El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have long been recognized as a dominant source of interannual climate variability. However, the conventional understanding of ENSO’s influence is now being challenged by evidence suggesting that the most intense El Niño events, the so-called Super El Niños, not only exacerbate seasonal climate anomalies but can also irrevocably shift climate regimes. These shifts involve changes in atmospheric circulation, ocean temperature distributions, and feedback mechanisms, which collectively modulate weather extremes on multiple temporal and geographic scales. Xue and colleagues’ meticulous research uses data-driven analysis combined with advanced climate modeling to trace these complex feedback loops and their implications under escalating global warming scenarios.

At the heart of this research lies a detailed examination of ocean-atmosphere coupling dynamics—how the warming surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific interact with atmospheric patterns to create dramatic changes in weather. The intensified sea surface temperature anomalies characteristic of Super El Niño events drive stronger atmospheric disturbances that propagate beyond the Pacific basin. As a result, teleconnections—climatic influences felt thousands of kilometers away—become more pronounced, altering precipitation and temperature regimes in regions such as Southeast Asia, North and South America, and even parts of Africa. The researchers highlight that these regime shifts can herald persistent droughts, floods, and heatwaves, significantly impacting agriculture, water resource management, and biodiversity.

This study elucidates the mechanistic pathways through which warming oceans contribute to the enhanced magnitude of El Niño events. Enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations lead to an overall increase in ocean heat content, particularly evident in the equatorial Pacific. The intensified thermal gradients bolster the Walker Circulation anomalies and shift the delicate balance of trade winds and convection patterns. The researchers point out a feedback amplification where strengthened wind anomalies promote further ocean warming, creating a vicious cycle that fuels the extraordinary strength of Super El Niños. Importantly, this process underscores the compounding effects of anthropogenic warming and natural variability, rather than attributing changes solely to one or the other.

Furthermore, Xue et al. deploy sophisticated climate models configured to simulate future climate scenarios in which greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. Their projections indicate a worrying trend: Super El Niño events, which were historically rare, are becoming more frequent by the mid-21st century. This increased recurrence not only heightens the likelihood of extreme weather episodes but also imposes greater uncertainty and volatility on regional climates globally. Importantly, the researchers caution that such shifts challenge existing climate prediction frameworks, calling for more robust forecasting tools capable of incorporating regime change dynamics and their cascading effects.

One of the most striking findings from the study is the interaction between Super El Niño-induced regime shifts and other modes of climate variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The synergy between these oscillations can either exacerbate or modulate the climate impacts of Super El Niños. For instance, overlapping positive phases of PDO and IOD with a Super El Niño event can amplify droughts or floods in impacted areas, multiplying the socio-economic and ecological risks. This interconnectedness implies that understanding and anticipating future climate risks requires a holistic approach that integrates multiple climate drivers and their nonlinear interactions.

The authors also address the profound ecological consequences stemming from these climatic regime shifts. Marine ecosystems, particularly coral reefs in the tropical Pacific, are highly vulnerable to temperature extremes associated with Super El Niños. The heightened sea surface temperatures trigger widespread coral bleaching and mortality, which disrupts marine food webs and undermines fisheries that sustain millions. Additionally, shifts in precipitation patterns affect terrestrial ecosystems, threatening biodiversity hotspots through altered water availability and soil moisture regimes. These ecological impacts have knock-on effects for human communities reliant on natural resources, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and necessitating urgent adaptive responses.

Another dimension explored is the socioeconomic ramifications of Super El Niño events under climate warming. The study underscores how intensified weather extremes linked to regime shifts compromise food security by disrupting agricultural cycles in major production regions such as South America and Southeast Asia. Flooding and droughts lead to crop failures, price volatility, and food shortages, disproportionately affecting low-income populations with limited adaptive capacity. Moreover, infrastructure and public health systems face escalating strain due to increased disaster risk, including vector-borne diseases proliferating in warmer and wetter conditions. Xue and colleagues emphasize the critical need for integrating climate risk understanding into policy frameworks to bolster resilience.

Methodologically, the study leverages a multi-disciplinary approach combining observational data, paleoclimate reconstructions, and coupled climate system models. These techniques enable the researchers to disentangle natural variability from anthropogenic influences, offering robust attribution of Super El Niño event intensification to human-induced warming. Notably, the incorporation of machine learning algorithms enhances the detection of early warning signals for regime shifts, potentially revolutionizing climate prediction capabilities. Such advances underscore the pivotal role of technology in climate science, providing actionable insights for decision-makers.

In the context of global climate policy, this research delivers an urgent message. The intensification of Super El Niño events under ongoing warming could undermine the achievement of sustainable development goals by amplifying climate hazards and stressors. The authors advocate for accelerated mitigation efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions and avoid further optimal climate destabilization. Concurrently, they call for enhanced international cooperation to develop adaptive strategies tailored to the foreseeable shifts driven by these extreme ENSO phenomena. These include investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, early warning systems, and ecosystem conservation to reduce vulnerability and foster sustainability.

The findings from Xue et al. also reshape our understanding of ENSO’s role in the Earth’s climate system. Rather than merely acting as a transient seasonal anomaly, Super El Niño events emerge as powerful agents capable of instigating sustained climate regime shifts. This perspective prompts a reevaluation of climate risk assessments that have historically treated ENSO impacts as episodic interruptions rather than potential catalysts for long-term change. By highlighting the pronounced risks associated with these intensified events, the study marks a paradigm shift in climate science, urging renewed vigilance and adaptive innovation.

Moreover, the regional disparities in climate impacts revealed by the research highlight the complexity and unevenness of climate change effects. While some regions may experience increased precipitation and flooding, others confront protracted droughts, creating multifaceted challenges for global food and water security. This spatial heterogeneity underscores the necessity for localized climate impact assessments and tailored adaptation plans. It also points to the interconnectedness of global systems, where disturbances in one region reverberate worldwide through trade, migration, and ecosystem services.

Looking ahead, the research calls for continuous monitoring and enhanced integration of observational networks across the Pacific basin. Such efforts will refine understanding of preconditioning factors for Super El Niño onset and improve lead times for predictive models. There’s also a recognized need for interdisciplinary collaborations merging climatology, oceanography, ecology, and social sciences to fully apprehend the cascading consequences of these regime shifts. Ultimately, this comprehensive approach will strengthen preparedness and reduce the socio-economic toll of climate extremes exacerbated by warming.

In conclusion, the pioneering work of Xue, Geng, Jin, and their team represents a significant advance in climate science by elucidating how Super El Niño events act as pivotal drivers of climate regime shifts under global warming. By integrating sophisticated modeling with empirical data, the study reveals the expanding threat posed by intensified ENSO variability on ecosystems, human societies, and global climate stability. As these regime shifts become increasingly pronounced, a concerted global response is imperative—one that embraces mitigation, adaptation, and innovative scientific discovery to safeguard planetary health and human well-being amidst a warming world.

Subject of Research: Climate dynamics and impacts of Super El Niño events under global warming.

Article Title: Super El Niño events drive climate regime shifts with enhanced risks under global warming.

Article References:
Xue, A., Geng, X., Jin, FF. et al. Super El Niño events drive climate regime shifts with enhanced risks under global warming. Nat Commun (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66143-7

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The Greenland Ice Sheet, a colossal expanse spanning over 1.7 million square kilometers, is a dominant driver of global sea level fluctuations. As the climate warms, surface melting intensifies, generating pools of meltwater that accumulate in depressions across the ice surface. These meltwater ponds, often transient and seemingly innocuous, are now recognized as dynamic agents that alter the ice sheet’s energy balance in ways previously underestimated. Through advanced remote sensing and innovative radiative transfer modeling, the researchers meticulously quantified how these ponds modulate the reflection and absorption of solar radiation, revealing an amplification in melting processes.

At the heart of this research lies the fundamental physics of light and heat interaction with surface materials. Ice and snow naturally reflect a high percentage of incoming solar radiation, a property known as albedo, which modulates how much energy the surface absorbs. However, when meltwater ponds form, the local albedo decreases significantly. Water absorbs more solar energy than ice or snow, thereby trapping additional heat and accelerating local melting. The study demonstrates that existing models often overlook the spatial complexity and temporal persistence of ponding, thereby underestimating the extent to which these pools influence the ice sheet’s net radiative budget.

A pivotal insight from the research is the quantification of the radiative feedback mechanism driven by ponding. These melt ponds act as small, dark basins, capturing sunlight and increasing the surface temperature of the ice sheet. This increased absorption leads to enhanced localized melting, which in turn allows ponds to expand or new ones to form, establishing a self-reinforcing cycle. What complicates this feedback is the heterogeneity of pond distribution and evolution over time, which has historically posed a challenge for climate modelers attempting to integrate these effects into broader ice sheet simulations.

The researchers employed a combination of satellite observations, including high-resolution optical and thermal imagery, alongside field measurements captured during expeditions to the ice sheet. These complementary datasets enabled them to establish accurate pond coverage maps and temperature profiles. By integrating these empirical observations into state-of-the-art radiative transfer models, the team could simulate the energy exchanges at the ice surface with unprecedented precision. Their approach allowed for the isolation of the ponding effect from other melting factors such as atmospheric temperature, wind, and precipitation variability.

One of the surprising revelations was the temporal persistence of meltwater ponds throughout the melt season. Contrary to prior assumptions that ponds are ephemeral features quickly draining through the porous ice, many persistently occupy the surface, insulating the underlying ice and maintaining elevated absorption levels. This persistence not only prolongs the warming effect but also alters the physical properties of the ice sheet, potentially influencing ice flow dynamics and crevasse formation due to differential melting rates.

Furthermore, the study sheds light on the geographic variability of ponding effects. Particular regions of Greenland, especially those at mid-elevations where temperatures hover near the melting point, exhibit pronounced ponding phenomena. This spatial heterogeneity suggests that regional melt projections could be substantially revised, with some areas experiencing more rapid ice loss than previously estimated. Such refined spatial understanding is crucial for improving regional predictions of sea level rise contributions from Greenland.

In addition to illuminating current melt dynamics, the implications for future climate scenarios are profound. Climate models that fail to account for the amplified radiative effect of meltwater ponding risk underestimating the pace and magnitude of Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss. Given that meltwater ponding is expected to increase with rising temperatures, this feedback could represent a tipping point in the ice sheet’s response to climate warming. The research underscores the necessity of integrating meltwater ponding processes into global climate models to better forecast future sea level trajectories.

The methodologies developed in this study also open new avenues for remote monitoring of ice sheet dynamics. By exploiting satellite-borne spectral instruments and thermal sensors, scientists can now track melt pond formation, evolution, and radiative effects in near real-time. Such monitoring capabilities will greatly enhance the predictive power of ice sheet models and improve early warning systems for rapid ice loss events.

Beyond the direct climatic implications, the study has broader relevance for understanding cryospheric processes globally. Meltwater ponding is not unique to Greenland but occurs on other glaciated regions, including the Antarctic Peninsula and mountain glaciers worldwide. The insights gained here provide a framework for investigating how surface hydrology interacts with radiative forcing across different cryospheric environments, potentially refining our understanding of global freshwater inputs to the oceans.

Importantly, the findings highlight the interconnectedness of surface hydrology, energy balance, and ice dynamics. Melt ponds not only influence melting rates but also impact ice sheet structural integrity by lubricating the ice-bed interface and promoting mechanical fracturing. This multi-faceted interplay signifies that hydrological features, often overlooked in climate models, can have outsized effects on ice sheet stability.

The research team advocates for continued interdisciplinary collaboration, combining glaciology, atmospheric science, remote sensing, and modeling expertise to fully unravel these complex interactions. Such integrative approaches are vital to develop robust predictive frameworks capable of anticipating Greenland’s future in a warming world.

This study reignites urgent discussions about the vulnerability of polar ice masses. As meltwater ponding exacerbates radiative warming of the ice surface, the Greenland Ice Sheet may contribute more rapidly to sea level rise than previously recognized. Coastal megacities, island nations, and low-lying regions may face heightened risks, underscoring the critical need for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies informed by cutting-edge science.

In essence, meltwater ponds are no longer minor features in the cryosphere—they are dynamic, influential actors reshaping the radiation and melting balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Addressing this newfound feedback in climate projections is not merely an academic exercise; rather, it is a pressing imperative for global climate resilience.

The nuanced picture revealed by this study invites a reassessment of how we understand ice sheet responses to climate warming. Incorporating meltwater ponding into next-generation climate and sea level models will better capture the complexities of the Earth system, enhancing our capacity to predict the trajectory of global change. This revelation marks a pivotal step forward in glaciology and climate science, transforming our grasp of polar processes and their planetary consequences.

As meltwater ponds silently pool across Greenland’s vast frozen expanse, they cast a disproportionately large shadow on the future of our planet’s climate. Their underestimated radiative effect serves as a reminder that even seemingly small surface features can have transformative impacts, urging the scientific community and society at large to deepen our engagement with the subtle intricacies of a changing cryosphere.

Subject of Research: Radiative effects of meltwater ponding on the Greenland Ice Sheet surface and its implications for melting dynamics and climate feedbacks.

Article Title: Meltwater ponding has an underestimated radiative effect on the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Article References:
Ryan, J.C., Cooper, M.G., Cooley, S.W. et al. Meltwater ponding has an underestimated radiative effect on the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Nat Commun 16, 8274 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62503-5

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Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential many times that of carbon dioxide over short timescales. Its fluxes from permafrost landscapes are governed by a complex interplay between microbial activity, soil thermal regimes, hydrological conditions, and vegetation cover, all of which fluctuate over time and space. The Tibetan Plateau, with its distinctive alpine climate and extensive permafrost grounds, is uniquely positioned to act both as a source and sink of methane. However, previous measurements have been scarce and sporadic, leaving significant gaps in our understanding of how these emissions evolve seasonally and across different terrain types.

The research team led by Huang et al. conducted intensive field campaigns encompassing multiple sites on the Plateau, employing eddy covariance towers and soil chamber measurements combined with remote sensing data. Such an integrated approach allowed the team to develop a comprehensive methane flux dataset with unprecedented spatial resolution over different seasons. By coupling these observations with a finely-tuned biogeochemical model, the study exposes not only the magnitude of methane emissions but also their drivers, be they environmental or biological.

One of the core revelations from this investigation is the pronounced seasonal variability in methane fluxes, with significant emissions concentrated in the warm months when permafrost thaws, leading to anaerobic soil conditions conducive to methanogenesis. Contrastingly, winter months see much lower fluxes, though the cold season methane dynamics remain crucial for understanding annual emission budgets. The study further delineates the heterogeneity across the region, highlighting that emissions are markedly higher in wetland and thawing permafrost areas compared to drier upland zones, reflecting the sensitivity of methane production to soil moisture and temperature gradients.

The alpine permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau undergoes continuous transformation due to rising air temperatures and altered precipitation patterns linked to global climate change. Such changes impact the active layer thickness — the topsoil layer that thaws during summer — and consequently modulate microbial activity responsible for methane generation. The research highlights how these environmental shifts drive the observed spatiotemporal flux patterns, underscoring the potential for a positive feedback loop wherein warming accelerates permafrost degradation, releasing more methane and intensifying atmospheric warming further.

Integrating spatially explicit measurements with process-based modeling enables the team to forecast future methane emissions under various climate scenarios. Their projections suggest a substantial increase in methane fluxes under continued warming trends, particularly in areas experiencing intensified thawing and hydrological changes. These findings have profound implications for climate models, many of which currently underestimate permafrost-related methane feedbacks due to insufficient regional data.

Besides environmental drivers, the team also investigates the role of ecosystem composition and microbial community structure in regulating methane dynamics. Plant functional types, such as sedges and mosses prevalent in peatlands, influence soil redox conditions and gas transport pathways, ultimately affecting methane emission rates. The coupling of ecological data with permafrost dynamics presents a multidimensional understanding of methane fluxes, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary perspectives in climate research.

Moreover, the study embraces the challenge provided by the region’s remoteness and harsh weather by utilizing remote sensing platforms, including satellite-based observations, to validate ground measurements and expand regional coverage. Such synergy between ground and space-based data enhances spatial extrapolation, allowing for more robust estimates of methane fluxes across inaccessible and starkly heterogeneous terrains of the Tibetan Plateau.

Importantly, the research illustrates that the interplay between permafrost thaw, hydrology, and biogeochemistry is not linear. Rather, episodic events like heavy precipitation, freeze-thaw cycles, and shifts in seasonal snow cover can provoke sudden bursts of methane emissions, complicating efforts to quantify net fluxes accurately. These dynamics highlight the necessity for continuous monitoring and finer temporal resolution in future permafrost studies.

This comprehensive reevaluation of methane dynamics in the Tibetan Plateau’s alpine permafrost challenges long-held assumptions that such cold environments are negligible methane sources. Instead, it positions this region as a critical hotspot whose methane emissions must be integrated into global greenhouse gas inventories to better predict future climate change trajectories.

Beyond its scientific ramifications, the study calls attention to the vulnerability of indigenous livelihoods and downstream ecosystems dependent on water resources emanating from the Tibetan Plateau. Changes in permafrost stability and associated methane release could herald broader environmental shifts with cascading socio-economic consequences, emphasizing the urgency of incorporating permafrost research into climate policy frameworks.

The study’s methodological innovations, combining multiscale observations and modeling, set a new benchmark for permafrost methane research. By providing a replicable framework, this work opens avenues for similar investigations in other high-altitude and high-latitude permafrost regions, enhancing our global understanding of permafrost-climate feedbacks.

As the world grapples with mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, the emergent knowledge from the Tibetan Plateau underscores the fragility and interconnectedness of Earth’s cryosphere and atmosphere. It raises a clarion call for intensified research, monitoring, and integrated climate action targeting these sensitive yet powerful natural methane reservoirs.

In conclusion, the revelation of complex and variable methane flux patterns across the Tibetan Plateau’s alpine permafrost not only enriches our understanding of regional carbon dynamics but also sharpens our predictive capabilities regarding future climate feedbacks. This research embodies a critical step towards resolving uncertainties embedded in the Earth system models, ultimately contributing to more informed global climate mitigation strategies.

Subject of Research: Methane fluxes and their spatiotemporal patterns in the alpine permafrost region of the Tibetan Plateau.

Article Title: Spatiotemporal patterns of methane fluxes across alpine permafrost region on the Tibetan Plateau.

Article References:
Huang, L., Qin, S., Kou, D. et al. Spatiotemporal patterns of methane fluxes across alpine permafrost region on the Tibetan Plateau. Nat Commun 16, 7474 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62699-6

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The Early Triassic epoch, immediately following the Permian-Triassic extinction—Earth’s most severe known biotic crisis—has long been characterized by exceptionally high global temperatures, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and prolonged ecological instability. Traditional models have attributed this super-greenhouse climate largely to massive volcanic outgassing associated with the Siberian Traps flood basalts. However, emerging geochemical data, sedimentological records, and advanced climate simulations now underscore the pivotal role that the destruction of global vegetation cover played in intensifying greenhouse conditions.

Xu and colleagues’ meticulous approach combined paleobotanical analyses with sophisticated climate modeling to reconstruct the feedback loops between land ecosystems and atmospheric processes. Their findings reveal how the widespread collapse of forests and other plant communities triggered a cascade of biophysical changes, including drastically reduced carbon sequestration, increased soil erosion, and altered surface albedo. These processes synergistically amplified greenhouse warming beyond the initial input from volcanic carbon emissions, sustaining elevated temperatures over millions of years and delaying ecological recovery.

The study elucidates the complex interplay between terrestrial ecosystems and climate, demonstrating that the loss of vegetation amplified atmospheric CO2 levels by disrupting the biological carbon pump. Without sufficient plant life to absorb carbon through photosynthesis, CO2 accumulated in the atmosphere, enhancing the greenhouse effect. This biotic feedback mechanism underscores the vulnerability of Earth’s climate system to changes in land cover, a dynamic that remains crucial for contemporary climate considerations.

Furthermore, sedimentary evidence analyzed by the authors highlights increased rates of soil and nutrient runoff into the oceans, which may have exacerbated marine anoxia and contributed to prolonged deformation of marine ecosystems in the Early Triassic. The disruption of hydrological cycles due to vegetation loss also likely intensified aridity in continental interiors, further stressing terrestrial biota and perpetuating a vicious cycle of environmental degradation and climate instability.

One of the most striking revelations of this research is the temporal persistence of this super-greenhouse state. The study’s climate models suggest that the loss of vegetation forced the Earth system into a state of energy imbalance, where increased solar radiation absorption by darkened, barren land surfaces reinforced atmospheric warming. This positive feedback mechanism prolonged elevated temperatures for an estimated five to ten million years, aligning closely with fossil data indicating delayed biotic recovery in the post-extinction interval.

The implications of these findings extend beyond paleoclimate reconstruction. They provide a cautionary tale for the modern era, in which anthropogenic deforestation and land-use changes risk triggering analogous feedback loops on a much shorter timescale. The Early Triassic super-greenhouse episode exemplifies how ecosystem collapse can intensify climate change, underscoring the necessity of protecting vegetative cover as a critical component of planetary health.

Additionally, the paper explores the mechanistic pathways by which vegetation collapse influenced atmospheric chemistry and climate. Changes in evapotranspiration rates, a key process by which plants regulate local and regional humidity, likely altered atmospheric moisture content and precipitation patterns. These shifts would have contributed to continental drying and the expansion of deserts, as supported by sedimentological proxies for aridity documented in the study.

This research also refines the stratigraphic timeline of the Early Triassic, integrating carbon isotope excursions and paleosol records to correlate episodes of vegetation loss with bursts of atmospheric CO2 increase. The high-resolution data allow for deeper insight into the sequence of environmental collapse, highlighting a series of feedback events rather than a singular catastrophic cause.

A particularly innovative aspect of the study lies in its use of coupled Earth system models that integrate vegetation dynamics, soil processes, ocean chemistry, and atmospheric physics. This holistic approach represents a significant advance over earlier models that treated biotic and abiotic systems separately, offering a more nuanced and interconnected understanding of Earth’s response to mass extinctions.

By framing the Early Triassic super-greenhouse event as a consequence of vegetation collapse, the authors challenge long-held assumptions in paleoclimate science while opening new avenues for research into the resilience and thresholds of terrestrial ecosystems. The study calls for further investigation into how ancient biosphere-climate interactions can inform projections of future climate trajectories and ecosystem responses to anthropogenic pressures.

The experimental protocols, drawing upon fossil plant assemblages from diverse geographic locations and integrating multidisciplinary datasets, exemplify the power of collaborative science in unraveling complex Earth system phenomena. This work is a testament to the importance of integrating geological, biological, and atmospheric sciences to reconstruct deep-time climate events with unprecedented resolution.

Moreover, the study emphasizes that terrestrial ecosystems should be viewed as active agents in climate regulation rather than passive victims. This paradigm shift is critical for improving Earth system models and refining geoengineering strategies aimed at mitigating climate change, where reforestation and restoration efforts are increasingly recognized as vital for maintaining carbon balance.

In conclusion, the findings presented by Xu, Yu, Yin, and collaborators redefine the Early Triassic super-greenhouse climate as a dramatic manifestation of biosphere-climate feedbacks precipitated by global vegetation collapse. This refined understanding not only illuminates the profound interconnectedness of life and climate across geological timescales but also serves as a stark reminder of the potentially irreversible consequences of ecosystem degradation in the Anthropocene.

Subject of Research: Early Triassic super-greenhouse climate dynamics influenced by terrestrial vegetation collapse

Article Title: Early Triassic super-greenhouse climate driven by vegetation collapse

Article References:
Xu, Z., Yu, J., Yin, H. et al. Early Triassic super-greenhouse climate driven by vegetation collapse. Nat Commun 16, 5400 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60396-y

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