research go beyond the lower Gandak basin. As other regions face similar challenges sparked by climate change, lessons learned from this study could be applied in diverse geographical contexts. Comparative studies across different river basins could enrich the body of knowledge on flood risks and management strategies, leading to more robust frameworks that integrate scientific knowledge with practical applications.

These findings carry weight in academic circles, inspiring further research into the relationship between landscape morphometry and hydrological responses. Future investigations can delve deeper into how different environmental factors may play a role in shaping flood risks, potentially leading to new methodologies for assessing and managing such hazards elsewhere. The academic community must continue to emphasize interdisciplinary approaches, marrying climatology, geography, urban planning, and environmental science to tackle the pressing issue of floods.

Public awareness and education surrounding flood risks are equally essential. As communities become more informed about their environmental context and the intricacies of flood risks, they will be better equipped to advocate for sustainable practices and policies. Education can serve as a powerful catalyst for change, mobilizing community efforts to adopt better land management practices and enhancing disaster preparedness at the grassroots level.

In conclusion, the investigation by Patel, Ghosh, and Gupta into flood hazards through the lenses of morphometric analysis and hypsometric assessment stands as a valuable contribution to our understanding of environmental risks in flood-prone regions. Their research not only emphasizes the need for comprehensive flood risk assessment methodologies but also highlights the pressing importance of proactive measures in urban and environmental planning to mitigate these risks. As the world grapples with the realities of climate change, studies like this serve as crucial tools in navigating the uncertainties and safeguarding the future of vulnerable communities.

Subject of Research: Flood hazards assessment in the lower Gandak basin, India

Article Title: Assessment of flood hazards using morphometric compound factor and hypsometric integral in lower Gandak basin, India

Article References:

Patel, S.K., Ghosh, P., Gupta, D.S. et al. Assessment of flood hazards using morphometric compound factor and hypsometric integral in lower Gandak basin, India. Environ Monit Assess 197, 1088 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-025-14475-8

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI:

Keywords: Flood hazards, morphometric analysis, hypsometric integral, lower Gandak basin, climate change, environmental management, hydrology, urban planning.

The core idea behind MBIs is straightforward: generate revenue through economic mechanisms that incentivize environmental stewardship. By leveraging market forces, MBIs aim to attract private investment in natural infrastructure, such as wetlands and forests, which can play a crucial role in mitigating flood risks. This is a shift away from traditional funding methods that often rely solely on government budgets, thereby broadening the scope of financing for crucial environmental projects. However, as highlighted in the study, the effectiveness of these instruments in achieving equitable outcomes is fraught with challenges.

A significant point raised by the researchers is that affluent communities are typically better positioned to capitalize on MBIs. Wealthier areas may have more resources to invest in the necessary infrastructure, higher property values that attract investment, and better access to information about funding opportunities. Consequently, these areas can implement robust nature-based solutions that maximise flood risk mitigation while poorer regions may be left behind. This disparity raises concerns about the potential for MBIs to deepen existing inequalities, rather than serve as a tool for equitable environmental management.

Furthermore, the perception that MBIs are a panacea for flood risk management could lead to a lack of attention on the needs of disadvantaged areas. Policymakers might inadvertently prioritize investments in areas that promise higher returns, thus neglecting the communities most vulnerable to flooding. As MBIs become increasingly popular, it is crucial to scrutinize their implementation carefully to ensure that they do not exacerbate socio-economic disparities. The findings underscore the need for a nuanced approach that safeguards the interests of all communities, particularly those that are often ignored in environmental financing discussions.

The research team points out that effective stakeholder engagement is essential for the successful application of MBIs. Stakeholders, including community leaders, local governments, and NGOs, must be involved in the planning and implementation processes to ensure that their specific needs are met. This collaborative approach can help identify the unique challenges faced by disadvantaged communities, allowing for tailored solutions that adequately address their concerns. Additionally, empowering these communities by involving them in decision-making can foster a sense of ownership and responsibility for the environmental initiatives being developed.

One interesting aspect of the study is its exploration of how diverse financing mechanisms can foster more equitable outcomes. For instance, integrating community-based funding models with MBIs can create an ecosystem where local stakeholders are not only beneficiaries but also contributors to the funding process. By providing financial support through grants, local taxes, or community bonds, resources can be directed toward nature-based solutions in underserved areas. This method not only addresses immediate flood risks but also builds local resilience and capacity for future environmental challenges.

Moreover, the researchers highlight the importance of transparent and accountable financial systems when deploying MBIs. Without proper oversight, there is a risk that funds may be misallocated or mismanaged, further diminishing the benefits to vulnerable communities. Implementing rigorous monitoring systems and evaluation frameworks can enhance accountability, ensuring that resources are effectively channeled toward the intended goals. This level of transparency will also bolster public trust in these initiatives, encouraging broader participation from various community stakeholders.

Climate justice is another critical theme interwoven throughout the findings of this research. It is imperative that as we leverage innovative financial mechanisms to combat climate change and flooding, we also ensure that we are upholding principles of justice and equality. Any strategy aimed at enhancing flood resilience must integrate equity as a foundational component. Thus, special attention must be paid to the social dimensions of environmental financing to prevent the entrenchment of systemic inequities.

Ultimately, as the researchers conclude, the conversation surrounding MBIs and NbS in flood risk management must evolve. A simplistic view that equates market-based solutions with a cure-all could be dangerous, leading to unintended consequences that exacerbate existing socio-economic disparities. Policymakers are called upon to engage in comprehensive dialogues that incorporate the voices of all stakeholders, particularly those from marginalized communities.

The study serves as a wake-up call, emphasizing the need for a critical reflection on the implications of adopting market-based instruments in environmental management. It advocates for a balanced approach that marries economic incentives with social responsibility, ensuring that no community is left behind as society strives toward sustainable and equitable solutions. The ongoing evolution of flood risk management in the context of climate change must prioritize not only effectiveness but also fairness and accessibility as guiding principles.

In conclusion, while market-based instruments present promising opportunities for funding nature-based solutions aimed at flood risk management, they must not be viewed through a lens of uncritical optimism. As highlighted by Hill, Marjoribanks, Moore, and their team, the focus should remain on creating equitable frameworks that ensure that all communities — regardless of economic status — can access the benefits these solutions offer. Only by paying heed to these complexities will it be possible to forge truly sustainable paths forward in the arena of climate resilience.

Subject of Research: The impact of market-based instruments on flood risk management and their socio-economic implications.

Article Title: Market-based instruments to fund nature-based solutions for flood risk management can disproportionately benefit affluent areas.

Article References:

Hill, B., Marjoribanks, T., Moore, H. et al. Market-based instruments to fund nature-based solutions for flood risk management can disproportionately benefit affluent areas.
Commun Earth Environ 6, 714 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02706-2

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02706-2

Keywords: Market-based instruments, nature-based solutions, flood risk management, equity, socio-economic disparities, climate justice.

Flooding is a natural phenomenon that can cause widespread devastation. The Upper Krishna River Basin has experienced several severe flooding incidents over the years, leading to loss of life and significant economic damage. Given the potential for catastrophic flooding, there is an urgent need to predict extreme flood events more accurately. This study aims to devise methodologies that can improve the predictability of floods using various probabilistic approaches.

The research utilizes advanced statistical techniques to analyze historical flood data and identify patterns that indicate possible future extreme flood events. By examining the frequency and severity of past floods, the authors apply different probabilistic models to estimate the magnitudes of potential future flooding events. This statistical analysis is vital, especially in an era where climate change is altering precipitation patterns and increasing the unpredictability of weather events.

One of the key methodologies employed in this research is the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, a foundational tool in extreme value theory used to model the extreme events occurring at the tails of distribution. The authors critically evaluate the effectiveness of GEV in capturing the behavior of extreme floods within the Upper Krishna River Basin. Through their rigorous analyses, they offer a comprehensive understanding of how extreme floods can be quantified and predicted using historical data.

Moreover, the study also explores the application of other probabilistic models, such as the Log-Pearson Type III and the Peak Over Threshold methods. Each model has its own strengths and weaknesses, making it crucial to assess their performance concerning local conditions. The authors provide a comparative analysis to highlight which models deliver the most reliable and applicable results for the region, further enriching the discourse on flood management strategies.

Another significant part of the study focuses on the implications of climate change on flood risk. As global temperatures rise, regions like the Upper Krishna River Basin may experience increased rainfall intensity and altered hydrological cycles, resulting in more frequent and severe flooding events. The authors discuss how their findings can aid in developing adaptive management strategies that policymakers can implement to mitigate the impacts of climate change on local communities.

The interplay between environmental changes and flood events necessitates the integration of multiple disciplines in flood research. Choudhary and his colleagues adopt a multidisciplinary approach, drawing on insights from hydrology, meteorology, and statistical modeling to create a well-rounded analysis of flood risks. This comprehensive methodology not only enhances the accuracy of flood predictions but also ensures that various perspectives are considered when formulating disaster response strategies.

Furthermore, the study emphasizes the role of public awareness and community engagement in flood preparedness. By communicating their findings to local governments and stakeholders, the researchers aim to inform and educate communities living in flood-prone areas. Understanding the patterns of past extreme flood events can empower residents to take proactive measures to protect their homes and livelihoods from future floods.

The publication of this research comes at a critical junction when policymakers worldwide are grappling with the realities of climate change and its associated risks. As nations work towards achieving their climate goals, understanding flood risks becomes paramount. The methods developed by Choudhary and his team can serve as a model for other regions facing similar challenges, highlighting the need for targeted research in flood management practices.

In conclusion, the study represents an essential contribution to the body of knowledge concerning flood risk assessment in the Upper Krishna River Basin. By employing multiple probabilistic methods, the authors provide valuable insights into predicting extreme flood events that can aid in the development of effective management strategies. This research not only underscores the importance of statistical methods in environmental science but also highlights the necessity for interdisciplinary collaboration in tackling complex environmental challenges. As scientists continue to refine their models and adapt to the changing climate, studies such as this offer hope for improved resilience against natural disasters in the future.

Overall, understanding the dynamics of extreme flooding is crucial for safeguarding communities vulnerable to these catastrophic events. The findings from this research are particularly timely in the context of increasing global temperatures and erratic weather patterns, serving as a wake-up call for stakeholders to act on flood mitigation strategies. By integrating scientific insights with local knowledge and resources, the path forward toward effective flood management can become clearer.

Ultimately, the issue of flood risk is not just an environmental concern; it is a pressing socio-economic challenge that demands urgent attention. As we move into an uncertain future, the work of Choudhary, Azhoni, and Devatha sheds light on the pathways to a safer and more resilient society in the face of nature’s extremes.

Subject of Research: Estimating extreme flood magnitudes in the Upper Krishna River Basin using multiple probabilistic methods.

Article Title: Estimating extreme flood magnitudes in the Upper Krishna River Basin using multiple probabilistic methods.

Article References:

Choudhary, P., Azhoni, A. & Devatha, C.P. Estimating extreme flood magnitudes in the Upper Krishna River Basin using multiple probabilistic methods.
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-025-36870-x

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s11356-025-36870-x

Keywords: Flood magnitude, Upper Krishna River Basin, probabilistic methods, climate change, extreme value theory, statistical analysis.