Between June and July of 2025, the employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities — defined as the percentage of individuals aged 16 to 64 who are employed out of the total population of the same age group — decreased notably from 38.0 percent to 37.0 percent. This one percentage point decline underscores an employment dip that contrasts sharply with the employment stability observed among people without disabilities, whose employment-to-population ratio remained constant at 75.1 percent during the same period. This divergence raises important questions about the resilience of workforce inclusion policies and the efficacy of existing support structures amid shifting national economic conditions.

The labor force participation rate, a complementary metric measuring not just employment but also active job seeking within the population, further illustrates evolving dynamics. For people with disabilities, this rate decreased slightly from 41.9 percent to 41.6 percent, suggesting a marginal withdrawal from the workforce or job-seeking activities. Conversely, individuals without disabilities experienced a modest increase in labor force participation, climbing from 78.4 to 78.5 percent. These contrasting trends may signal a bifurcation in labor market engagement that warrants close monitoring to understand long-term implications for disability employment equity.

Notable commentary from experts such as John O’Neill, PhD, director of the Center for Employment and Disability Research at Kessler Foundation, places these findings within broader temporal and socio-economic contexts. According to O’Neill, the observed one percentage point decline fits within a larger plateau of employment trends for people with disabilities seen over the past two years. This plateau suggests a period of relative stagnation rather than rapid decline, indicative of underlying structural challenges that remain unaddressed despite ongoing efforts to enhance employment outcomes for this population.

More revealing is the interpretation offered by Andrew Houtenville, PhD, professor of economics and director of the University of New Hampshire Institute on Disability. Houtenville highlights a subtle yet crucial divergence between the employment-to-population ratio and labor force participation rate for people with disabilities. The lesser decrease in labor force participation compared to employment implies an increase in active job-seeking despite falling employment figures. This trend could reflect economic vulnerability pushing more individuals with disabilities to remain engaged in the labor market, even amidst adverse conditions.

The economic backdrop against which these shifts occur is complex and fraught with uncertainty. Houtenville warns of emerging stagflation — a troubling economic phenomenon characterized by stagnant growth coupled with inflationary pressures exacerbated by delayed tariff impacts. Under such conditions, many labor market participants face declining real incomes and fewer job opportunities. For people with disabilities, who already experience disproportionate poverty rates — with nearly one-third reportedly living below the poverty line — these macroeconomic pressures translate into heightened urgency to maintain or increase labor market engagement despite increasing barriers.

When extending the temporal scale to examine year-to-year changes, the employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities shows a slight upward tick, increasing from 36.9 percent in July 2024 to 37.0 percent in July 2025. This marginal improvement contrasts mildly declining ratios among people without disabilities, whose rate decreased from 75.2 to 75.1 percent during the same period. Additionally, the labor force participation rate for people with disabilities improved appreciably from 40.5 to 41.6 percent year-over-year, reinforcing the narrative of longer-term incremental progress despite recent monthly setbacks.

Within the overall U.S. workforce, people with disabilities aged 16 to 64 numbered approximately 6,535,000 in July 2025, making up about 4.3 percent of the total 152,418,000 workers. This demographic proportion highlights both the significance of people with disabilities in the labor market and the ongoing challenges related to equity and inclusion. It also reflects the critical need for refined policy interventions and employer practices designed to support sustained and meaningful employment for this sizeable community.

The nTIDE project distinguishes itself by producing customized employment statistics refined from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. By focusing specifically on working-age populations (ages 16-64) and synthesizing complex labor market indicators, the nTIDE report offers an indispensable resource for policymakers, advocates, and researchers dedicated to understanding and improving the employment conditions of people with disabilities. The semi-monthly cadence ensures timely insights responsive to economic fluctuations.

Accompanying each nTIDE release, live Lunch & Learn webinars provide interactive forums where experts engage with stakeholders to interpret the data, address emerging questions, and discuss policy and community impacts. These sessions facilitate vital knowledge exchanges and help translate statistical data into actionable strategies that can counteract employment disparities faced by people with disabilities in volatile economic climates.

The partnership behind nTIDE encompasses Kessler Foundation, a leader in rehabilitation research devoted to enhancing outcomes for people with disabilities, and the University of New Hampshire Institute on Disability, which has a long-standing track record in disability-focused research and policy development. This collaboration ensures that nTIDE findings are grounded in both rigorous data analysis and a deep understanding of disability-related socio-economic factors.

Understanding and addressing the interplay between employment trends and labor force participation among people with disabilities remains paramount as the U.S. navigates post-pandemic economic recovery, trade tensions, and structural inequalities. The nuanced patterns revealed in the latest nTIDE report underscore the need for innovative policy responses, employer engagement strategies, and targeted supports that can help this vulnerable population not only retain but also gain meaningful employment opportunities.

Above all, these trends reaffirm the critical role of sustained, data-driven advocacy and research partnerships in promoting equity in the labor market. By continuing to monitor and analyze complex employment dynamics, efforts such as nTIDE can illuminate pathways to foster an inclusive economy where disability does not remain a barrier to the full participation and prosperity of all workers.

Subject of Research: Employment trends and labor market participation of people with disabilities in the United States

Article Title: National Trends in Disability Employment Signal Challenges Amid Economic Uncertainty: July 2025 nTIDE Report

News Publication Date: August 1, 2025

Web References:

• Kessler Foundation
• University of New Hampshire Institute on Disability
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Jobs Report
• nTIDE Portal

Image Credits: Kessler Foundation

Keywords: Disability employment, labor force participation, employment-to-population ratio, economic stagnation, disability inclusion, labor market trends, U.S. workforce statistics, disability research

The month-to-month analysis comparing May and June 2025 highlights that the employment-to-population ratio—a core metric reflecting the proportion of individuals working relative to the total population—remained static at 38.0 percent for people with disabilities aged 16 to 64. Contrastingly, individuals without disabilities witnessed a modest increase, moving from 74.8 percent to 75.1 percent. This differential stability points to persistent challenges faced by disabled workers in gaining employment despite incremental economic shifts.

The labor force participation rate, which captures those employed or actively seeking employment, rose marginally among people with disabilities from 41.4 percent in May to 41.9 percent in June 2025, indicating a subtle increase in workforce engagement. Similarly, the non-disabled population saw a rise from 77.8 percent to 78.4 percent. This divergence between participation and employment rates among people with disabilities suggests that more individuals are entering or re-entering the labor market, though this has yet to translate into significant employment gains.

Experts interpret these patterns as symptomatic of broader economic and policy uncertainties. John O’Neill, PhD, director of the Center for Employment and Disability Research at Kessler Foundation, notes that employer hesitation to adjust hiring practices remains prevalent, largely awaiting clarity on federal budget allocations and their downstream impacts on state and local economies. This cautious stance is consistent with observed labor trends during periods of fiscal unpredictability.

Adding further context, Andrew Houtenville, PhD, professor of economics at the University of New Hampshire Institute on Disability, explains that employment rates rarely shift rapidly amid economic slowdowns due to employers’ reluctance to lose workers who are hard to replace. However, the uptick in labor force participation could signal that families and individuals with disabilities are increasingly compelled to seek work proactively as a hedge against economic volatility, even if job availability remains constrained.

A year-over-year comparison between June 2024 and June 2025 reflects a slight improvement in employment outcomes for people with disabilities, with the employment-to-population ratio rising from 37.6 to 38.0 percent. During the same period, the ratio remained stable at 75.1 percent for those without disabilities. Such incremental progress, while modest, may indicate a gradual shift in labor market inclusion.

Similarly, labor force participation for people with disabilities held steady at an increased rate of 41.9 percent in June 2025 compared to 41.4 percent a year earlier. For non-disabled individuals, participation rates remained constant at 78.4 percent, reinforcing the disparity in engagement trajectories between these groups.

The workforce composition in June 2025 included 6,654,000 workers with disabilities aged 16 to 64, representing 4.4 percent of the total U.S. workforce of 152,690,000. This figure provides an essential benchmark for assessing both representation and the potential untapped labor pool within this demographic segment.

The technical nuance embedded in nTIDE’s methodology is noteworthy. While grounded in U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, nTIDE refines its analyses by customizing population parameters to the working-age group of 16 to 64 years, enhancing specificity to the prime labor market cohort. Moreover, nTIDE integrates indicators such as the employment-to-population ratio and labor force participation rate to distinguish between actual employment levels and the extent of active job-seeking behavior in the disabled and non-disabled populations.

nTIDE’s ongoing monitoring and bi-monthly reporting offer a vital real-time perspective on how macroeconomic factors and policy shifts influence the labor market experiences of people with disabilities. These insights serve not only academic and policy-making audiences but also inform advocacy and employer engagement strategies aimed at improving employment outcomes.

Complementing the data reports, nTIDE conducts Lunch & Learn webinars to disseminate findings, foster dialogue, and field public queries about disability employment trends. The July 3, 2025 session features expert panelists including Josie Badger of the SPAN Parent Advocacy Network alongside researchers from Kessler Foundation and the University of New Hampshire, further emphasizing the commitment to knowledge exchange and community involvement.

The collaboration between Kessler Foundation and the University of New Hampshire Institute on Disability epitomizes the integration of rigorous research with practical advocacy. Kessler Foundation’s comprehensive focus on rehabilitation research transcends mere data analysis by developing and testing interventions that target improving quality of life and workforce participation for individuals facing neurological, developmental, and physical disabilities.

As economic conditions remain fluid, these findings invite a deeper exploration of structural barriers, employer incentives, and policy frameworks that influence hiring and retention of workers with disabilities. The steady employment rates combined with rising labor force participation highlight both persistent challenges and signs of resilience within this vital segment of the American workforce.

This expanded understanding permits stakeholders across government, private sector, and community organizations to tailor strategies that can better support employment inclusion, addressing not only statistical measures but also the nuanced lived experiences underlying workforce participation data for people with disabilities.

Subject of Research: Employment trends and labor market participation among people with disabilities compared to those without disabilities in the United States.

Article Title: National Trends in Disability Employment: Stability Amidst Shifting Labor Force Participation

News Publication Date: July 3, 2025

Web References:

• https://kesslerfoundation.org/
• http://www.researchondisability.org/
• http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
• http://www.ResearchonDisability.org/nTIDE

Image Credits: Kessler Foundation

Keywords: Economics, Economics research, Socioeconomics, Population studies

The nTIDE report’s Month-to-Month analysis, comparing March 2025 with April 2025, reveals a marginal decrease in the employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities aged 16 to 64—from 37.5 percent to 37.4 percent—signifying a subtle contraction of 0.1 percentage points. Contrastingly, individuals without disabilities witnessed a modest increase in their employment-to-population ratio, rising from 74.8 percent to 75.1 percent, marking a 0.3 percentage point gain. These fluctuations, while numerically minor, underscore differential responses in labor market engagement between disabled and non-disabled populations, reflecting underlying economic currents and employer behaviors.

The employment-to-population ratio is a critical macroeconomic indicator reflecting the proportion of individuals actively working within a defined population age range. Its sensitivity to economic cycles and labor market conditions renders it an essential metric for understanding employment accessibility and inclusivity among distinct demographic groups. The data suggests that stability in employment ratios amidst broader economic uncertainty may signal a buffering effect or a lag in response to external pressures such as tariff impacts and global trade tensions.

An equally pivotal metric, the labor force participation rate, which encompasses those actively employed plus individuals actively seeking work, experienced a slight uptick for people with disabilities, rising from 40.9 percent to 41 percent between March and April 2025. Meanwhile, the participation rate for those without disabilities dipped marginally from 78 percent to 77.9 percent. This differential trend implies nuanced behavioral shifts within these cohorts, potentially reflective of adaptive strategies by workers with disabilities or changes in employer recruitment patterns.

Economic experts associated with the nTIDE report offer interpretative insights into these tentative movements. John O’Neill, PhD, director of the Center for Employment and Disability Research at Kessler Foundation, posits that employers may be accelerating procurement and production efforts in anticipation of increased tariffs. This defensive positioning could stabilize employment figures temporarily, thereby delaying potential downturns in labor market participation. Such dynamics emphasize the importance of examining microeconomic behaviors within the broader macroeconomic framework.

Further elucidation is provided by Andrew Houtenville, PhD, professor of economics and director of the Institute on Disability at the University of New Hampshire. Dr. Houtenville highlights the conceptual framework of labor market indicators functioning as "lag indicators,” where shifts in employment and participation tend to trail behind real-time economic growth metrics like Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This temporal decoupling suggests that the observed data may not yet fully capture the repercussions of the slowing economy and tariff uncertainties, which may manifest in future job market contractions or expansion.

Year-over-year comparisons expose more pronounced trends. The employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities decreased from 37.9 percent in April 2024 to 37.4 percent in April 2025, a decline of 0.5 percentage points or approximately 1.3 percent. Notably, the ratio for people without disabilities remained flat at 75.1 percent during the same period. These data points illustrate a gradual erosion of employment rates for people with disabilities over the span of twelve months, underscoring persistent systemic challenges despite incremental progress.

Conversely, the labor force participation rate for people with disabilities rose from 40.6 percent in April 2024 to 41 percent in April 2025, while a slight increase was also observed for people without disabilities, moving from 77.8 percent to 77.9 percent. These statistics highlight a paradox wherein participation in the labor market is increasing despite a concomitant decrease in actual employment, pointing toward a potential rise in active job-seeking behavior amid constrained hiring opportunities.

The current workforce composition includes approximately 6.29 million workers with disabilities aged 16 to 64, representing 4.1 percent of the total employed U.S. labor force of around 152.7 million individuals. This quantification not only affirms the representational scale of workers with disabilities but also underscores the criticality of tailored policy and programmatic measures to enhance equitable employment outcomes within a competitive labor market environment.

Each monthly nTIDE release is accompanied by a Lunch & Learn webinar, disseminated via a live Zoom broadcast, designed to foster stakeholder engagement through real-time Q&A sessions. These forums provide crucial opportunities for dialogue, dissemination of research findings, and collaborative dialogue among employment experts, advocates, and policymakers. The May 2, 2025 session features guest presenter Katherine Neas from The Arc, alongside Drs. John O’Neill, Debra Brucker, and Denise Rozell from the Association of University Centers on Disabilities (AUCD), emphasizing multidisciplinary perspectives on disability employment.

The nTIDE project operates under funding from both the National Institute on Disability, Independent Living, and Rehabilitation Research (NIDILRR) and Kessler Foundation. Through methodical customization of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, nTIDE offers gender-aggregated, working-age population statistics that differ from raw BLS datasets by refining scope and analytical focus to better illuminate the employment realities faced by people with disabilities.

Kessler Foundation, a nonprofit leader in rehabilitation research, is globally recognized for advancing knowledge in cognitive and physical recovery following neurological injury or disease. Their efforts extend into driving innovative employment programming aimed at expanding workforce participation for those with neurological and developmental disabilities. Complementing Kessler’s efforts, the Institute on Disability at the University of New Hampshire continues its commitment to advancing policies and practices that promote quality of life and workforce inclusivity for disabled populations.

In summary, the May 2025 nTIDE report offers a granular look at employment trends indicating relative short-term stability amidst emerging economic challenges, yet it also signals persistent structural impediments for workers with disabilities. The interplay between employment ratios, labor participation, and macroeconomic factors illustrates a complex labor market landscape awaiting further evolution. Continued monitoring and responsive policy interventions remain paramount in fostering inclusivity and narrowing the employment gap for millions of Americans with disabilities.

The ongoing collection and synthesis of disability employment data remain vital to understanding labor market dynamics and informing initiatives aimed at equitable workforce integration. As the economy navigates uncertain terrain, the nTIDE report stands as an essential resource bridging rigorous statistical analysis with practical, policy-relevant insights, ensuring that the voices and experiences of workers with disabilities remain central to national economic discourse.

Subject of Research: Employment trends and labor market participation of people with disabilities compared to those without disabilities in the United States.

Article Title: National Trends in Disability Employment Signal Short-Term Stability Amid Economic Uncertainty

News Publication Date: May 2, 2025

Web References:

• https://www.kesslerfoundation.org/
• http://www.researchondisability.org/
• http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
• http://www.ResearchonDisability.org/nTIDE

Image Credits: Credit: Kessler Foundation

Keywords: Unemployment, Scientific organizations, Population studies, Political science, Economics, Social studies of science, Social research