Pollinators underpin much of the food we eat and the ecosystems we depend on, yet the ripple effects of pollinator decline – from flower to fork and beyond – remain poorly understood by many of the actors whose decisions affect them. VALOR (VALues and dependence of society on pollinatORs) is a multi-actor project working to co-develop a comprehensive, systems-based approach that reveals these cascading impacts, empowering landowners, businesses, and policymakers to better understand their relationship with pollinators. The project will produce a suite of co-developed tools enabling these actors to assess their own risks and exposure, replicate VALOR’s methods, and apply its models directly.

To ensure its outputs remain openly accessible and easy to build on well beyond the project’s lifespan, VALOR has opened a collection in the Research Ideas and Outcomes (RIO) journal. The collection is designed to serve as a hub for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners, gathering both conventional outputs – such as research papers, reports, and protocols – and unconventional ones, including policy briefs, methodologies, deliverables and project reports.

The first publication in the collection is an abridged version of VALOR’s Description of Action (DoA). The paper lays out the project’s framework in full: its objectives, ambition, and background, along with a detailed account of its methodology, including the project’s multidisciplinary approach, open science and data management practices. It also explains how VALOR’s results are expected to feed into broader outcomes, the challenges the project aims to address, and its strategies for dissemination, exploitation, communication, and intellectual property management. The DoA gives readers a transparent, citable entry point into the project’s full scope. As VALOR progresses, the RIO collection will continue to grow, hosting the project’s future outputs.

Access the VALOR topical collection in RIO.

VALOR receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101181169. Views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or European Research Executive Agency (REA). Neither the EU nor REA can be held responsible for them.
 

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Horizon Europe

Historically, global attention has fixated on deforestation, largely due to its visible impact on carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. However, this new research underscores that agriculture-driven transformation of non-forest ecosystems is equally consequential, albeit less conspicuous in mainstream environmental discourse. The researchers employed advanced remote sensing technologies integrated with land-use datasets to map and quantify agricultural expansion from 2000 to 2020 across multiple continents, uncovering patterns and trends essential for understanding anthropogenic pressures on diverse biomes. Their approach harnessed satellite imagery at high spatial and temporal resolutions, enabling a granular analysis of landscape changes that had previously eluded traditional mapping efforts.

The findings reveal that non-forest ecosystems, which are rich reservoirs of biodiversity and perform vital ecological functions such as carbon sequestration, water regulation, and soil conservation, are under intensifying threat from agricultural encroachment. This intensification is driven by the escalating global demand for food, feed, and bioenergy crops, which propels land clearance activities into increasingly marginal and ecologically sensitive areas. Regions across the Americas, Sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Asia showed pronounced hotspots of conversion, where extensive tracts of natural grasslands, savannas, and wetlands have been cleared or altered to accommodate cropping and pasture needs.

One of the salient aspects of this study is its illumination of the spatial heterogeneity of agricultural expansion. Unlike forest conversion, which often occurs in large contiguous blocks, non-forest ecosystem conversion comprises a mosaic of fragmented and sometimes small-scale changes scattered across diverse landscapes. This mosaic pattern is critical to recognize because it affects ecosystem connectivity, habitat quality, and species survival in complex ways that differ significantly from large-scale deforestation. The researchers emphasize that conservation strategies must therefore be tailored to address these nuanced spatial configurations.

The study also advances our understanding of the socio-economic drivers underpinning agricultural expansion into non-forest ecosystems. Population growth, market demands, policy shifts, and technological developments all interplay to forge complex landscapes of land use. For instance, the study found correlations between expansion into grasslands and regional food policy reforms that encouraged cereal cultivation, as well as economic stimuli favoring livestock production. In Sub-Saharan Africa, expansion patterns paralleled demographic pressures compounded by limited access to agricultural intensification technologies, pushing farmers toward land clearance as a rational livelihood strategy.

From a climate perspective, the conversion of non-forest ecosystems carries profound implications. These ecosystems often represent significant carbon sinks, storing large amounts of organic carbon in soils and vegetation. Disturbing these landscapes releases stored carbon into the atmosphere, thereby exacerbating greenhouse gas emissions and destabilizing local climate regulation services. The researchers estimate that the cumulative carbon emissions from these conversions during the study period are comparable to notable sources of deforestation emissions, challenging previous assumptions that deforestation alone dominates agricultural land-use emissions.

In terms of biodiversity, the degradation of non-forest ecosystems undermines the survival of many endemic and specialized species uniquely adapted to these habitats. The encroachment fragments habitats and disrupts ecological networks, leading to population declines and species extinctions. The study highlights critical diversity hotspots intersecting with agricultural frontiers, urging an integrated approach that reconciles agricultural productivity with habitat protection. Protecting these areas requires recognizing their unique ecological values, which are often underrepresented in international conservation priorities focused primarily on forest biomes.

Technologically, the research benefited from the integration of machine learning algorithms to classify land cover changes at a fine scale, differentiating agricultural expansions from other land transformations such as urbanization or natural disturbances. The employment of multi-source data helped overcome uncertainties inherent in single-source imagery analysis and enhanced the temporal fidelity of land-use change detection. This methodological innovation sets a new benchmark for global land-use monitoring and provides a replicable framework for future studies aiming to track dynamic human-environment interactions.

Importantly, the study critiques current global land-use policies and monitoring frameworks for their limited scope regarding non-forest ecosystem protections. Many national and international strategies tend to prioritize forest conservation, inadvertently sidelining non-forest systems that lack formal protection status. The authors advocate for the adoption of more inclusive land management policies that explicitly integrate non-forest ecosystem conservation into agricultural planning and climate mitigation frameworks. They argue that aligning food security goals with environmental sustainability requires nuanced land-use governance informed by comprehensive spatial data like that provided in this study.

The global urgency of addressing agricultural expansion into non-forest ecosystems is further underscored by projections that food demand will increase substantially by 2050 due to population growth and dietary changes. Without intervention, the pressure to convert fragile ecosystems will intensify, escalating the risks posed to global biodiversity, ecosystem resilience, and climate regulation. This study’s identification of high-risk zones serves as a crucial early-warning system that can direct investment toward sustainable intensification, restoration, and conservation measures before irreversible degradation occurs.

Moreover, the study’s findings have profound implications for international climate agreements and biodiversity conventions. Integrating non-forest ecosystem dynamics into national greenhouse gas inventories and biodiversity action plans will enhance countries’ capacities to meet their targets. The authors emphasize that non-forest ecosystems must receive comparable attention to forests within frameworks such as the Paris Agreement and the Convention on Biological Diversity. Doing so will expand the portfolio of natural climate solutions and biodiversity conservation strategies.

The research also highlights opportunities for leveraging sustainable agricultural practices to mitigate environmental impacts in non-forest ecosystems. Agroecological approaches, landscape restoration, and conservation agriculture can help balance production with ecosystem function. The authors suggest that targeted incentives and technical support for farmers operating in vulnerable landscapes could significantly reduce the rate of expansion into natural habitats while maintaining productivity.

Critically, the study calls for enhanced collaboration among stakeholders—from local communities and farmers to national governments and international organizations—to develop cross-sectoral policies that recognize the multipurpose values of non-forest ecosystems. This holistic approach is essential to generate equitable solutions that support rural livelihoods while safeguarding ecological integrity. Participatory land-use planning and inclusive governance mechanisms are recommended to foster such integration.

In conclusion, this research marks a major advancement in understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural expansion into non-forest ecosystems. By shedding light on this underappreciated dimension of land-use change, the study provides a foundation for more balanced environmental management and paves the way for improved conservation outcomes. The global hotspots identified represent focal points for urgent action to prevent further degradation and promote a sustainable coexistence of agriculture and natural ecosystems in a rapidly changing world.

As the global community confronts the intertwined challenges of environmental sustainability and food security, this study amplifies the imperative to look beyond forests and incorporate the diverse array of terrestrial ecosystems into conservation and agricultural frameworks. The methodologies and insights presented hold transformative potential for achieving a future where agricultural development and ecosystem preservation are not competing aims but complementary components of a resilient planet.

Subject of Research: Agricultural expansion into non-forest ecosystems and identification of global hotspots for this expansion.

Article Title: Identifying global hotspots of agricultural expansion into non-forest ecosystems.

Article References:
Kan, S., Meng, J., Persson, U.M. et al. Identifying global hotspots of agricultural expansion into non-forest ecosystems. Nat Commun 16, 10739 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65769-x

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65769-x