The study, recently published in Nature Communications, meticulously dissects the practical and technological challenges inherent in this transition, emphasizing the urgency and scale of the undertaking. While the net-zero target has been a pivotal rallying point for policymakers and industries alike, the researchers argue that net-zero is merely a midpoint, a stepping stone towards a more radical goal: zero-fossil. The distinction is critical, grounded in the understanding that net-zero strategies frequently rely on offsetting emissions rather than wholly eradicating fossil use. Transitioning to zero-fossil thus eliminates reliance on carbon capture, storage, or forest capacity, demanding cleaner, direct solutions.

Central to the research is an advanced modeling framework that integrates energy demand projections with supply-side technological advancements across the EU’s diverse regions. This framework incorporates a broad array of sectoral energy usages – from transportation and industry to residential and commercial sectors – highlighting how each must be reimagined with near-complete electrification and renewable integration. The model simulates scenarios where fossil fuel reliance is steadily phased out by 2050 and beyond, emphasizing a technologic symphony that combines wind, solar, bioenergy, hydrogen, and advanced storage solutions to meet soaring electricity demands.

One of the pivotal findings from Schreyer and co-authors is the indispensable role of electrification, especially in traditionally fossil-fuel-heavy sectors such as transport and heavy industry. Electrification, bolstered by renewable capacity, represents the backbone of the zero-fossil energy system. However, the research dives deeper to identify that electrification alone is insufficient and must be complemented by energy carriers like green hydrogen and synthetic fuels, especially where direct electrification poses technological or economic barriers. This strategy ensures a resilient, flexible energy system capable of responding to intermittency and balancing supply and demand across temporal and spatial scales.

Beyond technological rearrangements, their analysis identifies a critical need to enhance energy efficiency aggressively. The path to zero-fossil necessitates not only cleaner supply but also smarter demand management. By reducing overall energy consumption through structural economic shifts, building retrofits, and behavioral changes, the EU can alleviate pressure on renewable capacities and storage requirements. The research highlights a multi-faceted efficiency push that aligns with circular economy principles, recognizing that every efficiency gain multiplies the system’s ability to function without fossil fuels.

A standout element of this work is the emphasis on sectoral coupling – the systemic integration between electric power, heating, transport, and industrial sectors. This coupling is a technological and logistical challenge that must harmonize the flow of energy carriers and optimize end-use flexibility. Utilizing excess electricity from renewables to produce hydrogen or power heat pumps exemplifies these synergies, where infrastructures traditionally operating in silos converge, enhancing system resilience and cost-effectiveness.

Moreover, the study addresses the pivotal role of renewable energy infrastructure expansion. To achieve zero-fossil status, the EU must accelerate the deployment of renewables at unprecedented rates. Offshore wind and solar PV are primary drivers, requiring both innovation in technology and extensive grid enhancements. The authors underscore that grid expansion and smart grid technologies are as crucial as generation itself, enabling efficient cross-border electricity trading and reducing curtailment losses, which can be significant in renewable-heavy systems.

Storage solutions also receive focused attention, as balancing fluctuating renewable inputs demands a portfolio of storage technologies, ranging from short-term electric batteries to long-duration thermal and chemical storage. The research suggests that advances in storage technology and widespread deployment will underpin the flexibility required for a 100% renewable energy supply. This also includes the utilization of power-to-X technologies, converting electricity into energy-dense molecules for use in transportation, heating, and industry, underscoring the interplay of innovation and system architecture.

Importantly, the research does not shy away from addressing the socio-economic implications. Transitioning to zero-fossil will be a colossal economic undertaking, requiring substantial investments and policy reforms designed to foster innovation, ensure equitable distribution of costs and benefits, and prevent energy poverty. Schreyer and team envision a coordinated policy framework capable of mobilizing public and private capital while fostering social acceptance and workforce transformation through retraining and education programs.

The environmental co-benefits of a zero-fossil strategy are immense and multifaceted. Beyond slashing carbon emissions, the reduction of air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and particulates will significantly improve public health outcomes across Europe. The authors discuss these synergies, highlighting how a fossil-free energy system aligns with broader sustainability goals, including biodiversity conservation and land use management, particularly when bioenergy scales are carefully managed to avoid ecosystem degradation.

Their comprehensive modeling also reflects upon the geopolitical shifts inherent to shedding fossil fuels. By dramatically reducing dependency on fossil fuel imports, the EU gains unprecedented energy sovereignty and enhances its resilience against volatile global markets. This independence could reshape global energy geopolitics, repositioning the EU as a leader in clean technology exports and climate policy, amplifying its influence in international negotiations.

Nevertheless, the researchers are clear-eyed about the uncertainties and risks. Technological breakthroughs, cost reductions in emerging clean technologies, and regulatory landscapes all hold pivotal sway in determining the feasibility and timeline of zero-fossil energy. They advocate for robust, adaptive pathways that can accommodate changing conditions and emergent challenges, prioritizing flexibility, innovation diffusion, and continuous monitoring.

In sum, Schreyer, Ueckerdt, Pietzcker, and their team craft a compelling, technically detailed narrative that pushes beyond the net-zero rhetoric pervasive in current climate discourse. Their vision for a zero-fossil energy system transforms the EU not just through decarbonization but by fundamentally reengineering energy production, distribution, and consumption. This study serves as both a blueprint and a call to action for governments, industries, and societies committed to a sustainable, fossil-independent future.

The research represents a pivotal turning point in energy transition science, invigorating debate about what a truly sustainable future entails. It combines multidisciplinary expertise with sophisticated modeling to provide an actionable roadmap aligned with the urgency demanded by climate imperatives. As the EU navigates this unprecedented transformation, this work lays the foundation upon which the continent’s energy future can be resilient, equitable, and fossil-free.

Subject of Research: The transformation of the European Union energy system from net-zero emissions targets to zero-fossil fuel dependency.

Article Title: From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system.

Article References:
Schreyer, F., Ueckerdt, F., Pietzcker, R. et al. From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system. Nat Commun 16, 10700 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66682-z

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66682-z

The energy profile across the BRICS is heavily skewed towards fossil fuels, which dominate the primary consumption matrix. Fossil fuel shares vary from 50% in Brazil to as high as 94% in South Africa. Coal, in particular, is the backbone of the energy structure in India, China, and South Africa, representing 55%, 56%, and 69% of their respective energy compositions. This entrenched dependence on carbon-intensive resources places the BRICS nations among the top contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for nearly 45% of worldwide emissions in 2022. Given ongoing economic and population growth, energy consumption and emissions are projected to rise further unless substantial structural changes are enacted.

Addressing these challenges is critical, especially considering the goals established by the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Transitioning away from a fossil fuel-dominated energy system is not only an environmental imperative but also a socio-economic necessity for the BRICS countries. Recognizing this, a dedicated research team from Tsinghua University developed a comprehensive study that systematically explores energy transition pathways customized to the unique socio-economic conditions and development trajectories of these emerging economies.

The centerpiece of this investigation is the application of a specialized computable general equilibrium model (CGEM) tailored to evaluate the economic and environmental implications of transitioning towards low-carbon energy systems within the BRICS framework. This model integrates key parameters including each nation’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and their respective carbon neutrality target years, allowing for accurate simulation of policy and market responses under different decarbonization scenarios. The CGEM approach facilitates not only the mapping of emission pathways but also the assessment of associated financial costs and investment requirements, providing a holistic view of the energy transition landscape.

Results from this modeling exercise offer promising insights. The study projects that by the time the BRICS nations reach carbon neutrality, non-fossil fuels will constitute significant portions of their energy mix: 85% in both Brazil and China, 77% in Russia, 67% in India, and 82% in South Africa. This marked shift from coal, oil, and natural gas to renewables and other clean energy sources is anticipated to drive substantial reductions in CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, the electrification of energy end-use sectors will accelerate, with estimated rates reaching between 60% and 79% across these countries. Such electrification is pivotal for improving energy efficiency and expanding clean energy access, enabling greater integration of renewables and advanced technologies.

From an economic standpoint, the transition entails considerable investment in energy infrastructure and technologies. The study estimates that investments will represent between 0.8% and 3.4% of each country’s GDP throughout the transition phase. Though significant, these expenditures are aligned with mitigation costs approximating $250 to $390 per ton of CO₂ abated, values comparable to those observed in developed economies. This alignment indicates that the BRICS countries possess the economic capability to finance their transitions without incurring prohibitive costs, assuming robust policy frameworks and coordinated international support.

The research also underscores the importance of regional and international cooperation. While identifying individual country pathways is critical, fostering collaborative strategies among BRICS members has the potential to accelerate the deployment of low-carbon technologies, optimize resource allocation, and harmonize policy instruments. Effective cooperation could amplify the pace of the energy transition, achieving stronger aggregate impacts on emissions mitigation and sustainable development outcomes.

Xiaodan Huang, the paper’s corresponding author and an associate researcher at the Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy at Tsinghua University, emphasized the pivotal role of the BRICS nations in global climate efforts. Huang noted, “The BRICS countries account for 45% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Exploring their pathways toward carbon neutrality is central to global success in limiting climate change.”

This study stands out by incorporating international commitments and specific national timelines into the modeling framework. Previous research has often relied on generic integrated assessment models (IAMs), computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, or bottom-up optimization techniques without spatially or politically nuanced considerations of each BRICS country’s targets. By contrast, this research contextualizes transition pathways within the real-world policy environment, allowing for more precise, actionable insights.

The publication also discusses the expected socio-technical shifts necessary for achieving the projected energy system transformations. These include increased electrification in transportation, industry, and buildings, larger shares of renewables such as wind, solar, and hydropower, and the gradual phase-out of coal-fired power plants. Such changes will require extensive upgrades to grid infrastructure, development of storage technologies, and enhanced energy efficiency standards.

Moreover, the study highlights economic diversification as a significant byproduct of the transition process. By reducing reliance on fossil fuel extraction and related industries, BRICS countries stand to foster growth in emerging green sectors, generate employment opportunities, and enhance overall economic resilience. These dynamics reinforce the argument that climate action and economic development can be pursued synergistically, contrary to traditional dichotomies.

Meanwhile, the study supports policy recommendations designed to incentivize investments in clean energy, implement carbon pricing mechanisms, and enhance knowledge sharing among BRICS nations. It advocates for the creation of joint platforms for technology exchange and financing cooperation, thereby leveraging the strengths and capacities of each member country to achieve common goals.

Supporting this research are contributors from the Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy at Tsinghua University—including Danwei Zhang and Runxin Yu—as well as Kaiwei Zhu from the Research Institute of Carbon Neutrality at Shanghai Jiao Tong University. The project received funding through the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 72140005) and the International Joint Mission on Climate Change and Carbon Neutrality, reflecting the strategic importance of this work within China’s scientific and policy landscapes.

The findings usher in a new era of understanding regarding energy transition pathways in major emerging economies. By elucidating the complexities and opportunities inherent within the BRICS nations, this study offers an indispensable reference for policymakers, investors, and researchers engaged in global climate change mitigation and sustainable energy development.

Subject of Research: Energy system transformation and carbon neutrality pathways in BRICS nations.

Article Title: A comparative study of energy system transformation toward carbon neutrality in BRICS nations.

News Publication Date: 3-Apr-2025.

Web References:

• https://doi.org/10.26599/ECM.2025.9400002
• https://www.sciopen.com/journal/3006-9203
• https://www.sciopen.com/home
• https://mc03.manuscriptcentral.com/jecm

Image Credits: Energy and Climate Management, Tsinghua University Press.

Keywords: BRICS, energy transition, carbon neutrality, fossil fuels, greenhouse gas emissions, CGE model, electrification, renewable energy, Paris Agreement, climate mitigation, economic growth, energy investment.