The findings reveal a paradox at the heart of the reserve’s management. Roughly 77 percent of respondents knew the MPA existed, a proportion statistically well above chance. Yet only about 8 percent had ever attended a consultation or meeting related to the MPA, and just 5.5 percent reported any knowledge of the reserve’s budget or institutional information disclosure. This gap between passive awareness and active engagement, the authors argue, signals a governance-actor mismatch: formal institutions are visible to local people but not meaningfully connected to them through participatory processes.

Information pathways themselves were uneven. Fewer than half of respondents received MPA information from official sources such as fisheries offices or local administration, while nearly a third relied on informal channels like local leaders. More than 23 percent reported receiving no information at all, and NGO involvement was negligible at under 2 percent. Enforcement, meanwhile, was concentrated in a security-oriented structure, with the coastguard identified by nearly 84 percent of respondents as the primary law enforcement body. Most respondents said conflicts were resolved unilaterally by authorities rather than through consultation, with only about 10 percent reporting stakeholder-based dispute resolution.

The social profile of the resource users helps explain why participation and livelihood support matter so much. Respondents averaged 37.6 years of age, lived in households of about 5.4 people, and more than 82 percent had worked in marine resource-based livelihoods for over a decade. With such deep dependence on fishing and related occupations, conservation restrictions carry real household risks when alternative income options are absent. Fewer than 30 percent of those surveyed had been consulted before the MPA’s establishment, 57 percent reported receiving no support during fishing restriction periods, and 81 percent believed conservation benefits were not distributed fairly.

The study’s environmental indicators, drawn from remote sensing and secondary datasets, reveal a system under pressure that goes beyond institutional design. Sea surface temperature within the MPA’s direct influence zone showed a statistically significant warming trend between 2016 and 2025, confirmed by both linear regression and Mann-Kendall monotonic trend testing. Cyclone frequency, by contrast, showed no significant temporal trend over the same period and did not correlate significantly with temperature variability. District-level marine fish capture in Bhola, Patuakhali, and Noakhali rose early in the observation period but declined in recent years, though the authors treat this only as contextual fisheries information rather than evidence of MPA-level ecological change.

Land-cover analysis using combined Sentinel-2 and Landsat imagery achieved an overall classification accuracy of 92.83 percent with a Kappa coefficient of 0.89. Classified mangrove area showed a net increase relative to the 2016 baseline, while land area decreased by roughly 3.6 percent. The researchers are careful to interpret these patterns cautiously, noting that Nijhum Dwip sits within the highly dynamic Meghna estuarine system, where sediment transport, tidal inundation, and data availability can shift land cover from year to year. The mangrove signal, they stress, is a classified land-cover change, not verified ecological recovery attributable to the MPA.

Statistical tests reinforced the diagnosis of institutional disconnection. Awareness of the MPA showed no significant relationship with participation in meetings or consultations, and training support programs likewise showed no association with participation outcomes. Prior consultation was not significantly linked to perceptions of fair benefit distribution. The authors caution that low participation rates produced small cell counts and wide confidence intervals, meaning some relationships indicate possible trends rather than strong statistical evidence. Across the board, however, the pattern is consistent: governance signals, actor conditions, and interaction processes remain weakly coupled.

The diagnostic framing is deliberate. The study does not claim to measure whether the MPA has improved biodiversity or fish stocks, acknowledging that a six-year period is likely too short to establish stable ecological outcomes and that no non-MPA control site was available for comparison. Instead, it identifies where governance arrangements, livelihood constraints, and environmental pressures may constrain long-term management. The researchers note that district-level catch data, available only at coarse resolution, cannot serve as evidence of MPA effectiveness, and that remote-sensing outputs carry inherent uncertainty in mobile deltaic environments.

The recommendations emerging from the study focus on operationalizing participation mechanisms outlined in the official Nijhum Dwip Management Plan 2021-2035, including Union Conservation Committees with representation from registered fishers. The authors call for linking livelihood development, such as training, credit access, and safety-net programs, directly to verified fishers affected by conservation rules, and for disseminating budgets and regulations through local notice boards and community meetings rather than websites many villagers cannot access. They also urge coupling habitat protection with climate-responsive planning, given rising sea temperatures and shifting land cover. The lessons extend beyond Bangladesh: the findings echo global evidence that marine protected areas succeed as governance systems, not merely as conservation designations, and that notification alone cannot substitute for genuine dialogue, transparency, and equitable benefit-sharing with the communities whose futures depend on the sea.

Subject of Research: Diagnostic assessment of Marine Protected Area governance and environmental pressures using the Social-Ecological System framework in coastal Bangladesh

Article Title: Diagnostic assessment of Marine Protected Area performance using the Social-Ecological System framework in coastal Bangladesh

Article References: Raze, M. S., Yabar, H., & Mizunoya, T. (2026). Diagnostic assessment of Marine Protected Area performance using the Social-Ecological System framework in coastal Bangladesh. Discover Oceans, 3(1), Article 57. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44289-026-00173-x

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s44289-026-00173-x

Keywords: Nijhum Dwip MPA, marine protected areas, Social-Ecological System framework, coastal governance, Bangladesh, fisher livelihoods, sea surface temperature, mangrove land cover, cyclone frequency, participatory management, benefit-sharing equity, Bay of Bengal