The stakes of this testing gap are considerable. ER-positive, HER2-negative disease accounts for roughly 70 percent of all breast cancer cases and, after relapse, is responsible for most breast cancer deaths. Endocrine therapies that disrupt estrogen receptor signaling remain the backbone of treatment, often combined with CDK4/6 inhibitors as first-line therapy. Yet most patients eventually progress, typically within two to three years, and mutations in the ligand-binding domain of ESR1 are a major mechanism by which tumors escape estrogen deprivation. These mutations are rare at initial metastatic diagnosis, detected in fewer than 5 percent of patients before first-line therapy, but they emerge over time under the selective pressure of aromatase inhibitors and other endocrine treatments, reaching appreciable prevalence in patients with recurrent or endocrine-resistant disease.

The clinical landscape shifted decisively in 2023 when the FDA approved elacestrant, an oral selective estrogen receptor degrader, for patients with ESR1-mutated, ER-positive/HER2-negative advanced disease that had progressed after at least one line of endocrine therapy, alongside the Guardant360 CDx assay as a companion diagnostic. A second oral SERD, imlunestrant, followed in 2025. More provocatively, the phase 3 SERENA-6 trial demonstrated that switching patients to camizestrant upon detection of an emergent ESR1 mutation during first-line treatment, while continuing the CDK4/6 inhibitor, significantly improved progression-free survival compared with continued aromatase inhibitor therapy, with a hazard ratio of 0.44. The earlier PADA-1 trial had already shown a similar benefit for mutation-guided switching to fulvestrant. Together, these results argue that serial monitoring for ESR1 mutations before radiologic progression could fundamentally change how first-line therapy is managed.

Against that backdrop, the new study set out to quantify how often ESR1 testing actually occurs, when mutations appear during first-line treatment, and which patients get tested. Among the 7,772 patients who initiated first-line therapy, only 222, or 3 percent, had an ESR1 test result reported in the 90 days before treatment began, and just 1,355, or 17 percent, were tested at any point during first-line therapy. Even among patients who moved on to a second line of treatment, fewer than a quarter had been tested on or before the start of that line. Testing rates did climb over the study period, rising from 11 percent of patients diagnosed in 2018 and 2019 to 19 percent in 2020 and 2021 and 22 percent in 2022 through 2024, but the authors emphasize that the vast majority of tumors were never interrogated for this actionable biomarker.

The mechanics of testing also revealed a heavy reliance on tissue rather than blood. Of the 1,595 tests performed during first-line therapy, 60 percent used tissue specimens while 40 percent used liquid biopsies that detect circulating tumor DNA. Nearly all tests, 96 percent, were next-generation sequencing assays, with Foundation Medicine and Guardant serving as the most common testing providers. The median turnaround time from specimen collection to result reporting was 28 days, although for a quarter of tests more than 12 weeks elapsed before results were available, a lag that matters when treatment decisions may hinge on timely mutation detection. Guideline recommendations from ASCO updated in 2023 favor ctDNA-based testing at progression precisely because it enables less invasive, serial monitoring.

Perhaps the most clinically consequential finding concerns the timing of mutation emergence. Using the date each specimen was collected, rather than the date results were reported, the researchers calculated that ESR1 test positivity was 6.7 percent among specimens provided at baseline, rising to 23 percent for specimens collected 9 to 12 months into first-line therapy, 38 percent at 15 to 18 months, and 40 percent at 18 to 24 months. Critically, mutations were detected in specimens collected across every time interval, demonstrating that ESR1 mutations can emerge at essentially any point during treatment rather than clustering predictably around a single window. This dynamic, rolling pattern of emergence echoes kinetics data from PADA-1, where cumulative incidence approached 40 percent before or at progression but instantaneous detection rates varied unevenly across the treatment course.

The spectrum of mutations observed reinforced known biology. In the secondary clinico-genomic cohort, the most common variants were D538G, found in 43 percent of mutated tumors, followed by Y537S at 30 percent and E380Q at 23 percent, all canonical ligand-binding domain alterations. Multiple ESR1 variants coexisted in 19 percent of mutated tumors. Among patients whose tumors acquired ESR1 mutations during first-line therapy, co-mutations were frequent: PIK3CA alterations appeared in 38 percent of those tested, BRCA1 or BRCA2 alterations in 10 percent, AKT1 in 4 percent, and PTEN in under 3 percent, underscoring that ESR1 is one of several resistance mechanisms at work in these tumors.

Who gets tested also proved informative. Patients tested during first-line therapy were demographically similar to those not tested, with comparable ages, sexes, races, and rates of liver metastases, though tested patients were somewhat more likely to receive care in community oncology practices, a pattern the authors caution may reflect documentation differences rather than true practice variation. Prior endocrine therapy exposure emerged as a meaningful correlate of baseline positivity: among patients with recurrent disease previously treated with aromatase inhibitor in the early-stage setting, 22 percent of those tested before first-line therapy harbored ESR1 mutations, and positivity rose to 21 percent among patients with two or more years of prior endocrine therapy, compared with 10 percent among those with less than a year of exposure.

The study’s limitations temper some interpretations. Because testing was not standard of care for much of the period studied, tested patients cannot be assumed to represent the broader population, and positivity rates may be overestimates if testing was prompted by unmeasured signals of disease worsening. Most patients were never tested, and those who were typically provided only a single specimen. The small number of specimens in some time intervals limited the precision of positivity estimates. Nonetheless, the consistency of the findings with randomized trial kinetics data lends credibility to the central conclusion: ESR1 mutations are a dynamic, time-dependent feature of first-line treatment, and one-time or infrequent testing is structurally incapable of catching them reliably. In SERENA-6, a single test detected only half of emergent mutations, while two to five serial tests detected up to 90 percent.

The authors argue that the observed testing shortfall represents a concrete opportunity. With mutation-guided switching now supported by randomized evidence linking early detection to prolonged progression-free survival, delayed deterioration in patient-reported outcomes, and better maintenance of health-related quality of life, frequent ctDNA-based surveillance during first-line therapy could allow oncologists to intercept endocrine resistance before scans confirm progression. As oral SERDs multiply and guidelines increasingly endorse molecular monitoring, this real-world dataset serves as both a benchmark and a warning: the science of anticipatory, adaptive oncology is ready, but routine practice has not yet caught up with it.

Subject of Research: Real-world ESR1 mutation testing patterns and emergence during first-line treatment of ER-positive/HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer in the United States

Article Title: Real-world estrogen receptor alpha 1 (ESR1) testing patterns and results for ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer in the United States, 2018–2024

Article References: Meisel, J., Pham, T., Chen, C., Kris, A., & Roose, J. (2026). Real-world estrogen receptor alpha 1 (ESR1) testing patterns and results for ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer in the United States, 2018–2024. Breast Cancer Research and Treatment, 219(2), Article 8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10549-026-08060-x

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s10549-026-08060-x

Keywords: ESR1 mutation, metastatic breast cancer, endocrine therapy resistance, liquid biopsy, circulating tumor DNA, SERD, elacestrant, camizestrant, SERENA-6, next-generation sequencing, CDK4/6 inhibitor, biomarker testing