The review, led by Shishir Chandrakar and Krishna Kumar Chandra of Guru Ghasidas Vishwavidyalaya together with Bhavana Dixit of Chhattisgarh Rajya Niti Aayog, is deliberately framed as a critical synthesis rather than a new empirical study. The authors screened more than 90,000 records from Web of Science, Scopus and Google Scholar, narrowing these through duplicate removal, title and abstract screening, and full-text assessment to a final pool of 223 publications meeting rigorous methodological criteria. The twenty-year window they define as long-term is not arbitrary: it spans four assessment cycles of the India State of Forest Report, covers the entire post-2005 period against which India’s Nationally Determined Contributions and forest-carbon pledges are tracked, and is long enough to capture slow processes such as soil organic carbon turnover and stand-level biomass accumulation that shorter studies simply cannot resolve.

The technical picture that emerges is one of enormous variability and genuine alarm. Aboveground biomass carbon in Central Indian forests fluctuated between 26.4 and 131.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare across the reviewed studies, while soil organic carbon stocks ranged from 24.6 to 50.2 megagrams per hectare. Total biomass in some landscapes reached 338.3 megagrams per hectare, and closed natural forests held considerably more carbon, around 208.22 megagrams per hectare, than open forests at roughly 95.11. Intact stands of mixed sal and teak performed best, and carbon stock densities across various forest types spanned roughly 50 to 180 megagrams per hectare, depending on tree density, species diversity, age structure and management history. These ranges matter because carbon accounting schemes, carbon markets and national inventories all depend on knowing how much carbon a given hectare actually stores.

What makes the findings striking is the disconnect they reveal between national aggregates and regional reality. Nationally, Indian forests remain recognised as vital carbon sinks, holding an estimated 7,124 million tonnes of carbon, and national reports recorded a net increase of 377 million tonnes of carbon between 1995 and 2005. Yet the granular, site-level evidence compiled in this review shows that vulnerable ecosystems in Central India are actively degrading and releasing carbon even as headline statistics improve. In one disturbed tropical forest landscape, approximately 1,851.8 hectares were lost between 2000 and 2020, largely to agricultural conversion, producing a net loss of 0.065 teragrams of biomass and roughly 59 gigagrams of carbon, equivalent to about 216 gigagrams of carbon dioxide. National averages, the authors argue, may be masking precisely the localised declines that matter most for conservation and climate policy.

The drivers of this carbon loss are neither mysterious nor singular. Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion, mining, urbanisation and infrastructure development remains the dominant force, but the review highlights a web of interacting pressures that together erode carbon stocks. Overgrazing suppresses regeneration and shifts species composition toward lower-biomass stands. Repeated low-intensity fires, many of them human-ignited, kill trees and reduce both biomass and soil carbon availability. Linear infrastructure such as roads and transmission lines fragments habitat and creates edge effects that elevate tree mortality and fire risk. Fuelwood extraction has a long history in the region, with an estimated deficit of 86 million tonnes recorded as far back as 1996, and excessive livestock grazing has stunted forest floor regeneration in around 67 percent of national parks and 83 percent of wildlife sanctuaries. Timber extraction alone accounted for roughly half of degradation in some studied landscapes, followed by fuelwood collection, fires and grazing.

Climate change is compounding, rather than replacing, these anthropogenic pressures. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects global temperature rises of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius alongside doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide by the end of the century, and Central India sits squarely in the crosshairs. Vulnerability assessments rank Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha among the most climate-exposed regions in the country. Projections summarised in the review suggest that by 2050, large areas of tropical moist deciduous and semi-evergreen forest, covering some 520,280 square kilometres of India’s most dominant forest types, will fall within climatic hotspots, facing altered precipitation, elevated temperatures and increased drought and fire. Conflicting model scenarios add to the uncertainty: greenhouse gas forcing models predict warmer and wetter conditions that could boost productivity, while aerosol-inclusive models foresee drier, water-stressed futures that would accelerate the shift from moist to drier forest types.

Perhaps most unsettling is the evidence that extreme climate events can temporarily flip the sign of the regional carbon budget. During drought episodes, plant respiration in Central India’s deciduous forests has been documented to exceed primary productivity, releasing an estimated 210 million tonnes of carbon annually under those conditions. Drought-linked tree mortality accelerates decay-driven carbon release and raises fire probability, and El Niño-associated droughts globally amplify exactly this pattern. Soils, which hold the largest share of India’s forest carbon at over 50 percent of total stocks, are particularly exposed: decomposition rates respond directly to warming and shifting moisture, and the review notes a clear decline of soil organic carbon with depth, meaning topsoil degradation translates disproportionately into carbon loss.

The synthesis does not end on a purely pessimistic note, and its prescriptions are unusually concrete. Sustainable forest management, assisted natural regeneration of degraded lands, mixed-species planting with native species, soil moisture conservation, fire-line maintenance and invasive species control all emerge as proven levers for restoring carbon storage. India’s Nationally Determined Contributions target the sequestration of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of additional carbon dioxide and the restoration of 26 million hectares of degraded land by 2030, and the rehabilitation of degraded forests is estimated to offer a further 1,008.49 teragrams of carbon mitigation potential over 75 years. Species diversity itself matters: taxonomic richness and structural diversity correlate strongly with aboveground biomass through niche complementarity, and dominant regional species such as Diospyros melanoxylon, Butea monosperma and Shorea robusta are key carbon contributors. Monoculture plantations, by contrast, typically store less carbon and are more vulnerable to pests and climate extremes, a nuance the authors stress against simplistic area-based afforestation targets.

Community governance emerges as perhaps the decisive variable. Madhya Pradesh holds India’s largest forest area and second-largest carbon stock at 608 million tonnes, with Chhattisgarh close behind at 505 million tonnes, and both states sit at the heart of the Green India Mission and World Bank-supported Ecosystem Services Improvement Project. Chhattisgarh has been actively financing Community Forest Resource management plans developed by gram sabhas, the village assemblies empowered under the Forest Rights Act. Yet the review documents persistent friction: village councils often struggle to access funds because of complex administrative prerequisites and lingering resistance from state forest departments, while growing investment interest in forest lands for mining, carbon schemes and ecotourism raises concerns about pressure on Adivasi territories. The authors argue that genuine carbon mitigation in Central India hinges on authentic devolution of rights and finance to forest communities rather than on the scale of announced programmes.

Ultimately, the review positions Central India as both a warning and a test bed. The evidence for a region-wide shift to net carbon source status still rests on a limited number of regional studies rather than a dense monitoring network, and the authors are candid that belowground carbon dynamics remain under-sampled and methodological differences across studies complicate comparisons. But the direction of travel is clear enough that the distinction between national gains and regional losses cannot be ignored. Meeting India’s forest-carbon commitments, the synthesis concludes, will depend less on planting trees across aggregate areas and more on safeguarding the quality, species composition and soil integrity of existing natural forests in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha. The authors call for harmonised long-term monitoring networks that integrate field inventories, remote sensing and soil carbon measurement, calibrated to Forest Survey of India assessment cycles. In a region where ecological sensitivity and socio-economic dependence on forests converge at their most intense, the next two decades will determine whether these landscapes slip further into carbon deficit or recover their role as durable climate allies.

Subject of Research: Twenty-year synthesis of forest carbon dynamics, stocks and sink-to-source transition in Central Indian tropical forests

Article Title: A critical synthesis of forest carbon dynamics in central india over two decades

Article References: Chandrakar, S., Chandra, K. K., & Dixit, B. (2026). A critical synthesis of forest carbon dynamics in central india over two decades. Discover Forests, 2(1), Article 64. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44415-026-00123-7

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s44415-026-00123-7

Keywords: forest carbon dynamics, Central India, carbon sequestration, soil organic carbon, deforestation, REDD+, sustainable forest management, climate change, systematic review, India State of Forest Report, community forest rights, dry deciduous forests