The study, published in The Quarterly Journal of Economics, used an elegant experimental design to probe moral intuitions about distributive justice. Participants were asked to decide how bonuses should be allocated to real workers on an online labor market platform, choosing between allocation based on measured performance and allocation through a random lottery. This approach allowed the researchers to observe whether people reward merit or tolerate chance when real money is at stake for actual workers, rather than merely recording abstract opinions. The same participants were then asked about their support for redistribution through policy measures, including higher taxes on the wealthy, giving the team a direct window into the connection between private fairness judgments and public economic preferences.

The headline result is that, on average, the global population is substantially more willing to accept an unequal distribution of wealth when it is based on work rather than on pure chance. Earnings that flow from effort, skill and achievement are widely regarded as deserved, while windfalls produced by the roll of a dice are viewed with far more suspicion and are far more likely to trigger support for redistribution. In other words, inequality is not a single moral category. Two societies with identical levels of income dispersion may judge that dispersion in profoundly different ways depending on whether the rich earned their position or simply got lucky.

Yet this merit-based view of fairness is not universal, and here the study delivers its most provocative findings. The belief that prosperity achieved without personal effort is undeserved is strongest in countries with democratic political systems that are richer, more equal and more individualistic. Switzerland emerges as a paradigmatic case: the Swiss population places exceptional value on achievement through personal effort and is comparatively tolerant of income gaps produced by hard work and performance. At the same time, the Swiss remain open to a degree of redistribution, particularly in cases where inequality is clearly grounded in luck rather than merit. The moral logic seems to be that society should cushion the unlucky but need not penalize the successful.

In sharp contrast, the researchers documented a high level of acceptance of luck in several non-Western countries, with China and India standing out as prominent examples. In these societies, majorities were not only more accepting of prosperity gained by chance; they were also opposed to redistributing wealth that had been acquired through luck. This finding upends the assumption, common in Western economics and political philosophy, that chance-based inequality is morally illegitimate everywhere and that luck should be neutralized through taxation and transfer programs. Almås suggests that cultural and other factors underpin these divergent attitudes, and she indicates that future work will examine to what extent differences in redistributive preferences are associated with different religious beliefs, which may shape whether fortune is seen as a private blessing or a collective concern.

The study also tested an alternative explanation for why people might tolerate inequality even when they find it unfair. Redistribution, after all, is not costless. High earners may be believed to work less when redistributive taxes are in place, shrinking the economic pie and reducing incentives. If such efficiency concerns drive tolerance of inequality, then attitudes should correlate with beliefs about the economic costs of taxation rather than with moral judgments about the source of income. The analysis, however, found that this factor plays a much smaller role in the global acceptance of inequality than the origin of that inequality itself. Luck versus merit, it turns out, is the decisive axis along which people around the world evaluate whether a distribution deserves their approval.

These results carry important methodological lessons for the social sciences. Much of what economists and psychologists claim about human fairness norms has been built on studies of so-called WEIRD populations, that is, Western, educated, industrialized, rich and democratic societies. The findings reveal a significant contrast between Western and non-Western societies, demonstrating that conclusions drawn from Western samples cannot simply be generalized to humanity at large. A person in Zurich and a person in Delhi may look at the same distribution of income and reach opposite moral verdicts, not because one is mistaken about the facts, but because they are drawing on fundamentally different frameworks for justifying economic outcomes.

The practical implications extend well beyond the academy. Debates over progressive taxation, welfare programs and executive compensation are often framed as battles between egalitarians and defenders of the free market, with the underlying assumption that people respond to inequality itself. This research suggests that framing is incomplete. Public support for redistribution is likely to depend on the narrative attached to inequality, whether citizens believe the wealthy earned their position through effort or stumbled into it through inheritance, connections or chance. Policymakers who ignore the moral source of economic disparities may misread public opinion, and campaigns for or against redistribution may succeed or fail based on which account of merit dominates the public conversation.

For Almås and her colleagues, the dataset represents a foundation for a new generation of research on the moral justification of inequality. By covering eighty percent of the world’s population with a consistent experimental protocol, the study offers an unprecedented map of how fairness norms vary across cultures, political systems and levels of economic development. Understanding how societies morally justify inequality, and how those justifications in turn shape attitudes toward redistribution, is essential for anyone seeking to explain why some democracies embrace high taxes and generous welfare states while others resist them. The study does not settle whether luck or merit should matter, but it makes unmistakably clear that, in the court of global public opinion, not all inequality is judged equally, and the verdict differs dramatically depending on where you ask the question.

Subject of Research: Cross-national study of fairness preferences and attitudes toward income inequality and redistribution

Article Title: Luck or merit? Not all inequality is equally acceptable.

Article References: Luck or merit? Not all inequality is equally acceptable.. (n.d.). Original publication

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: Not provided

Keywords: inequality, fairness, redistribution, merit, luck, economic preferences, University of Zurich, cross-cultural study, taxation, behavioral economics, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Ingvild Almås