Rare earth elements are a group of 17 chemically similar metals critical to the manufacture of a vast array of technologies, ranging from cell phones and laptops to electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy turbines. Approximately half of the rare earths mined globally today end up in high-performance magnets, components integral to everything from fighter aircraft and wind turbines to the electric motors powering the rapidly growing sector of battery electric vehicles. As global demand for these essential elements escalates, the need for diversified and reliable supplies has never been more urgent.

The study, led by University of Michigan’s emeritus faculty member Stephen Kesler and sustainable systems professor Greg Keoleian, projects a steady climb in global rare earth mineral demand — from 91 kilotons in 2024 to about 150 kilotons projected by 2040. Despite this growth, the United States currently accounts for a mere 11% of global rare earth mining, a stark contrast to China’s overwhelming market share. This imbalance poses not only economic challenges but also significant national security risks, given the vital applications of rare earths in defense and critical technologies.

Researchers undertaking this comprehensive survey delved into the geological and economic potential of each deposit by assessing three main parameters: tonnage, grade, and total rare earth oxide content. Tonnage quantifies the sheer amount of rare earth-bearing rock in situ, while grade indicates the concentration of targeted elements, a critical factor influencing the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of mining operations. The team also factored in complicating elements, such as thorium — a radioactive byproduct often intermingled with rare earth minerals — whose safe disposal elevates production costs and regulatory hurdles.

While the findings reveal that aside from the Mountain Pass mine in California, which is the only operational rare earth mine in North America, most domestic deposits exhibit lower quality than those exploited by China and Australia, the margins are not insurmountable. Kesler emphasizes that although these domestic deposits may not yet match international standards in terms of grade and purity, they remain promising candidates to underpin a resilient supply chain — especially if prices remain elevated and government policy strategically supports their development.

A crucial dimension highlighted in the research is the chemical composition and categorization of rare earth elements into light and heavy varieties, each with distinct technological roles. Light rare earths, more abundant and predominantly found in U.S. deposits, offer exceptional magnetic properties essential for a wide range of products. Heavy rare earth elements, gathered in larger quantities in Canadian deposits, enhance magnetic stability at high temperatures, a property treasured in high-performance applications. This division suggests that a North American partnership, leveraging U.S. light rare earths and Canadian heavy rare earths, could optimize resource exploitation and industrial synergy.

The historical context adds an additional layer of urgency. Rare earth mining in the U.S. diminished sharply post-1980s, coinciding with China’s rise as the global supplier. During that time, rare earth elements mined in the U.S. were typically exported for processing overseas, underscoring a glaring vulnerability. Establishing an integrated domestic processing infrastructure alongside mining operations is critical to eliminating this supply chain bottleneck and ensuring strategic autonomy.

Greg Keoleian underscores the strategic importance of these materials: classified as critical minerals, rare earth elements are not only integral to multiple industrial sectors and technological innovations but also essential to national security. Disruptions in their supply chain could cascade into broader economic and geopolitical ramifications, underscoring why securing domestic sources and processing capabilities is imperative, especially as the world pivots to clean energy technologies.

Encouragingly, the study was conducted with the support of Ford Motor Company, reflecting the automotive industry’s growing recognition of rare earth elements’ indispensable role in electromobility. The research team plans to extend their analysis by evaluating how adequately domestic supplies — combined with improvements in processing and recovery rates of key elements like neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium — can meet burgeoning demand through 2050 for electric vehicles and other emerging technologies.

The technological and economic implications are profound. Rare earth mining in North America could entail higher production costs due to lower grades and the presence of complicating elements; however, the researchers suggest that these could be offset by savings accrued in downstream processing and manufacturing stages, which would benefit from localized supply chains. Such developments could also mitigate environmental concerns by reducing the need for excessive mining globally while encouraging responsible resource stewardship on domestic soil.

At its core, this study offers a measured, data-driven framework for policymakers and industry leaders to evaluate rare earth deposits systematically, avoiding premature overinvestment in marginal sites and promoting a balanced development strategy. By carefully aligning resources, technological innovation, and governmental support, North America could foster a robust and environmentally sustainable rare earth industry.

In conclusion, the University of Michigan’s research lays a solid foundation for reshaping the rare earth landscape in North America. While challenges remain, the continent’s mineral assets are positioned to play a pivotal role in the global clean energy transition and technological advancement, provided that strategic initiatives are undertaken to harness their full potential. The findings underscore the importance of collaboration between scientists, industry, and government in steering the continent toward rare earth independence, ensuring economic resilience, and safeguarding national security interests.

Subject of Research: Rare earth element deposits and supply chain potential in North America
Article Title: Onshoring North American Rare Earth Mining: A Pathway to Supply Chain Resilience
News Publication Date: 2024
Web References: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092134492600251X
References: Kesler, S., Keoleian, G., Hitt, C., Cieply, J., Kim, H.C., DeKleine, R., Anderson, J., “Onshoring North American rare earth mining,” Resources, Conservation & Recycling, 2026. DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.109027
Image Credits: University of Michigan

Keywords: rare earth elements, rare earth mining, supply chain, clean energy, electric vehicles, sustainability, geology, mineral processing, critical minerals, North America, rare earth oxide, light rare earths, heavy rare earths

The study highlights an intriguing dynamic: the natural reserves of these critical minerals are predominantly located in the Global South. This geographical concentration is poised to reshape the geopolitics of energy and global trade, as many countries may find themselves reliant on a different set of suppliers than they currently depend on for fossil fuels. This dependence shift raises questions about the security of energy supplies, trade partnerships, and economic resilience in a future dominated by renewable energy.

Steve Davis, the lead author of the study and a professor at Stanford’s Doerr School of Sustainability, articulated a key takeaway: the energy security benefits of moving away from fossil fuels often go unrecognized. While many focus on the potential problems arising from this transition—such as the increased demand for new minerals—Davis argues that reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels in favor of diversifying supply chains for critical minerals could present a net gain for energy security. This is particularly relevant for countries that are currently heavily reliant on fossil fuel imports, as they could potentially reduce their vulnerability to supply disruptions by fostering new trade relationships.

The implications for the United States are striking given its status as a major oil and gas producer. While the U.S. has vast fossil fuel reserves, it possesses limited deposits of the critical minerals necessary for renewable technologies. Despite this challenge, the research suggests that a well-managed transition to decarbonization could enhance U.S. energy security by facilitating new trade partnerships, thereby reducing the risks associated with fossil fuel dependency. Currently, the U.S. imports substantial amounts of crude oil and petroleum products from various countries, including Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Colombia. Transitioning to solar and wind energy, although requiring additional imports of critical minerals, could yield significant benefits in energy independence and sustainability.

The analysis conducted by the researchers utilized a sophisticated approach to evaluate a multitude of variables related to energy transitions and international trade. By constructing a comprehensive database of countries possessing reserves of various energy resources—including oil, gas, and essential minerals—the study modeled complex scenarios for achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2060. Utilizing climate scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the researchers assessed how various energy mixes—incorporating differing proportions of nuclear, solar, and wind energy—impacted each nation’s energy security.

Central to their analysis was the new “trade risk index,” a tool specifically designed to quantify the risks associated with resource imports, domestic reserves, and market concentration. This index enables policymakers to assess how vulnerable their energy sectors may be under different decarbonization scenarios. For nations expecting to secure a sustainable energy future, understanding these dynamics is paramount.

The findings indicate that retaining existing trade networks while transitioning to a net-zero energy system could lead to an average decline in trade-related risks of about 19%. However, enriching and diversifying these networks could halve these risks. Remarkably, the study identified that nations could further reduce their reliance on imports by enhancing recycling rates and developing more sustainable energy technologies, thereby neutralizing some trade risks linked to mineral availability. This emphasizes the critical role of innovation and responsible resource management in the energy transition.

As countries move to decarbonize, the study pointed out that different energy mixes would yield varied trade security outcomes. For instance, a hypothetical U.S. energy landscape composed of approximately 70-75% renewable energy sources, supplemented by 15-20% fossil fuels, and 10% nuclear energy, emerged as a potentially effective solution in minimizing trade risks associated with the energy transition. Currently, fossil fuels account for about 83% of U.S. energy consumption, underscoring a pressing need for transformation.

The analysis concludes with a compelling assertion: energy diversification and reduced reliance on fossil fuels tangibly improve national energy security. The results suggest that countries prioritizing a reduction in fossil dependence can reap the most substantial rewards regarding their energy security landscape. Diversification serves as a protective mechanism against potential geopolitical conflicts or natural disasters that could disrupt the supply chains of single mineral sources.

This transition to clean energy presents a transformative moment in the global energy arena, highlighting the interconnectedness of resource availability, trade relationships, and environmental sustainability. Future energy strategies will need to evolve alongside technological advancements, tapping into the potential of both innovation and international collaboration. The findings of this research emphasize that, as nations navigate the complex terrain of energy transitions, informed policies and proactive engagement with the realities of global resource distribution will be essential for achieving sustainable energy futures.

Subject of Research: Transition to Clean Energy Technologies and their Impact on Energy Security
Article Title: Trade risks to energy security in net-zero emissions energy scenarios
News Publication Date: April 9, 2025
Web References: Nature Climate Change DOI
References: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Image Credits: Not provided
Keywords: clean energy, energy security, fossil fuels, critical minerals, geopolitics, renewable energy, decarbonization, trade risk index, resource management, sustainability.